I only have a few picks for the NBA slate on Thursday, February 5, which I’m just fine with considering the uncertainty tomorrow’s trade deadline brings. Normally I break things down with two separate articles, but it doesn’t feel necessary today. So, instead of splitting sides/totals and player props into two pieces, I’m bringing everything under one roof — a streamlined look at my favorite bets for the day’s slate. Keep reading for my NBA picks and predictions for Thursday.
RELATED: Check out the Pro Picks page for more selections from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!
NBA Best Bets Today (Sides/Totals)
Hornets +4 (-110) & Hornets ML (+138 – 0.5 units) vs. Rockets
Hornets at Rockets – 8:00 pm ET
The Hornets are 9-3 with a net rating of +9.0 over the last 12 games. That sample size leaves out a 55-point win over the Jazz, as that performance skews the numbers too much. Still, Charlotte has been one of the best teams in the NBA recently, and the team is No. 1 in raw offensive rating (119.1) in this recent stretch. The Hornets are also on a seven-game winning streak, and they’re coming off two days off. That extra rest could be big against a Rockets team that is playing for the second straight night — and third game in four nights.
Charlotte’s offense could also pose some problems for Houston. The Rockets just lost by 21 against the Celtics last night, and Charlotte’s system isn’t all that different from Boston’s. That’s because Charles Lee, the current Hornets head coach, used to be an assistant for the Celtics. That said, look for Charlotte’s 3-happy offense to potentially be difficult for Houston to keep up with.
The Hornets are also 7-3 ATS as road underdogs of 6 or fewer this year. Meanwhile, the Rockets are 14-23 straight-up and 16-21 against the spread when playing back-to-back days under Ime Udoka.
Mavericks +7.5 (-110) vs. Spurs
Spurs at Mavericks – 8:30 pm ET
The Spurs beat up on the Thunder reserves last night, facing an Oklahoma City team that was missing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Lu Dort, Ajay Mitchell, and Isaiah Hartenstein. Still, San Antonio’s key rotation pieces did play a good chunk of minutes, with Victor Wembanyama actually playing 28 and De’Aaron Fox playing 33. That said, while last night’s game might not seem like it was all that taxing, you can’t rule out the possibility of the Spurs being a little fatigued.
The Mavericks have also been a go-to play when facing strong competition this year. They’re 9-3 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. They’re also 7-3 ATS at home when taking on teams that outscore opponents by 3.0 or more points per game, and they’re 9-6 ATS when playing at home against teams with winning records.
Dallas also made a big move to trade Anthony Davis yesterday, but the deal didn’t send out any current rotation pieces. With that in mind, Cooper Flagg will have his usual supporting cast in this one. He’s been on a tear for the Mavericks lately, and he’s getting just enough help to keep this team competitive. I don’t think that changes here.
I know this play lost against the Celtics the other night, but Luka Garza had 16 points on 6 for 8 shooting from the floor and 4 for 4 shooting from 3. That felt like it ended up burying the play, and it was a little fluky.
NBA Player Props Today
Anthony Black Over 15.5 Points (-117 – 1.5 units) & Alt Points 20+ (+220 – 0.5 units) vs. Nets
Nets at Magic – 7:00 pm ET
Franz Wagner is out for the Magic tonight, so Black should be in for a strong performance. He’s averaging 18.7 points per game when Wagner doesn’t play, and I’m not overreacting to recent letdowns. Black is averaging only 10.5 points per game over the last two contests, but he faced the Spurs and Thunder. Going up against a miserable Nets defense should bring out the best in him. Brooklyn is 29th in the NBA in raw defensive rating (122.1) over the last 15 games. The Nets are also a bottom-five defense when it comes to guarding at the rim, defending spot-ups, and getting back in transition. They’re also weak defending inside 10 feet, and they’re pretty bad guarding in isolation. Black, with his athleticism and improving jumper, should take advantage of all of that. I’m playing him to score at least 16 points a little bigger than I normally play my props, and I’m also sprinkling him to have at least 20.
Onyeka Okongwu Over 16.5 Points (-110) vs. Jazz
Jazz at Hawks – 7:30 pm ET
There’s no guarantee Okongwu will play tonight, as he’s dealing with facial fractures. However, if he goes, I like him to have at least 17 points. With Atlanta having traded Kristaps Porzingis to Golden State, Okongwu is going to play big minutes every single night. Well, in a meeting with Utah, that should result in some numbers. The Jazz are the worst team in the league when it comes to defending catch-and-shoot jumpers, and Okongwu has turned into a dangerous stretch big this year. Utah is also weak defending inside 10 feet, where Okongwu has great touch. On top of that, the Jazz are lousy guarding pick-and-roll rollers. They also struggle in transition, plus they’re lazy on the defensive glass. Okongwu should do some good work as a play finisher and putback guy.
Additional Plays (Late Adds, Parlays, Teasers, Futures)
Nothing yet.
2025-26 NBA Record: 320-306 (+2.22 units)
