The 2024-25 NBA season is underway. Make sure you check out the fantastic work of Jonathan Von Tobel, who will be writing NBA deep-dive features for us twice per week this year. And try to listen to A Numbers Game every morning, as Kelley Bydlon often dishes out his favorite NBA picks. But I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Wednesday, December 4th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on December 4th
NBA Best Bets Today – December 4th
Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 pm ET
The Bucks earned a 128-107 win over the Pistons last night. While that game was a blowout, Milwaukee didn’t let up because of the NBA Cup implications. Damian Lillard and Brook Lopez both played at least 32 minutes, and Giannis Antetokounmpo went all out in his 28 minutes. With that in mind, I do think this is a potential fatigue spot for Milwaukee. But at the very least, it’s a bit of a let-down spot. Last night’s game was extremely important to the players, but this one is just another regular-season game. Meanwhile, Atlanta comes in riding a four-game winning streak, and the team had a day off yesterday. The Hawks should be locked in here.
Atlanta is also an interesting matchup for Milwaukee. While there’s no such thing as shutting down Antetokounmpo, it helps to have wings like Jalen Johnson, Zaccharie Risacher and De’Andre Hunter on him. He could go off in this game. He’s a threat to do it every night. But Atlanta at least has players that will make him work, plus Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu to meet him at the rim. The Hawks will also put Dyson Daniels on a red-hot Lillard. Daniels’ size and activity should make things tougher on Lillard.
None of that means that the Hawks will completely stifle the Bucks. However, Atlanta has the ability to come up with enough stops here and there to hold its own in a potential shootout. That’s likely where this game is heading. The Bucks are still a questionable defensive team, so containing Trae Young’s dribble penetration and staying at home on all of the Hawks shooters will be a challenge.
Milwaukee is also just 5-6 against the spread as a home favorite of 6 or less under Doc Rivers. The team is also 4-7 ATS when playing the second leg of a back-to-back under him.
Bet: Hawks +4.5 (-115 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – December 4th
Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 pm ET
Myles Turner has failed to reach 24 combined points and rebounds in each of his last four games, but I’m still playing the Over on his total of 23.5 tonight. The reason for that is that Brooklyn is 30th in the league in rebound rate this season. This team really doesn’t do much on the boards, and the team is also 27th in offensive rebound rate. That said, Turner should be able to clean up misses without having to battle too hard. And on the other end of the floor, Turner should be able to knock down some 3s. Opponents are shooting 37.1% from deep against the Nets this year, and that’s the sixth-worst mark in the league. So, Turner should get some good looks against a scrambling Brooklyn defense, especially with the way Tyrese Haliburton is shooting lately. The Nets will have to play close attention to the All-Star guard, meaning Turner should feast in pick-and-pop situations.
Bet: Turner Over 23.5 Points + Rebounds (-106 – 1.5 units)
Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:30 pm ET
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is averaging 8.6 points per game this season, and he has scored at least nine points in each of his last four games. Well, that’s all I’m asking for in tonight’s meeting with the Sixers. Caldwell-Pope shot the ball poorly to start the year, but he’s 17 for 31 from deep over the last four games. Caldwell-Pope will now be working against a Philadelphia team that isn’t great when it comes to defending shooting guards. There’s a good chance that Caldwell-Pope sees a lot of Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain and Kyle Lowry tonight. All of those players can be guilty of falling asleep off the ball, and Caldwell-Pope can also shoot right over the top of all of them. That said, it feels like a no-brainer to back him to score at least nine again.
Bet: Caldwell-Pope Over 8.5 Points (-120)
Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat – 7:30 pm ET
The Lakers have given up the second-most 3s to opposing power forwards this season, and Haywood Highsmith is oddly the starting four for the Heat. So, I’m taking a shot on Highsmith to knock down at least two 3s this evening. I’m not going to put a lot on it, as Highsmith just isn’t a big part of the Miami offense. But he is a 38.8% 3-point shooter, so he will knock shots down if he gets open looks. And Los Angeles has been giving up a lot of clean looks lately, which is why the +200 is a little too good to pass up. Highsmith has actually hit at least two 3s in two of his last three games. So, it’s not like he hasn’t done this at all recently.
Bet: Highsmith Alt Over 1.5 Made 3s (+200 – 0.5 units)
Parlays/Teasers/Late Added Plays/In-Season Futures
Nothing yet.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 93-84 (+5.34 units)
