The 2024-25 NBA season is in full swing. I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Tuesday, February 4th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on February 4th
NBA Best Bets Today – February 4th
Dallas Mavericks at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 pm ET
I’m not reading much into the Mavericks losing by 43 against the Cavaliers the other day. That game was played directly after news of the Luka Doncic trade broke. Dallas also played without Kyrie Irving, PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford. Well, those three will be available against the 76ers tonight, and it also looks like Max Christie will make his Mavericks debut. The problem is that Philadelphia is playing some good basketball lately. While the Mavericks have lost seven of their last 11 games, the Sixers have won four of their last six. Philadelphia has also covered in six consecutive contests, led by stellar play from superstar Tyrese Maxey and solid play from the role players. Also, it looks like help is on the way for Maxey, as Joel Embiid, Caleb Martin, KJ Martin and Andre Drummond are all listed as questionable tonight. That’s an improvement for all four players, and Maxey would love to have a few of them back.
Regardless of who Maxey has out there, it is hard not to like the Sixers a little tonight. The Mavericks are just 4-8 straight-up in games with lines of +3 to -3 this season, and they’re also 5-7 SU as road underdogs of 6 or less points. On top of that, they’re 1-3 SU when playing their third road game in five days, and this team is probably dying to get home after an emotional week.
Also, for as bad as things have been for Philadelphia this season, the team is 11-8 SU as a favorite this year. The team is winning games when expected to do so, and that should only be turned up a notch as players return to the lineup.
It’s also just hard not to like Maxey to completely torch the Mavericks here. Christie is going to be the best guard defender on this Dallas team soon, but I doubt Jason Kidd will get him 30 or more minutes right away. And with Dereck Lively II out indefinitely, none of the Sixers will be met by a great rim protector when they go to the basket.
Bet: Sixers ML (-130)
UPDATE: PJ Washington has since been ruled out.
New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 pm ET
The Knicks had to fight to come back and beat the Rockets last night. Houston led by as many as 12 in the game, but New York outscored the team by 17 in the fourth quarter. The problem is that it’s likely OG Anunoby won’t be able to go for the Knicks tonight. And Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart and Karl-Anthony Towns all played at least 37 minutes last night. That said, fatigue should be a real factor when New York faces Toronto this evening. And this isn’t the same Raptors team the Knicks played earlier in the season.
Toronto is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games, and the team has a net rating of +6.3 in that span. That’s actually higher than New York’s net rating over the last 10 games. This is really looking like the Raptors team I liked before the season, which is why it’s going to hurt if they don’t go Over 29.5 wins. But Scottie Barnes is playing like a borderline All-Star, as he has for most of the time he has been healthy this year. And his supporting cast is looking much better than it did early in the season, as guys are healthier and the young players look more comfortable than ever.
The interesting thing about this matchup is that Toronto is second in the NBA in points allowed per 100 possessions (106.6) over the last 10 games, according to Cleaning The Glass. This has been looking like an elite defensive team, so the Raptors are going to feel good about slowing down a Knicks team that could have dead legs. And we all know New York can really struggle to guard, so perhaps Toronto’s offense will get going a bit.
The Raptors have also been covering machines at home this year, as they’re 17-8 ATS at home and 16-5 ATS as home underdogs. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 0-3 ATS on the second night of back-to-backs this season. So, while it stings that RJ Barrett is out with a concussion tonight, there’s a lot that suggests Toronto can get this done.
Bet: Raptors +5.5 (-114 – 1.5 units) & Raptors ML (+176 – 0.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – February 4th
Houston Rockets at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 pm ET
While the Nets are one of the least talented teams in the NBA, somebody has to put up numbers for Brooklyn. Well, one of the more reliable stat-sheet stuffers has been Keon Johnson lately. Over the last five games, Johnson is averaging 16.6 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game. That’s good for a combined total of 25.0 points, rebounds and assists per game. Also, the most recent of those five games was a performance against the Rockets in which Johnson had 13 points, nine boards and five dimes. Well, I’m not sure Johnson will repeat that outing exactly, but I don’t see any reason he can’t make some things happen here. Like most players, Johnson is a more dangerous shooter at home, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the offense is at least there. But Johnson is scrappy for a guard, so I also think he’ll do a little dirty work.
Bet: Johnson Over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-113)
New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 pm ET
In addition to taking the Raptors, I also like Jakob Poeltl to have a good game. So, I went over to our VSiN NBA prop bet analyzer to learn that he has gone Over his combined points, rebounds and assists total in 23 of the 44 games he has played this year. Poeltl also happened to average 13.2 points, 9.1 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game in January, and that’s good for an average of 25.5 combined points, rebounds and assists per game. He’s just playing some good all-around basketball for a Raptors team that is suddenly winning games regularly. Also, for as good as Towns is, the Knicks big man can be out-hustled on any given night. So, I like Poeltl to do a really good job on the glass tonight, but I also feel pretty good about him doing some damage around the basket. He’s also a very good playmaking hub, so the Raptors will definitely get him the rock in the mid-post and hope to capitalize on his ability to find cutters. Poeltl also happened to have 10 points, 12 rebounds and four assists the last time Toronto hosted New York.
Bet: Poeltl Over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
PARLAY: Celtics Alt Spread +7.5 vs. Cavaliers & Clippers ML vs. Lakers (-125) – I wanted a little something on tonight’s TNT doubleheader, so I’m getting a little creative with a play that loops together both games. In the first one, I’m taking Boston to cover an alternate spread of +7.5. I have been pretty firm all year in stating that the Celtics are still a much better team than the Cavaliers, and I’d be surprised if we don’t see a strong effort from Boston tonight. The way they played in the fourth quarter of their win over the Sixers last game was the closest they’ve looked to last year’s championship form. They smothered Philadelphia on the defensive end, and they couldn’t miss offensively. When the Celtics are hitting shots the way we know they can, it’s hard to see how the Cavaliers can keep up with that. And when Boston is at its very best, the team has the ability to really exploit the two-big Cleveland lineup. And if the Celtics show up with some playoff-like intensity, their backcourt is capable of terrorizing the two star Cavaliers guards. I even prefer Boston’s overall rotation to Cleveland’s. That said, I like Boston to potentially win this game, but I took an extra couple of points because I do respect Cleveland’s home-court advantage. And the Cavaliers have proven that they take the regular season more seriously.
As for the second game, the Lakers won’t have Doncic for another couple of days. And this is a team I’m very worried about defensively, so the group needs to be exceptional offensively to make up for that. Well, the Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the league, so I like them to shut the Lakers down completely. And they’re just good enough offensively to pick apart a Lakers team that is low on impact defenders.
PARLAY: Bulls Alt Spread +10.5 vs. Heat & Pacers ML vs. Blazers (-104 – 1.5 units) – Another parlay I’m taking tonight is the Bulls to cover an alternate spread of +10.5 and the Pacers to win outright in Portland. Chicago just shipped off Zach LaVine, but there’s still some talent in place. And we have seen throughout the Billy Donovan era that there’s no quit in the Bulls, and they are always going to play hard. And playing hard should go a long way in keeping things respectable against a Heat team that is merely above average.
With the other game, I’m just shorting Portland a bit. It’s nice to see the Blazers playing some solid basketball, as they need a stable environment to develop some of their young franchise cornerstones. But the two wins Portland just had over Phoenix were simply matchup-based. The Suns struggle with quick, athletic teams with size. The Blazers have that. But Indiana should be able to light Portland up with its elite offense, and the team is solid enough defensively to slow down a Blazers team that is just 25th in the NBA in adjusted offensive rating (110.5). I’d normally be worried about Indiana being on the second night of a road back-to-back, especially with last night’s win in Utah being too close for comfort. But this is the second night of a back-to-back for Portland as well. So, I’ll trust in the better team getting through with a win.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 225-216-2 (+8.42 units)
