We’re rolling along with our daily coverage of the NBA at VSiN, so now is a great time to be a subscriber. Our 24/7 live programming provides consistent analysis on day-by-day matchups, but we also hit on futures markets quite a bit. We do the same over here on the website. Well, several awards markets already look determined, despite the fact that we’re only halfway through the NBA season. Victor Wembanyama winning Defensive Player of the Year feels like a done-deal, and it would take a lot for Kenny Atkinson to lose Coach of the Year at this point. However, when scanning around a bit, it still feels like there’s some value to be had — even in markets with clear frontrunners. Two awards that I’m especially interested in are Most Valuable Player and Rookie of the Year. That said, keep reading for thoughts on both.
NBA MVP Odds
Shai Gilgeous Alexander is currently a -320 favorite to win MVP, and there’s no denying the Thunder guard has been tremendous this year. He’s averaging 32.1 points, 6.0 assists, 5.3 rebounds and 2.1 steals per game, and he’s shooting 52.8% from the floor, 35.1% from 3 and 90.6% from the charity stripe. Gilgeous-Alexander also happens to have a career-high mark in Dunks & Threes’ Estimated Plus-Minus (+8.8), putting him in the 100th percentile in that and Estimated Wins (12.0). Across the board, Gilgeous-Alexander has improved upon a 2023-24 season in which he nearly won MVP. The Thunder are also the top team in the Western Conference, and they currently have the best record in basketball.
Given everything I just mentioned, it’d be foolish to say that Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t the MVP frontrunner. However, as always, Nikola Jokic is part of the conversation. And, at +240 odds, it’s hard not to like the idea of taking a flier on him.
Voter fatigue is a very real thing. Jokic has won three of the last four MVP awards, and there are people out there that simply want to see somebody new in the winner’s circle. But Jokic hasn’t just been the MVP three times, but he has run away with it on several different occasions. So, with him now having a career year, it feels weird to say that his peak isn’t good enough for a fourth award.
This season, Jokic is averaging career highs in points per game (30.0) and assists per game (10.2). He’s also averaging 13.1 rebounds per game. Since 1969-1970, no player in the NBA has finished Top 3 in the league in points, rebounds and assists per game, but Jokic is currently in there in all three categories. He’s also shooting a career high 47.4% from 3, and he’s doing so on a career high in attempts (4.3 per game). On top of that, the Nuggets have overcome a very slow start to the season to move to fourth in the Western Conference standings. And Denver has done that with a much worse supporting cast than Jokic is used to.
Jokic is also first in the NBA in both Box Plus-Minus (14.2) and VORP (5.9), and his lead over Gilgeous-Alexander is rather large in both. So, while Dunks & Threes’ metrics favor Gilgeous-Alexander, Basketball Reference gives a slight edge to Jokic.
There’s simply no credible argument to be made that Jokic isn’t the best player in the world, so the case for Gilgeous-Alexander to be the most impactful player this season needs to be clear and obvious. And I simply can’t get on board with that line of thinking while the best player on the planet has his best year in the pros. If Jokic and the Nuggets continue to look like one of the better teams in the NBA the rest of the season, he can narrow the gap in this market.
There’s also the fact that Gilgeous-Alexander’s shot profile is a lot tougher than Jokic’s. While the Canadian is a great mid-range shooter, he consistently takes difficult shots. So, there’s a decent shot his efficiency dips a little down the stretch — especially as fatigue becomes a factor later in the year.
NBA Rookie of the Year Odds
I’m already sitting on Stephon Castle and Alexandre Sarr ROY tickets. I got Castle at 10-1 and Sarr at 13-1 before the year. However, it feels like we’re trending towards Kel’el Ware winning this award.
Last year, as Chet Holmgren put up better numbers than Victor Wembanyama to start the season, we still slowly started to see the Frenchman transform into a betting favorite in the market before he had actually overtaken the Thunder big as the league’s best rookie. That was because people — including oddsmakers — were projecting how the rest of the season would go. Holmgren was leveling off; Wembanyama was ascending. Well, Ware isn’t the Rookie of the Year right now. He’s only averaging 8.6 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.0 steals per game this season. However, he’s up to 13.5 points, 7.1 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game in January, and the last five games have been monstrous. In that span, Ware is averaging 18.6 points, 9.8 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game. If things keep going this way, there’s nobody that can stop him from taking home these honors.
There’s really no reason to believe Ware is going to tail off either. Sure, he might slow down a bit, but Erik Spoelstra now sees the value in playing him next to Bam Adebayo. They have two massive bodies to defend and rebound together, and Ware is such a good floor spacer (42.6% 3PT) that the team isn’t sacrificing much of anything playing them together offensively. Ware can also serve as the team’s vertical lob threat, allowing Adebayo to play on the ball a little more.
We also just don’t have any other high-quality Rookie of the Year candidates this year. I love the way Castle impacts winning for the Spurs, but his advanced stats are horrible and his minutes aren’t as consistent as they should be. Meanwhile, Sarr puts up solid numbers here and there, but his team is miserable and his shooting percentages leave a lot to be desired. There’s also Jaylen Wells and Zach Edey, who are both doing great jobs of playing roles for a very good Memphis team. But both guys lack the type of big usage rates you normally see in a ROY winner. They’re pieces for the Grizzlies, not needle-movers.
All in all, it might not be all that sexy to grab +135 odds on Ware right now, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t worth throwing a couple of units on. The biggest deterrents at this point would be a significant injury or a trade. Miami is in the running for De’Aaron Fox, and we are probably going to see a Jimmy Butler deal soon. But I can’t imagine Ware would be a part of either move, and the big man’s minutes likely won’t be impacted by anything that happens at the deadline.
