The 2024-25 NBA season is in full swing. Make sure you check out the fantastic work of Jonathan Von Tobel, who will be writing NBA deep-dive features for us this year. And try to listen to A Numbers Game every morning, as Kelley Bydlon often dishes out his favorite NBA picks. But I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Thursday, December 19th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on December 19th
NBA Best Bets Today – December 19th
Atlanta Hawks at San Antonio Spurs – 8:00 pm ET
The Hawks went to Las Vegas for the Emirates NBA Cup semifinals, so there could be a bit of a hangover here. I’m interested in seeing if Atlanta can find the energy it needs to beat a solid Western Conference team. However, the Hawks are just 4-6 straight-up against the West this season. They’re also just 7-7 SU on the road. Meanwhile, the Spurs are 9-7 SU when playing at home. On top of all of that, Atlanta is 17-28 SU when playing as a road underdog under Quin Snyder, and the group is also inexplicably 1-4 SU when playing with three or more days of rest under him.
On top of the rest situations and trends not looking all that great for Atlanta, the team will also be without Onyeka Okongwu. The problem with that is Clint Capela is a little too slow for Victor Wembanyama. So, the Hawks could have used a big that is a little lighter on his feet. Without Okongwu, I’m expecting a big offensive performance from Wembanyama.
I also like that San Antonio has Stephon Castle to throw on Trae Young. The rookie has been a menace at the point of attack this year. He’s going to hound Young as often as he can here. And if Castle can do a decent job on the Hawks All-Star, this should be a relatively straightforward win.
It’s also hard not to like that Atlanta is giving up more made 3s per game (15.7) than anybody in the league this year. San Antonio is shooting just 34.4% from deep this season. Only eight teams are shooting worse this year. But this matchup should give the Spurs some good looks to get that number up for one night.
Bet: Spurs ML (-110 – 1.5 units)
Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 pm ET
Luka Doncic is out for the Mavericks tonight. Kyrie Irving is also questionable for Dallas. With that in mind, I’m going to the Under on the Mavericks team total here. Even if Irving is out there, I don’t see a Luka-less Dallas team looking anything like the team that is fourth in the NBA in adjusted offensive rating (117.0) this season. I’m also not sure the Mavericks will even be able to play to their seventh-fastest pace (101.2) in the league.
Dallas is also going to work against a Los Angeles team that is superb defensively. The Clippers are sixth in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating (110.0), and they’re giving up just 107.8 points per game on the season. On top of that, Los Angeles plays pretty slow offensively, as the team is just 23rd in the NBA in pace (98.4).
The Clippers shouldn’t be in any rush to fly up the floor and get shots up. With Dallas being banged up, Los Angeles needs to play some defense and trust in its half-court execution. James Harden should be able to keep the Clippers in this — and potentially even steal it.
Bet: Mavericks Team Total Under 113.5 (-112)
New York Knicks at Minnesota Timberwolves – 9:30 pm ET
Under Tom Thibodeau, the Knicks are 27-37 SU when facing teams that allow 108.0 or fewer points per game. Well, the Timberwolves have allowed just 105.6 points per game this season. Minnesota is suddenly giving up just 107.4 points per 100 possessions this year, and that’s actually better than last year’s mark. It’s a little crazy to think about, as we all fawned over the Timberwolves defense a year ago. Minnesota has also won six of its last seven games, and Julius Randle’s shooting percentages are up. The former Knick is playing much better alongside Anthony Edwards, and the presence of Mike Conley has been a big factor in that. The Timberwolves are 14-7 when Conley plays, but they’re 0-4 without him. They need him to be out there to organize things and distribute touches.
When looking at this game, it just isn’t hard to imagine a scenario in which Minnesota does a very good job of keeping New York’s remarkable offense down. Over the last few weeks, the Timberwolves have been shutting everybody’s water off. And offensively, Edwards and Randle are going to be trouble for a New York team that has been inconsistent defensively. I also think the Timberwolves are going to get some very good looks from 3. The Knicks are allowing 13.7 made 3s per game. Only nine teams in the league are giving up more. And Minnesota is eighth in the NBA in made 3s per game (14.8).
This is also going to be an emotional game for Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, who will be eager to prove New York made a mistake in trading them. And while it’s pretty clear that’s not the case, it will add some extra emotion and edge to this game. The Minnesota crowd will feed off that and give its team a nice home-court advantage.
Bet: Timberwolves ML (-135 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – December 19th
Utah Jazz at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 pm ET
The Jazz are allowing 15.1 made 3s per game this season. Only the Hawks are giving up more than that. Opponents are also shooting 37.4% from deep against Utah, and only four teams are defending the 3-point line worse. The Jazz are also weakest when it comes to defending above the break, making this a good matchup for opposing lead guards that can shoot the 3. Well, that happens to describe Cade Cunningham. With that in mind, I’m taking Cunningham to knock down three 3s at plus-money odds tonight. He has actually done exactly that in five of his last six games. Cunningham is really shooting the ball well, so I don’t see him being shy about getting shots up.
Bet: Cunningham Over 2.5 Made 3s (+118)
Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards – 7:00 pm ET
Tonight’s meeting between the Hornets and Wizards could very well turn into a shootout. These are two very bad defensive teams, and the Wizards play at the fourth-fastest pace in the NBA. So, I’m expecting this to turn into an up-and-down game. And that’s why I’m turning to Miles Bridges to make his mark as a scorer and rebounder. Bridges averages 16.5 points and 6.7 rebounds per game, so he generally flirts with going Over tonight’s total of 23.5 combined points and rebounds. But tonight’s game should suit him well, as Bridges is a good transition player as an explosive leaper. He’s also a competent catch-and-shoot option from 3. Also, while Bridges just came back from injury, he had 24 points and six boards in 28 minutes on Monday. He’s fully healthy and should thrive tonight.
Bet: Bridges Over 23.5 Points + Rebounds (-120 – 1.5 units)
Parlays/Teasers/Late Added Plays/In-Season Futures
Minnesota Timberwolves To Win Western Conference (14-1 – 0.5 units) – Everything I wrote about Minnesota earlier plays into why I believe this team can contend in the Western Conference. The Timberwolves are once again one of the league’s toughest defensive teams, so they’re going to be extremely dangerous if they can figure out the offense. And that really just boils down to how the team is shooting. Randle and Edwards are both performing well in their ball-dominant roles, but Conley, Naz Reid, Jaden McDaniels and Donte DiVincenzo are all shooting the ball rather poorly. Once they start burying open looks, Minnesota will go to another level when it comes to offensive efficiency.
I also just like the way this Timberwolves team plays a playoff style of basketball. They make things impossible on opponents with their half-court defense, which is as valuable as it gets in the postseason. And Edwards and Randle are two guys that can make tough shots when the game shrinks. That’s why Tim Connelly made the move for Randle. I know a lot of people say that he dumped Karl-Anthony Towns because of the team’s financial situation. Perhaps that is partly true. But he also sees the value in having another good shot creator playing with Edwards. Last year, teams were able to blitz Edwards in the postseason and nobody else was able to generate offense. That won’t be an option with Randle out there. If teams allow Randle to get downhill and play with space — or a 4-on-3 advantage — then he will destroy them.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 119-111 (+7.18 units)
