Player props have become one of the NBA’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value beyond the standard spread or total. Each night, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from points and rebounds to assists and combo lines — using matchup data, recent performance, and betting trends to find edges. Keep reading for the top NBA player prop picks for October 22. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the NBA, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges for Wednesday
Below you’ll find some of the projections that stood out when looking at our OptaAI NBA Player Prop projections. Subscribers have access to hundreds of others on a daily basis!
Kyle Kuzma Over 10.5 Points (-107)
Wizards at Bucks – 8:00 pm ET
The OptaAI projections call for Kuzma to score 16.74 points when the Bucks take on the Wizards on Wednesday. Kuzma averaged 14.8 points per game last season, and he’s going up against his former team. That’s also a Washington team that was fourth in the NBA in pace of play (101.8) and 28th in adjusted defensive rating (118.0) last year.
Walker Kessler Under 11.5 Rebounds (-128)
Clippers at Jazz – 9:00 pm ET
Kessler averaged 12.2 rebounds per game for Utah last season, but the projections have him finishing with only 7.62 boards tonight. That’s an edge of 3.88 to the Under, which is the biggest margin we have in the rebound category. The Jazz are 10-point underdogs against the Clippers in some spots, so maybe a blowout will lead to Kessler playing well below his 30.0 minutes per game from a year ago. But even if that’s not the case, he will be going to work against a behemoth in Ivica Zubac.
Cooper Flagg Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110)
Spurs at Mavericks – 9:30 pm ET
OptaAI has Flagg going for 29.63 combined points, rebounds, and assists in his NBA debut. Flagg will be taking on Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs in the second game of ESPN’s doubleheader, making this something that could be fun to jump on in a must-watch showdown.
Wednesday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find what I’m personally playing on the player prop market for Wednesday. My official plays are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record.
AJ Green Over 7.5 Points (-110)
Wizards at Bucks – 8:00 pm ET
Last season, Green averaged 9.3 points per game in three meetings with the Wizards. The 42.7% three-point shooter should continue to enjoy this matchup. Washington allowed opponents to shoot 40% on corner threes last year, and that’s an area where Green can really hurt teams. Green could also get hot from anywhere else. Dairy Bird was just signed to a four-year, $45 million extension, and he figures to be a huge part of the way Milwaukee wants to play this year. The Bucks are rolling the ball out to Giannis Antetokounmpo and surrounding him with floor-spacing. Well, Green is the definition of a floor-spacer, and he’s one that should hurt a young, unorganized Wizards team that was near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency last season.
Chris Paul Over 4.5 Assists (+101)
Clippers at Jazz – 9:00 pm ET
Paul had 10 assists in Los Angeles’ final preseason game. That probably shouldn’t be expected of him every night, but five feels like a reasonable ask against a Utah team that was last in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating (119.1) last year. The Jazz gave up more assists per game (29.6) than anybody in basketball a season ago, and Paul should be able to pick apart a defense like this. The veteran might not play more than 20 minutes or so, but that should be enough. He was thriving running the show with John Collins and Brook Lopez as his two bigs. With Lopez spacing the floor, Paul and Collins carved up the Kings second unit. I can see things playing out the same way on Wednesday.
Grayson Allen Over 2.5 Made Threes (-133)
Kings at Suns – 10:00 pm ET
Two seasons ago, when Allen was a full-time starter for Phoenix, he knocked down 2.7 triples per game in 33.5 minutes per game. And last year, in the 25 games in which Allen played at least 27 minutes, the 30-year-old hit at least three triples in 20 of those games. Well, Jalen Green is out for the Suns in this one, which means Allen will run with the starters. That should mean he’ll play in the ballpark of 30 minutes, and that should mean a good performance from deep. Allen also made at least three shots from behind the arc in both of his meetings with Sacramento last year.
MORE: In addition to these three NBA player props, I also have three sides/totals for Wednesday!
