Player props have become one of the NBA’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value beyond the standard spread or total. Each night, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from points and rebounds to assists and combo lines — using matchup data, recent performance, and betting trends to find edges. Keep reading for the top NBA player prop picks for November 17. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the NBA, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
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Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges for Monday
Below you’ll find some of the projections that stood out when looking at our OptaAI NBA Player Prop projections. Subscribers have access to hundreds of others on a daily basis!
Kel’el Ware Over 0.5 Made 3s (-168) vs. Knicks
Knicks at Heat – 7:30 pm ET
You’ll have to be willing to stomach some juiced odds in order to take Ware to make a 3 tonight, but our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.19 this evening. Ware made one of his two attempts against this same Knicks team on Friday, and he has now made at least one in back-to-back games.
Dereck Lively II Over 5.5 Rebounds (+113) vs. Timberwolves
Mavericks at Timberwolves – 8:00 pm ET
Lively ended up fouling out in only 12 minutes of action against the Blazers last night. However, he had gone for five or more rebounds in three straight games before that one. That said, Lively seems like a good play to go Over a juiced 4.5 or a plus-money 5.5 tonight. OptaAI actually has him finishing with 9.28 this evening. That’s a big edge to the Over.
Jamal Murray Over 5.5 Assists (-156) vs. Bulls
Bulls at Nuggets – 9:00 pm ET
OptaAI has Murray finishing with 7.01 assists in tonight’s meeting with Chicago. That’s a pretty big edge to the juiced Over of 5.5 tonight, but you can also grab plus-money odds on Murray to finish with at least seven assists. He has actually had at least eight in three of the last four, and he’s coming off a 12-assist game against Minnesota. Now, he’s facing a Bulls team that plays at a rapid pace.
Monday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Monday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record.
Sam Merrill Over 11.5 Points (+100) vs. Bucks
Bucks at Cavaliers – 7:00 pm ET
Our VSiN NBA Prop Bet Analyzer shows that Merrill has been one of the most profitable players to back this year. Well, I’m going to him to score at least 12 points against the Bucks tonight. Merrill has had at least 12 in three of the last four. He has also gone Over this mark in eight of the 11 games he has played this season. Tonight, he should have another great opportunity to do so. Darius Garland and Jaylon Tyson will both miss this meeting with Milwaukee, meaning Merrill should see some good minutes.
Merrill also happened to enjoy this matchup earlier in the year, going for 17 points on only 11 shots in a 118-113 win over the Bucks on October 26. There’s no reason he can’t do it again.
AJ Green Over 2.5 Made 3s (+128) vs. Cavaliers
Bucks at Cavaliers – 7:00 pm ET
Green is coming off a game in which he hit five 3s against the Lakers. He had made fewer than three in four of the previous five games, so it was nice to see him snap out of his funk and light it up again. Green is making 3.0 triples per game this season, and he has had at least three 3s in 10 of the 14 games he has played. Tonight, I like him to hit at least three again, which is available at some very favorable odds.
Green hit four 3s against this Cavaliers team on October 26, which really isn’t surprising. Cleveland is 29th in the league in guarding spot-up jumpers this season, and the team is also 28th when it comes to guarding corner 3s. As long as he can avoid foul trouble, he should get a ton of shots up here.
Bogdan Bogdanovic Over 11.5 Points (-103) vs. 76ers
Clippers at 76ers – 7:00 pm ET
Bogdanovic has only scored 12 or more points in two of the last five games, but he has played at least 28 minutes in four of the last five. With Bradley Beal out for the season and Kawhi Leonard out for the foreseeable future, Ty Lue needs Bogdanovic’s firepower in the rotation. Tonight, that firepower should be on full display.
Bogdanovic scores 56% of his points on above-the-break 3s, which is a problem area for the 76ers. Philly is a bottom-10 defense when it comes to defending those. The Sixers also struggle with good mid-range shooters and PnR ball handlers. Bogdanovic can do damage in both areas in a pinch.
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2025-26 Record (All Picks): 72-72 (-5.59 units)
