We’re nearing the end of the 2024-25 NBA season. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Thursday, April 10th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 10th
NBA Best Bets Today – April 10th
New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 pm ET
The Knicks looked really good against the Celtics the other night, showing that they have what it takes to compete with any team in the Eastern Conference when they’re locked in and playing well. I’d even argue they should have won that game, but they made the brutal mistake of not following with a 3-point lead late in the game. The problem with tonight’s game is that OG Anunoby and Josh Hart are both out. That means New York will be playing without two of its three most important defenders. This isn’t the game for that.
Since the start of March, the Pistons are ninth in the league in points allowed per 100 possessions (111.7), so they should be able to do a decent job of slowing down Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns — especially with New York lacking proven players that can help that trio this evening. Then, on the other end of the floor, Detroit’s mediocre offense will be bailed out by the fact that New York is missing some key parts of its recently-improved defense.
The Knicks are also just 38-88 straight-up as road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points under Tom Thibodeau, and they’re also 54-68 against the spread in that situation. Meanwhile, the Pistons are 18-12-1 ATS in the second half of the season. They’re also 11-6 ATS when coming off a home loss, and they should be fired up after letting a big lead slip away against the Kings last game.
Bet: Pistons -3.5 (-110)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies – 9:30 pm ET
Losing a rookie should never be dooming for a team with legitimate expectations for the postseason, but Jaylen Wells has been a tremendous 3-and-D wing for Memphis all year. Of course, it was very nice to see that Wells didn’t suffer any serious injuries when he was clipped by KJ Simpson when going up for a dunk the other night — in what was one of the most boneheaded plays I’ve ever seen. But Wells did suffer a season-ending broken wrist. The Grizzlies are now missing two key defensive pieces the rest of the year, with Brandon Clarke also out the remainder of the season. Well, considering this team has already been sliding defensively, I’m not sure how they’re going to recover from that. And they play a tough Timberwolves team tonight.
Since March 1st, Minnesota is fifth in the league in Cleaning The Glass’ Efficiency Differential (+9.5) and has been a top-seven team in the league in both points per 100 possessions (121.0) and points allowed per 100 possessions (111.5). This Minnesota team is tenacious on both ends of the floor, so don’t make the mistake of knocking this group too much for the blown lead against Milwaukee the other night. In fact, the Timberwolves should be desperate for a win after letting that game get away, especially with so much room to climb the Western Conference standings.
With all of that in mind, I’m ignoring Memphis’ home-court advantage and playing the stronger team in this one.
Bet: Timberwolves ML (-122 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – April 10th
Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 pm ET
Andrew Nembhard hasn’t been the most consistent scorer in the world, but he’s going to flirt with 30 minutes this evening and has really enjoyed the Cavaliers matchup this season. In two meetings with Cleveland, Nembhard is averaging 14.5 points per game. He also scored at least 10 in both of those contests. Now, it should be noted that Tyrese Haliburton was out for one of those contests. However, that was a game in which Nembhard had only 10 points. When Haliburton played, Nembhard had 19 points. This is just a matchup that really has the potential to be high in scoring, meaning we could see some big performances from non-stars. Well, keep an eye on Nembhard. Indiana runs plenty of offense through him, and he’s capable of taking advantage of some weak matchups.
Bet: Nembhard Over 9.5 Points (-115)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
Clippers To Win Western Conference (17-1) & Clippers To Win NBA Title (50-1 – 0.25 units) – I have been talking about this the last couple of days on my live VSiN show appearances, but Los Angeles has looked the part of an elite team recently. Since March 1st, Los Angeles has the second-best Efficiency Differential (+12.5) in basketball. The Clippers are right behind the Thunder (+13.0) and just ahead of the Celtics (+11.1), and it’s honestly a pretty significant sample size. With Kawhi Leonard looking like Kawhi Leonard, it’s just hard to rule out the possibility of this team doing special things. James Harden has been awesome all year, and the same goes for both Norman Powell and Ivica Zubac. This team is also deep with quality two-way players, and Ty Lue is one of the best X’s and O’s coaches in the league. Obviously, it’d be nice if the Clippers can avoid a second-round meeting with the Thunder, but that doesn’t change the fact that these prices are too good to pass on. Los Angeles can beat Oklahoma City as long as Leonard avoids a big injury.
I also mentioned on A Numbers Game that this is a rare season in which there’s late-season value on the futures market. Well, not only do I like Los Angeles as a flier, but I also like Minnesota to win the West (23-1) and Indiana to win the East (32-1). I already have a piece of both teams, so I’m not adding anything else here. But if you are willing to take some chances, I’d look into both. They have both been extremely good since slow starts to the year. And in the Pacers case, they’re probably going to avoid the Celtics in Round 2. Well, the Cavaliers are the much easier matchup between the top-two seeds, as they’re still relatively unproven when it comes to the postseason.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 363-369-2 (-4.71 units) – If you’re confused about why this got better after a night I lost 2.5 units, that’s because all of my win totals were officially settled last night and I was able to tally those up.
