The NBA slate for Thursday, January 1 only features five games. Normally I’d break down a slate like this with two separate articles, but I only have two plays for this evening. So, instead of splitting sides/totals and player props into two pieces, I’m bringing everything under one roof — a streamlined look at my favorite bets for the day’s slate. Keep reading for my NBA picks and predictions for Thursday.
RELATED: Check out the Pro Picks page for more selections from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!
NBA Best Bets Today (Sides/Totals)
Rockets-Nets Under 222.5 (-110)
Rockets at Nets – 6:00 pm ET
I put a play in on the Under on Wednesday night, so hopefully you caught it on the Pro Picks page. This is a meeting between two very good defensive teams, as Brooklyn is No. 2 in the NBA in defensive rating (109.5) over the last 15 games. Houston is also No. 6 in adjusted defensive rating (112.4) over the course of the season. On top of that, these teams both play extremely slow. The Nets are 27th in the NBA in pace (97.7), while the Rockets are 28th (97.2).
This just has the potential to be very ugly, so going Under felt like a no-brainer. As of now, the number is 219.5. I’d still consider the Under at that number, but I would rather you wait and hope it gets to 220. The Under is 14-5-1 when the Nets play at home in games with totals between 220 and 229.5 under Jordi Fernandez, and that was one of the trends that factored into my play.
NBA Player Props Today
Andrew Wiggins Over 14.5 Points (-118) vs. Pistons
Heat at Pistons – 7:00 pm ET
Wiggins is averaging 21.7 points per game over the last three contests, and I’m not sure I see him slowing down in a big way. Tyler Herro is still out for Miami, meaning the Heat still need other guys to step up offensively. Well, Wiggins is one of the ones that is capable of doing so, and I like this matchup for him. Wiggins actually had 31 points in a game against Detroit on November 29, and this Pistons team can occasionally struggle with big, athletic wings that can create offense. Wiggins has also scored at least 15 points in eight of his 13 road games, so he isn’t going to be uncomfortable playing outside of Miami.
Naji Marshall Over 12.5 Points (-104) vs. 76ers
76ers at Mavericks – 8:30 pm ET
Marshall is averaging 16.1 points per game over the last 12 games, and he has had at least 13 points in 11 of the last 12. Marshall is just in a nice groove with this Mavericks team, taking advantage of all of the absences in the Dallas rotation. Well, Marshall will now go to work against a 76ers team that he scored 22 against on December 20, and there’s no reason he can’t do it again. Philadelphia is weak defending at the rim, and the team also struggles in transition. Those are two places Marshall can really burn opponents. He’s also a threat to knock down a triple or two, which would put a big dent in this number.
Nique Clifford Over 7.5 Points (-112) vs. Celtics
Celtics at Kings – 10:00 pm ET
Clifford has played 29.0 minutes per game over the last two contests. The Kings seem to finally realize that they should be playing him more — at least until Zach LaVine returns. Clifford has also scored at least eight points in six of the last seven games, and he has had double digits in points in four of the last six. Well, the Celtics are one of the worst teams in the NBA when it comes to defending above-the-break 3s, and Clifford can hurt Boston from there. He’s also extremely explosive in the open court, making him a threat to score in transition. So, this is a game in which the rookie should find some success. Also, if this ends up turning into a Celtics blowout, Clifford should still play a bunch. That’s always a nice thing when talking about a Sacramento team that is occasionally out of games within 30 minutes.
2025-26 NBA Record: 227-206 (+17.08 units)
