The 2024-25 NBA season is underway. Make sure you check out the fantastic work of Jonathan Von Tobel, who will be writing NBA deep-dive features for us twice per week this year. And try to listen to A Numbers Game every morning, as Kelley Bydlon often dishes out his favorite NBA picks. But I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Thursday, December 5th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on December 5th
NBA Best Bets Today – December 5th
Oklahoma City Thunder at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 pm ET
This season, the Thunder have a road net rating of +9.5. That’s a very good number, but it’s slightly off the team’s home mark. Meanwhile, the Raptors aren’t nearly as bad as their record suggests. And in the seven games that Scottie Barnes has played since returning from injury, Toronto is 4-3 and has a net rating of +2.7. This is a very competitive basketball team right now, and I’m interested in seeing what this all looks like when Immanuel Quickley returns from a partial UCL tear. We also still haven’t seen Toronto with Kelly Olynyk and Bruce Brown, who were supposed to be two key pieces off the bench this year. That said, this Raptors team could eventually be quite plucky in the Eastern Conference.
As far as tonight goes, I just like Toronto to keep this close throughout the game. Perhaps Oklahoma City will run away with it late, but this is a huge number to be laying in a very difficult place to play. The Raptors are also 8-2 against the spread when playing at home this season, and they do have some interesting matchups they can turn to in this game.
Davion Mitchell will be giving up a lot of size against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander this evening, but the Raptors guard has been BBall Index’s second-best perimeter isolation defender this year. Toronto also has another top-10 defender in that category with Ochai Agbaji, who could handle the Jalen Williams assignment. And if Gilgeous-Alexander is torching Mitchell, perhaps the Raptors will throw Agbaji on the superstar and let Barnes defend Williams. Either way, I like what Toronto has as far as defensive options go for the main cogs in the Oklahoma City offense.
The only thing I’m really worried about here is that Jakob Poeltl is questionable. The Raptors can really use him to bang with Isaiah Hartenstein in the paint. But overall, I would be pretty surprised if this turns into a complete blowout. Toronto tends to bring it every night.
Bet: Raptors +9.5 (-105)
Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 pm ET
The other night, I went into why I’m down on this year’s Kings. Of course, the on-court results do a better job of explaining it than I can. But the reality is that Sacramento is no longer the elite offensive team it used to be. And the team is not good enough defensively to support anything other than that. That’s why this Kings team is 10-12. Of course, the day I went on that mini-rant about Sacramento, the team ended up turning in an inspired effort and beating a very good Houston squad at the Golden 1 Center. But going on the road and beating Memphis is a whole different challenge. The Grizzlies are looking like a real threat to win the Western Conference — more on that after the player prop below — and they’re 10-3 straight-up and 9-4 ATS at home this year.
I just don’t think the Kings will be able to get their offense going in this one, as the Grizzlies are seventh in the league in adjusted defensive rating. They have some strong answers for Domantas Sabonis around the basket, where Jaren Jackson Jr. will be lurking as a shot blocker. And I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a healthy dose of rookie Jaylen Wells defending De’Aaron Fox tonight. Wells has been rock-solid on both ends of the floor this year, and he’s a big part of the reason this team is thriving. Wells has the size and defensive instincts to make life difficult on Fox.
On the other end of the floor, the Kings could be in serious trouble here. Memphis isn’t the greatest shooting team in the world, but Sacramento is allowing more 3s per game (15.1) than anybody but Atlanta this year. Opponents are also shooting 38.1% from deep against the Kings. If Sacramento is giving up open looks to Memphis’ shooters, this could get ugly. The Kings already have to worry about Ja Morant and Jackson as shot creators in isolation, but the threat of Desmond Bane snapping out of a shooting slump (25.0% from 3 over the last 10 games) is looming. This could be the game he explodes.
Bet: Grizzlies -2.5 (-112 – 1.5 units)
Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 pm ET
It looks like the Suns will be without Kevin Durant for the next three or four games. That’s a tough blow for a Phoenix team that is 10-2 with Durant in the lineup. However, this Suns team has also been good with lineups that include Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. So, Phoenix should be able to find ways to beat below-average teams without Durant, and that’s why I’m laying the points with the Suns tonight.
This Pelicans team should figure things out if they ever get healthy, but they’re nowhere close to that right now. Zion Williamson, Jose Alvarado and Jordan Hawkins are all out, and Brandon Ingram, Herbert Jones and Yves Missi are all questionable for tonight. If any of the three questionable players miss tonight’s game, it’s hard not to love Phoenix’s chances.
The Suns might be missing Durant, but his absence paves the way for more Ryan Dunn minutes. The rookie is one of the best wing defenders in basketball, and he should be able to hold up nicely in a potential Ingram or Trey Murphy matchup. And Royce O’Neale will handle whoever Dunn doesn’t. Also, look for Phoenix to throw Beal on Dejounte Murray tonight. Beal has been known for being a poor defender throughout his career, but he has been tremendous defending the perimeter since late last season. He’s another top-10 isolation defender in BBall Index’s rankings.
As far as the offense goes, it’s hard to worry about Booker and Beal getting going against a Pelicans team that can’t guard anyone. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Grayson Allen gets hot tonight, as there should be more minutes for him to find a rhythm. I also think that Jusuf Nurkic being out will help the Suns in this specific matchup. More Oso Ighodaro could be a good thing without Durant. It improves the Phoenix defense, and it also gives the Suns a very good connective piece on offense. He makes great decisions whenever he has the basketball.
Phoenix is also 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS as a road favorite under Mike Budenholzer, and New Orleans is just 70-86-2 ATS versus teams with winning records under Willie Green.
Bet: Suns -2.5 (-109)
NBA Player Props Today – December 5th
Chicago Bulls at San Antonio Spurs – 8:00 pm ET
There will be no Victor Wembanyama for the Spurs tonight, so somebody will have to step up offensively. Don’t be surprised if it’s Steph Castle. Towards the end of November, Castle was playing some great basketball for San Antonio, and he even had a stretch where he scored 18 or more points in three consecutive games. Well, with the Spurs not having to force-feed Wembanyama in the half-court offense, Castle could look to be aggressive as a scorer and playmaker again. And the matchup is absolutely perfect, as the Bulls are 28th in the league in adjusted defensive rating (116.3) and first in pace of play. I have said it all year long, but Chicago is a dream matchup for opposing guards. That said, Castle should look to take advantage of the green light here. He’ll also chip in a bit as a rebounder, as he’s a great rebounder at the guard position. I’d just be stunned if he doesn’t fill up the stat sheet tonight. This should be a high-scoring game, and he’s going to get 33 to 35 minutes.
Bet: Castle Over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-113 – 1.5 units)
Parlays/Teasers/Late Added Plays/In-Season Futures
Grizzlies & Rockets To Win Western Conference (20-1 – 0.5 units each): I mentioned this on VSiN PrimeTime on Wednesday, but I’m taking shots on Memphis and Houston to win the Western Conference. Like everybody else on the planet, I view Oklahoma City as the top team in the conference. However, Chet Holmgren’s health is definitely a little concerning. I know he avoided a foot injury this time, but we’re now looking at a three-year span in which the young star has missed a lot of games. Will he be healthy when the playoffs roll around? And if he is, will Oklahoma City have the time it needs to build chemistry? We also haven’t yet seen a deep run from the Thunder. Last year’s playoff experience was a positive for the group, but it’s hard to break through in this league — especially in a loaded conference. With all of that in mind, why not take some fliers?
I like the Grizzlies more than I like the Rockets, but both are worth playing for different reasons. For Memphis, you’re talking about a team that was once looked at the same way as Oklahoma City. The Grizzlies were a young team that crashed the party in the Western Conference and looked to have a championship future. Sure, things got off the rails a bit because of injuries and Morant suspensions, but the future is now. Memphis is 14-8 and is a top-10 team when it comes to adjusted defensive rating. The Grizzlies have Morant and Jackson playing at high levels, and Bane is going to come around as a shooter. Memphis also happens to have one of the deepest rosters in the league, as the team has eight or nine guys that can be relied on to contribute in the postseason. Not a lot of teams can say the same. I simply love an elite defensive team that also has an electric half-court playmaker, some good floor spacers and very few egos. And Taylor Jenkins can really coach.
As far as Houston goes, the team is third in the league in adjusted defensive rating right now. The Rockets are also 15-7 on the year, and we know they’re not satisfied with that. This is a front office that is known for being super aggressive, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they make a big deal at the deadline. Houston has been loosely linked to Jimmy Butler, and that’s a trade that could make a lot of sense for all parties. The Rockets can probably get him without giving up Tari Eason or Amen Thompson, and that would potentially give Houston the most tenacious defensive team in league history. Ime Udoka is also a brilliant head coach himself. There’s just a lot to like about the Rockets right now, and they should be a tough out in the postseason. But part of the reason this is worth taking a shot on is that Houston is a prime candidate for a consolidation deal that brings in a high-level starter.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 96-86 (+6.55 units)
