The 2024-25 NBA season is underway. Make sure you check out the fantastic work of Jonathan Von Tobel, who will be writing NBA deep-dive features for us twice per week this year. And try to listen to A Numbers Game every morning, as Kelley Bydlon often dishes out his favorite NBA picks. But I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Thursday, December 12th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on December 12th
NBA Best Bets Today – December 12th
Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat – 7:30 pm ET
The Raptors are going to be without Scottie Barnes for a while. That’s rough news for a team that was finally starting to get healthy. It’s also tough news for my Toronto season win total. However, I don’t think the Raptors are going to suddenly stop competing. Toronto is tied for second in the NBA in cover rate, as the Raptors are 17-8 against the spread and covering in 68.0% of their games. And while Barnes was certainly a big part of that, the team is 7-4 ATS without him. On top of that, Toronto is 26-21 ATS as a road underdog under head coach Darko Rajokovic. Meanwhile, Miami is just 2-8 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last three seasons. This Heat team isn’t often expected to roll opponents, and it hasn’t proven that it can consistently do so. I don’t see that changing tonight.
While Toronto is missing both Barnes and Immanuel Quickley, the team does have its center duo of Jakob Poeltl and Kelly Olynyk. Poeltl should make for a tough matchup for Bam Adebayo, and Olynyk will be the best player on either bench tonight. The Raptors also happen to have two awesome perimeter defenders in Davion Mitchell and Ochai Agbaji, so they have guys that can try and pour water on a red-hot Tyler Herro. And RJ Barrett has simply been tremendous all year, and he’s capable of putting Toronto on his back on the offensive end. It might not be all that efficient, but he’ll be aggressive and put the ball in the hole. That will allow the Raptors to continue to run their usual offense.
Miami probably will win this game outright. The Heat are the better team and they’re playing at home. But I don’t think Miami is good enough offensively to shoot Toronto off the court. This should be a closer game than expected.
Bet: Raptors +10.5 (-110 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – December 12th
Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 pm ET
The Pelicans are going to spend some more time without Brandon Ingram, who suffered a bad ankle sprain a couple of games ago. Sure, Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III are plenty capable of playing big minutes on the wing. Both players would be starting on most NBA teams. However, those are two off-ball players. On offense, they impact the game as catch-and-shoot players that occasionally attack closeouts. And both are threats in transition. But the Pelicans won’t be looking for much on-ball creation from either of them. That will be up to Dejounte Murray and CJ McCollum. It’s Murray that I’m backing tonight.
Last game, Murray had 18 points, 11 assists and six boards, going Over tonight’s points, rebounds and assists total of 34.5. He also easily cleared the mark the game before, going for 26 points, nine rebounds and five dimes. Now that Murray will be an even bigger part of this offense, he should fill up the stat sheet. And I don’t see tonight’s matchup giving him too many problems, as the Kings aren’t exactly great when it comes to perimeter defense. Murray should get going offensively, and he’s always a threat to chip in on the boards.
Bet: Murray Over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-113)
Parlays/Teasers/Late Added Plays/In-Season Futures
Pistons +11.5 (-105) vs. Celtics – No Jayson Tatum or Sam Hauser for Boston. This has already been a tricky matchup for the Celtics in recent years, so I’m taking the points with the Pistons. They should be able to avoid embarrassment against a shorthanded team.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 108-98 (+7.68 units)
