The 2024-25 NBA season is in full swing. I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Wednesday, January 29th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on January 29th

 

NBA Best Bets Today – January 29th

Denver Nuggets at New York Knicks – 7:30 pm ET

Under Tom Thibodeau, the Knicks are a ridiculous 74-46-1 against the spread in games with lines of +3 to -3. They’re also 42-23-1 ATS at home in that situation. This New York team just loves a big game at Madison Square Garden, and I find it interesting they’re only laying 2.5 in this one. This season, the Nuggets have a road net rating of just +3.7 while the Knicks have a home net rating of +9.4. So, while traditional power ratings and season-long net ratings might not have a big gap between these two, I feel there should be a little more distance with New York at home.

This matchup is also pretty good for the Knicks. While Nikola Jokic is going to put up insane numbers for Denver, there’s a pretty good chance he struggles to defend Karl-Anthony Towns. In fact, the last time these teams played, Towns went for 30 points, 15 rebounds and four assists in 34 minutes of action. The Knicks also beat the Nuggets by 27 points at Ball Arena in that one. Outside of the center spot, New York just has positional advantages everywhere. There won’t be a guard on the court that is nearly as good as Jalen Brunson, and the Knicks are much better on the wing.

New York can also shoot the 3-ball as well as any team in the league, so the Knicks can run the Nuggets off the court if they’re hitting shots at a decent clip. Denver still hasn’t fully embraced the modern NBA style. That’s a big part of the reason the Knicks blew the Nuggets out in their first meeting, and I’m not sure what’s changing in New York.

Bet: Knicks -2.5 (-110 – 1.5 units)

Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 pm ET

The injury report isn’t looking good for Dallas these days, as Luka Doncic and Dereck Lively II are both out indefinitely. The Mavericks also have Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell and Dante Exum joining them as inactive, and Naji Marshall isn’t a guarantee to play. Meanwhile, the Pelicans don’t have Brandon Ingram or Herb Jones, but we’re going to see Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray, CJ McCollum and Trey Murphy III all out there tonight. This New Orleans team is starting to get healthy, and Williamson has scored a total of 59 points over his last two games. It’s just starting to feel like the Pelicans are bound to rip off some wins, especially at home. And this is a game in which they will have a legitimate advantage in the talent department.

Dallas is also just 11-12 straight-up when playing on the road this season, so this is where the Mavericks are vulnerable. And under Willie Green, the Pelicans are 9-7 SU when coming off an upset loss as a road favorite, so they should be able to bounce back from their miserable loss in Toronto the other night.

The only thing to worry about here is the potential of Kyrie Irving stealing the game late, but it’s not like the Pelicans don’t have their own reliable crunch-time options.

Bet: Pelicans ML (+102 – 2 units)

NBA Player Props Today – January 29th

Detroit Pistons at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 pm ET

Tobias Harris has been absolutely terrible lately, as he has scored a total of 17 points over his last four games. However, Harris does have seven games in January with at least two 3s, and you never know when a guy is going to come busting out of a slump. Harris has had some success against the Pacers this season, including a game in which he had 16 points and hit two 3s against them on November 29th. Realistically, it’s hard to know what you’re getting with Harris at this stage in his career. His confidence comes and goes. But the Pacers are going to dare him to shoot, so I like these odds. He just needs to be decisive.

Bet: Harris Over 1.5 Made 3s (+195 – 0.5 units)

Los Angeles Clippers at San Antonio Spurs – 8:00 pm ET

The VSiN NBA prop bet analyzer shows that Ivica Zubac has gone Over a 28.5 total for combined points, rebounds and assists in 28 of the 44 games he has played this season. One of those 28 games was a meeting with the Spurs on November 4th, when Zubac had 17 points, 13 rebounds and four assists. In some ways this matchup isn’t a good one for Zubac, as he has to cover Victor Wembanyama. And if Zubac doesn’t have the energy to defend a little on the perimeter, Ty Lue might have to try somebody else at the center spot. But Wembanyama also has to deal with the sheer force that Zubac plays with around the basket. The 27-year-old should be able to finish through Wembanyama a couple of times, even if he also gets blocked quite a bit. And Zubac should do a lot of damage on the glass, as he is averaging 20.4 rebound chances per game this season. Only four players in the NBA top him in that category. So, I’m expecting a big game from Zubac when it comes to points and rebounds, and he should be able to find some assists.

Bet: Zubac Over 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (+100)

Additional Plays

This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.

PARLAY: Kings ML vs. 76ers & Suns Alt Spread +7.5 vs. Timberwolves (-134 – 1.5 units) – I’m a little nervous about the De’Aaron Fox situation leading to some bad vibes on the Sacramento side, but the Kings are stronger than the Sixers when it comes to both adjusted offensive and defensive rating. Philadelphia is also coming off a big primetime win over Los Angeles last night, and the Sixers will likely be somewhat fatigued here. That said, even if it’s a little harder than it should be, I’m using the Kings to get a better price for the Suns against the Timberwolves. Of course, Kevin Durant is questionable for Phoenix tonight, so nothing about this will be easy. But the Suns have quietly gone 8-2 in their last 10 games, and their most recent performance against the Clippers was one of the better ones of the season. Phoenix has looked much sharper on both ends of the floor, and Nick Richards has been a nice addition at center. Meanwhile, Minnesota hasn’t looked all that good recently. So, I like the Suns to keep this thing close at the Footprint Center.

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2024-25 NBA Record: 211-201-2 (+10.29 units)