NBA Finals Head-To-Head Best Bets
The NBA Finals begin on Thursday. Some would look at that break as agonizing, but the extra time gives bettors a chance to really dive into the different markets around the series.
Today, I have decided to look at the head-to-head markets for the NBA Finals. At DraftKings we can find head-to-head props for players in categories likes points, rebounds and assists. There are not as many options to be found as there are for series leaders, but it is a fascinating market with plenty of opportunity.
Head-To-Head Points
In the article about series leader props I noted that the points market was a two-horse race between Luka Doncic and Jayson Tatum. Here, we have the race actually priced.
Doncic deserves to be favored over Tatum, but I can’t get to this degree. The implied probability of Doncic scoring more points in the series than Tatum at this price is 71.4%. I believe a fairer price to be in the neighborhood of -225 or 69.2%. It’s not a massive discrepancy from the market, but it is a difference in opinion.
Doncic has been scoring at an insane rate in this postseason. He comes into this game with 125 more points than Tatum in three more games played. However, this is for the series and Tatum can certainly score at the pace of Doncic.
Dallas does not have a true defensive match for Tatum. P.J. Washington is likely drawing the assignment, but in two games in the regular season Tatum scored 21 points on 7-of-10 shooting against him. Tatum will hunt both centers for the Mavericks and Kyrie Irving as well.
Speaking of, Irving’s head-to-head with Jaylen Brown is fascinating.
Irving has scored more total points to this point of the postseason, but that is due to playing more minutes and games. Brown has averaged more points (25.0) than Irving (22.8), and has been a much more efficient player.
Boston is going to hunt Irving throughout this series on defense. How that factors into his efficiency remains to be seen, but there is an argument to be made that he will be quite taxed.
Brown also figures to have more scoring opportunities. He has a higher usage rate in the playoffs (27.6%) than Irving does (25.2%). He has an edge in field goal attempts per game as well. Brown has also been very efficient this postseason, averaging 125.4 points per 100 shot attempts while shooting 54.1% from the floor.
Between the two props in this market at DraftKings, I’d be much more intrigued by Brown over Irving.
Head-To-Head Rebounds
The matchup that immediately draws my interest here is the top one.
Daniel Gafford has seen his minutes decline throughout the postseason. Against Los Angeles he averaged just 18.2 minutes per game. His minutes increased in the beginning of the series against Oklahoma City, but in Game 6 he played just 19 minutes to 30 for Dereck Lively. In the Western Conference Finals he averaged 20.7 minutes per game in the contests that Lively played in.
Gafford has clearly seen a dip in his role, and he is subpar rebounder for his position.
In the playoffs he has grabbed just 16.4% of opponent missed shot attempts, which places him in the 32nd percentile of centers in defensive rebounding rate. Gafford is a better offensive rebounder (9.8%), but those opportunities are not as abundant.
Brown not only averages more rebounds per game this postseason (6.1), but he is an extremely effective rebounder for his position. His 13.3% defensive rebounding rate ranks in the 81st percentile of guards. It’s also not that far behind Gafford, a center.
The discrepancy in their roles and minutes plays a huge role here too. Brown will average nearly 16 more minutes per game, and even more in tight contests with a title on the line. Betting Brown to win this battle is an extremely tempting proposition.
The other two head-to-head props in this category I do not feel strongly about.
P.J. Washington deserves to be favored over Jrue Holiday, especially if the Celtics follow through with their gameplan of guarding him with Kristaps Porzingis.
If that is the case, Washington will find himself as a screener for Doncic more often than usual. They will surely ask Washington to pop out to the perimeter for some catch-and-shoot attempts, but he will be a roll man more often than usual in that role. That could lead to more rebounding opportunities.
Tatum also deserves to be favored over Doncic in this market, but as mentioned in the piece on series leaders he is more viable as an option to lead the series in rebounding at -105 which is available at multiple shops.
Head-To-Head Assists
Irving is a skilled passer who is going to have the ball in his hands to create. He averages 47.6 passes made per game this postseason and 9.7 potential assists. That has led to 5.2 assists per game overall.
Having said that, White does more with his passes. He only averages 6.9 potential assists per game, but his assist-to-usage ratio (1.03) ranks in the 78th percentile of his position. Irving is well below him in that category (0.81).
White also has the benefit of the better personnel when it comes to passes ending in a bucket.
Holiday has shot 48.5% on catch-and-shoot attempts in the postseason. Pritchard has hit 38.9% of those attempts, Brown and Porzingis are at 36.6% and 36.4% respectively. The list goes on.
This is a market where I believed there was a potential opportunity to play the underdog, but a dive into the numbers brought me to where the market is at right now. Perhaps a play comes about if the line moves too strongly in one direction, but that is unlikely when it comes to a niche market like this.
