The 2024-25 NBA season is underway. Make sure you check out the fantastic work of Jonathan Von Tobel, who will be writing NBA deep-dive features for us twice per week this year. And try to listen to A Numbers Game every morning, as Kelley Bydlon often dishes out his favorite NBA picks. But I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Monday, December 16th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on December 16th
NBA Best Bets Today – December 16th
Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 pm ET
The Over is 8-5 in Chicago road games this year, and it’s also 8-5 in Toronto home games. The Bulls also play at the league’s second-fastest pace (104.9), and the team is 28th in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating (115.9). That’s a great combination for Over bettors, as Chicago likes to play fast and score a lot of points. However, the Bulls can’t stop opponents from doing the same — and doing it better. Well, the Raptors aren’t all that different. They’re 11th in the NBA in pace (100.0) and 23rd in adjusted defensive rating (114.6). With that in mind, the style of play here will be an up-and-down game that doesn’t feature a lot of stops.
Chicago has played six games this season with a total of 240 or higher, which is where this total is sitting at most shops. The Over is 4-2 in those games. However, there is a 239.5 out there that doesn’t require a lot of juice and that’s ultimately what I played. I know this matchup might not scream shot-making, but bad defense with an uptempo pace can be just as important as good offense when it comes to totals. So, I’m playing the Over on this and probably won’t watch a second of it.
Bet: Over 239.5 (-109)
Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 pm ET
The Kings are starting to figure some things out. I took the Rockets to beat them in Sacramento on December 3rd, and that writeup included a mini-rant on why this Kings team isn’t anything like the ones we have seen in past years. However, Sacramento won that game and is now 4-1 in its last five games. In that span, the Kings have a net rating of +15.8. Putting Malik Monk in the starting lineup has been a huge factor for Sacramento, as he gives the Kings some much-needed juice. Sacramento has the best offensive rating (124.4) in the NBA over the last five games, and the team is also eighth in the league in defensive rating (108.6) in that span. The team has been much better on both ends of the floor, and now it’s pretty easy to see a scenario in which the group gets over .500 on the year with a win over Denver.
This year’s Nuggets team is just 14th in the league in adjusted defensive rating (112.3), making it hard to believe in the group consistently getting stops against the Kings. Sacramento has a few players that play at a slow pace — like DeMar DeRozan — but the team has a lot of speed at guard. De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk can generate a lot of good offense by just beating a slower Denver team down the floor. Sacramento is also shooting the lights out from 3 lately. This Kings team doesn’t take as many triples as it probably should, but the group is making 39.8% of its 3-point attempts over the last five games. And that’s not crazy considering the lineups it’s playing. Well, it’s very easy to win the math battle against the Nuggets, who take just 30.6 3s per game. That’s the lowest mark in the NBA by a significant margin.
Of course, Nikola Jokic is going to dominate this game inside. He just has a huge size advantage over Domantas Sabonis, and he dominates pretty much every matchup. But Sacramento should feel good about the edge it has everywhere else. Also, the Nuggets are just 82-128 straight-up as road underdogs under Mike Malone, and the Kings are 46-33 as home favorites under Mike Brown. Sacramento is also 7-3 SU when playing three or more days of rest under Brown. This is a smash spot for me.
Bet: Kings ML (-122 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – December 16th
Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 pm ET
I don’t feel great about backing players to knock down four 3s in a single game, but it’s hard to turn away from Tyler Herro’s 3-point makes tonight. The 24-year-old has made a huge leap this season, as he’s averaging 24.2 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game. Herro is doing a lot of things at a much higher level than usual, with his driving being the main difference. However, he’s also just knocking down shots at an absurd clip. This season, Herro is shooting 42.7% from deep on 9.8 attempts per game. That means he’s making 4.2 triples per game. Well, I like him to do what he has been doing all season.
Herro has made at least four 3s in six of his last eight games, and he had a performance against the Pistons in which he made 10 back on November 12th. He also went 3 for 12 from 3 against Detroit on October 28th, and the volume is what’s hard to ignore here. In two meetings with the Pistons, Herro has launched 29 shots from deep. And I don’t see him being gun-shy tonight, as the Pistons struggle to defend the 3-point line — especially against lead guards. This season, Detroit is allowing opponents to shoot 39.0% on non-corner 3s, according to Cleaning The Glass. That’s typically where ball handlers create their best looks off the bounce.
Bet: Herro Over 3.5 Made 3s (-115)
Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 pm ET
The Hornets are just 20th in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating (114.2), and they can have some trouble defending around the basket. That should mean that Guerschon Yabusele will have opportunities to score at the rim tonight, and we already know he’s going to get some looks from deep. The 28-year-old is shooting 38.2% on 3.9 attempts from 3 this season, and he’s a very trustworthy catch-and-shoot option in the Sixers offense.
The only question with Yabusele is whether or not he’ll get his share of minutes, but that’s not a concern this evening. Joel Embiid is out with a facial fracture, and Yabusele had played at least 33 minutes in three consecutive games before the superstar returned from a lengthy absence (knee swelling). In those three games, Yabusele went Over tonight’s total of 16.5 points, rebounds and assists in all of them.
Yabusele is just a good bet to score a little, as he is capable of doing it in a few different ways. However, he’s underrated as both a rebounder and a passer. That said, it feels like a no-brainer to get in the Yabusele business tonight. He had seven points, 12 rebounds and four dimes against the Hornets on December 3rd. He also had 20 points and eight boards against Charlotte on November 10th. He likes this matchup.
Bet: Yabusele Over 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125 – 1.5 units)
Parlays/Teasers/Late Added Plays/In-Season Futures
Jazz +8.5 (-123 – 1.5 units) vs. Clippers
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2024-25 NBA Record: 115-107 (+4.94 units)
