We’re more than halfway into the 2024-25 NBA season. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Sunday, March 2nd. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 2nd
NBA Best Bets Today – March 2nd
New York Knicks at Miami Heat – 6:00 pm ET
It feels like nobody believes in this Miami team right now, which could have something to do with the way Jimmy Butler has played since arriving in Golden State. But Davion Mitchell and Andrew Wiggins have both looked great in Heat uniforms, and this team enters this game off wins over the Hawks and Pacers. That second one was especially impressive, as Indiana has been one of the best teams in the league since December. Overall, it’s just hard not to like what this Heat team can do on both ends of the floor. In Mitchell, the team now has one of the better point-of-attack defenders in basketball. And Wiggins is another plus-level wing defender, adding to a starting lineup that already has the defensive versatility of Bam Adebayo and rim-protection ability of Kel’El Ware. Both new acquisitions are competent offensively, too. Adding that to the firepower of Tyler Herro makes this team dangerous. In fact, you’ll see below that one of my added plays for today is a future on Miami to win the Southeast Division at +120 odds.
As far as this matchup goes, it’s hard not to like what this Miami team can do defensively against New York. The Heat will stick Mitchell on Jalen Brunson, which should go somewhat well if the former Raptors guard can avoid foul trouble. And Miami has Adebayo and Ware to throw at Karl-Anthony Towns. I just wouldn’t be surprised if the Heat drag the Knicks into the mud here, and I like that Miami’s offense will then be attacking a shaky New York defense.
It’s also just hard not to like the coaching matchup in this one, as Erik Spoelstra should have his team more prepared than Tom Thibodeau. Since the start of last season, the Knicks are just 6-7-1 against the spread as road favorites of 6.5 to 12 points. Meanwhile, the Heat are 17-11 ATS when revenging a home loss against an opponent in that span. And not only do I love Miami to cover tonight, but I also think the team has a shot at winning outright. It’s a bummer that Wiggins is doubtful, as he could have provided a lot in a matchup with Mikal Bridges. But his absence shouldn’t be dooming.
Bet: Heat +7.5 (-118 – 1.5 units) & Heat ML (+220 – 0.5 units)
Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers – 9:30 pm ET
I liked the Clippers to beat the Lakers the other night, but Norman Powell ended up being ruled out after looking like he was going to give it a go. And while one player shouldn’t make that big of a difference, this is undoubtedly a Clippers team that needs all the firepower it can get. Well, Powell is listed as probable for tonight’s game, which is an upgrade on his questionable status from last game. He should be out there this evening, and this will be a Clippers team that will be out for revenge. And for as good as the Lakers have been all year, I do think the Clippers are a bit better than they are.
This Clippers group has the second-best adjusted defensive rating (109.1) in the league, and the offense should look a heck of a lot better with Powell joining James Harden and Kawhi Leonard. Meanwhile, the Lakers have played great defensively since acquiring Luka Doncic. According to Cleaning The Glass, the Lakers’ 105.8 points allowed per 100 possessions is the second-best mark in the league. But I have a very hard time believing in them keeping it up. There are too many non-defenders in most of their five-man units. Coaches will eventually catch on and find a way to beat the modified zone JJ Redick is running. Don’t be surprised if that starts with Ty Lue tonight. He’s one of the best X’s-and-O’s tacticians in the league.
Bet: Clippers ML (-139)
NBA Player Props Today – March 2nd
Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers – 5:00 pm ET
In the five games the Bulls have played since the All-Star break, Josh Giddey is averaging 23.2 points, 11.2 rebounds and 8.8 assists per game. He has been going crazy with the most significant on-ball role he has had since being acquired by Chicago, and I don’t see any reason that will change tonight. While Indiana is a tremendous basketball team, the Pacers are just 20th in the league in adjusted defensive rating (114.3) and they’re also sixth in pace of play (100.8). They will very much welcome an up-and-down affair, as they know they’re likely to win out with their collection of offensive playmakers and shot-makers. But if this does turn into a track meet, Giddey is going to put up some big numbers.
Bet: Giddey Over 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-112)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
PARLAY: Celtics ML vs. Nuggets & Suns Alt +7.5 vs. Timberwolves (+105 – 1.5 units)
FUTURE: Heat To Win Southeast Division (+120 – 3 units) – I’m putting a big play in on the Heat to win their division. Miami is actually 0.5 games up on Orlando right now, and the team also has a two-game lead on third-place Atlanta. The Heat also happen to have the fourth-easiest remaining strength of schedule in the league, according to Positive Residual. They also have more positive rest spots remaining than both the Hawks and the Magic. When you combine the scheduling with the fact that Miami is arguably the best two-way team amongst the three, along with the best-coached group, I just don’t see any reason not to take this at plus-money odds. I know the Heat gave up the biggest name in the Butler deal, but he was giving Miami nothing while suspended and working the espresso machines at BIGFACE coffee. This team has accomplished everything it has accomplished this season without him, and the Heat now have some legitimate contributors in Mitchell and Wiggins.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 273-274-2 (+1.35 units)
