I only have a few picks for the NBA slate on Wednesday, February 4, which I’m just fine with considering the uncertainty tomorrow’s trade deadline brings. Normally I break things down with two separate articles, but it doesn’t feel necessary today. So, instead of splitting sides/totals and player props into two pieces, I’m bringing everything under one roof — a streamlined look at my favorite bets for the day’s slate. Keep reading for my NBA picks and predictions for Wednesday.
RELATED: Check out the Pro Picks page for more selections from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!
NBA Best Bets Today (Sides/Totals)
Nuggets +7 (-110) vs. Knicks
Nuggets at Knicks – 7:00 pm ET
The Knicks are scorching hot right now. New York has won seven games in a row. The team is also 7-0 against the spread over the course of the winning streak, and the team has won six of the games by double digits. With how well the Knicks are playing, I can’t blame anyone for laying the points with New York. However, I personally feel this spread is a little disrespectful to Denver.
The Nuggets have lost back-to-back games, and last night’s loss to the Pistons wasn’t all that impressive. There’s also some real uncertainty with Denver’s injury report tonight, with many under the impression that this could be a rest game for Nikola Jokic. But I haven’t actually seen anything definitive about Jokic skipping back-to-backs. That said, I’m grabbing the points with Denver and hoping for the best.
I do anticipate this being a game in which the Nuggets will sit some players, but I’ll feel good about this as long as Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Peyton Watson are out there. That trio is good enough offensively to pick apart a mediocre Knicks defense. Also, while Denver didn’t look great last night, the team did end up covering. The team also looked a lot more like the prime Nuggets in the second half.
It’s just hard to overlook the fact that Denver is 10-3-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points under David Adelman. The team is also 7-3 both straight-up and ATS with him on the sidelines when playing a back-to-back — and 4-0 both SU and ATS when playing two road games on back-to-backs. Adelman does a good job of keeping his team focused. The Nuggets are also 24-13-1 ATS versus winning teams under Adelman.
NBA Player Props Today
Ryan Rollins Over 26.5 Points + Assists (-125) vs. Pelicans
Pelicans at Bucks – 8:00 pm ET
I wrote yesterday that I’m going to continue playing Rollins’ props as long as they don’t increase significantly. Well, the number tonight is actually a little lower than it was last night. With that in mind, I’m going right back to it. Rollins had 21 points and 10 assists in last night’s win over the Bulls, marking the third time in the last four games that he has gone Over his combined points and assists total. The Bucks do get Kevin Porter Jr. back tonight, and that has the potential to cut into Rollins’ production. The situation I have been enjoying with Rollins involves him playing without both Porter and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Well, I’d imagine Porter will be on a minutes restriction tonight, while Antetokounmpo remains out — and could be out of Milwaukee by tomorrow afternoon. That said, I still think Rollins will have a high usage rate tonight, and he’s going up against a Pelicans team that is miserable at defending both above-the-break 3s and shots at the rim. Rollins scores 68% of his points in those two areas, so he should be fine as a scorer. I also expect him to do some dishing.
Sam Merrill Over 11.5 Points (-105) vs. Clippers
Cavaliers at Clippers – 10:30 pm ET
Tonight’s meeting between the Cavaliers and Clippers will be rather awkward, as these teams just swapped Darius Garland and James Harden. However, the show must go on. Well, one thing I like in this matchup tonight is Merrill to score at least 12 points. The sharpshooter just had 22 points in a win over Portland, and he obviously won’t have to deal with Garland being out there to take minutes in the backcourt. Merrill is also going up against a Los Angeles defense that is 26th in the NBA guarding above-the-break 3s, which account for 69% of his scoring.
Additional Plays (Late Adds, Parlays, Teasers, Futures)
PARLAY: Rockets ML vs. Celtics & Spurs Alt +7.5 vs. Thunder (+115)
2025-26 NBA Record: 317-305 (+0.77 units)
