The Philadelphia 76ers are a hot topic right now in the NBA. After the team’s most recent loss – a 106-89 defeat at the hands of the Miami Heat – the team reportedly had a meeting amongst players and coaches.
Philadelphia is 2-11 SU – tied with Washington for worst record in the NBA – and 3-10 ATS on the season. The odds on it to win the Eastern Conference and the NBA Finals are starting to drift. At DraftKings, the 76ers are +1100 to win the East and +2500 to win the Finals. By comparison, their fellow cellar-dwelling Wizards are +100000 to win the Finals.
We know Philadelphia is better. We also know that this team has not been healthy. Should we really be wringing our hands over this start to the season?
Joel Embiid has played 90 total minutes this season. Paul George has appeared in just seven games. Tyrese Maxey has not played since Nov. 6 and won’t be back anytime soon. The team’s three best players have not played a second together.
As a bettor, I really gravitate toward buying low or selling high. At this point, we’re reaching the low for Philadelphia. But, something is holding me back. So, for this edition of the column I brought in some help.
Zach Cohen – VSiN senior editor and former Hardwood Handicappers host – and I were talking about my dilemma. Cohen is adamant that the situation is not as bad as it seems in Philadelphia. So I had a chat with him about it, and asked him to make his case for buying on bad news in the City of Brotherly Love.
Jonathan Von Tobel: Just make your case. I believe the bar is low in the Eastern Conference. I believe that they have plenty of roadway left to get back into this thing. But, I am losing faith very quickly that this is a team that once fully healthy, it is going to be competitive. What is the case for Philly?
Zach Cohen: It’s pretty much what you just said: There’s just so much time left. There are 69 games left. To get to the Hawks’ record from last year – which is the 10th seed and would put them in the play-in – they would need to be just 34-35 in these next 69 games which I feel very good about them getting to. To get to the sixth seed they would need to be 20 games over .500 for the rest of the season, and I don’t even think that is crazy.
Look at their schedule for December. I don’t think it would be insane if they were 13-15 or 12-16 by the start of the new year which would then be game on, in my opinion. If they are close to .500 by the start of January and they have Tyrese Maxey back and both Joel Embiid and Paul George are playing – those guys are going to play well together. It is almost unprecedented that we are panicking this much about a team that has not had one minute with its three best players together.
Von Tobel: I agree with pretty much everything you are saying. My problem is this: Let’s say they make it to the play-in tournament. Let’s say they are the best team, that Milwaukee found its way out of the bottom four. Philadelphia wins the seventh seed or the eighth seed and you must face either Cleveland or Boston, which seems very likely at this point. Do we trust that the 76ers are going to be good enough to overcome either one of those teams?
My problem is that I do not know exactly what we are buying if they are turning it around. Am I buying NBA Finals? Am I buying Eastern Conference? Do we truly believe that those two things are attainable?
Cohen: I would be buying Philadelphia to win the Eastern Conference. I am looking for about 20-1 or better. I think that if they lose to Memphis [on Wednesday] the panic is going to continue and you’re going to be able to get them at 18-1 or about that price. I think they can beat Cleveland. I would not give them a great chance against Boston – I wouldn’t give any team a chance against Boston right now – but if you can avoid them and you have 20-1 there is probably a really good chance they are going to be the second-best team in the East.
With Embiid [on the floor] they are already at 109.4 points allowed per 100 possessions. That would be good for fifth or sixth in the league. The net rating is -21.8 per 100 possessions with Embiid on the court, but there is zero chance that that stays there. Offensively they are going to be much better. They’re shooting 32.2% from 3-point range this year. They were 36.7% last year, so there is definitely positive regression coming. That is why I think they’re going to be able to get into the seventh or sixth seed range in the Eastern Conference.
I’m not a big Cleveland believer. I think New York is probably going to end up right where I had them before the season. I think that second spot is wide open and this is going to work out pretty nicely for them. I know it is crazy to take away positives considering how bad it has been this year, but getting the start that Jared McCain has had is going to give them crazy firepower. That lineup with Maxey, McCain, George and Embiid with whoever the fifth starter is going to be is going to be very good.
Von Tobel: Yeah that final product once we get to March or April is going to be great. We’re probably talking about an over team, right? High-end offense and probably some pretty low-end defense. That perimeter defense looks pretty shaky on paper if it is a backcourt of McCain and Maxey with whatever wing they choose alongside George. George is going to have a lot on his plate defensively. Embiid is an impactful defender, but I don’t know if he’s going to be good enough to cover for what is going to be an average to below-average defensive backcourt.
Cohen: Honestly, I think the McCain and Maxey backcourt matches up pretty well against a Derrick White and Jrue Holiday backcourt, but not many others. I think facing two guys that are not going to have crazy, on-ball roles at guard will be really helpful for Philadelphia, because those guys would not be getting targeted all game and you can trust them to score on those guys.
But yeah, they are definitely at risk of being cooked by a Jalen Brunson or a Donovan Mitchell. But, I am so not in on the Cavaliers still. I know that is crazy. I did pick them to go over their win total in the NBA Betting Guide and I thought they would be a really good regular season team, but I don’t think they can win with the double-big lineup. Even with Evan Mobley being better.
Von Tobel: I don’t know if I like that. I have really come along on the Cavaliers. I am a very big Kenny Atkinson guy. But, that does lead me into my next question which is a non-analytics and non-betting topic: The report on Tuesday. Not only does Maxey have to call out Embiid about being late all the time, but Embiid also reportedly said he doesn’t know what is going on on the court. The intangible stuff is pretty worrisome.
Cohen: I think that was the most worrisome part about it; the subtle shot at Nick Nurse. But I did also read some positive comments from Embiid. He came out and said he wanted to get others involved and did not want to play a ball-dominant style this year. But, he also said he is going to have to be more dominant because the losing is getting tiresome.
That might be good for them because that has been their identity for the last couple years. Let Embiid go to work and have George play off that. It’s the Kevin Love and LeBron thing again: Stop trying to fit out and fit in. Let Embiid play his game and let everyone figure it out around him. I think that is the best way forward for them offensively. Because if he is dominating teams offensively then the 3-point looks get better, and he’s more engaged defensively. I just don’t think [the report] was as bad as any of those things sound when they get leaked.
Von Tobel: Let’s wrap on this: Last I wrote about how Jared McCain had thrust himself to the top of the odds board to win Rookie of the Year. He is likely going to be a big part of the 76ers’ improvement going forward. Is his role going to be big enough to win Rookie of the Year? Or are you looking elsewhere?
I’m going to start to look elsewhere, because even if he has a regular spot in the starting lineup I still think the growing usage for Embiid and George – as well as the return of Maxey – will cut into his volume and he will eventually fall back down the board. Do you think I’m wrong?
Cohen: I think you’re completely right. I think once Maxey comes back he is going to become a secondary scorer for them. I think one of the guys I would look at is Donovan Clingan now that he is starting for the Trail Blazers, and they have been playing better with him. I think at some point Portland is going to realize it doesn’t make sense to play Deandre Ayton anymore. Clingan had 17 points, 12 rebounds and 8 blocks in his first start. He had 6 points, 8 rebounds and 3 blocks in the next game. I think at some point they have to make the decision to permanently move him into the starting lineup, and I think once they do his numbers are going to look insane.
There you have it.
Cohen makes a great argument about how this could turn out for Philadelphia, and I tend to agree with him for the most part. I do believe that Cleveland is better than he is giving them credit for, and the Cavaliers’ tough loss to the Celtics last night supports that theory.
Still, the 76ers are not and have not been whole this season. They have three stars who fit perfectly together if they can get together. Perhaps they lose to Memphis tonight and we get that drop in odds we are looking for. Or, perhaps they win, and this is the start of an incredible turnaround for a team expected to do great things.
