The start of the 2024-25 NBA season is here. On Tuesday, October 22nd, the Boston Celtics will begin their title defense by hosting the New York Knicks in the first game of a TNT doubleheader. The second game will feature JJ Redick’s true coaching debut, as LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers host Anthony Edwards’ Minnesota Timberwolves.
If you haven’t already, download the 2024-25 VSiN NBA Betting Guide. We previewed all 30 teams, gave out some of our favorite season-long futures and also went through some general NBA betting strategies. It should be a great read for anybody that loves the NBA — or just enjoys betting on it.
However, a lot has already happened since we released the guide. With so many things changing in the offseason, this was actually an eventful preseason. I soaked in as much of the action as possible. Also, when I wasn’t able to watch games, I deeply looked into what I missed. And the reality is that a lot of what I saw is actionable heading into the season. So, keep reading for some of my biggest preseason takeaways.
Ignore the 4-1 preseason record…the Los Angeles Clippers are a mess
After a couple of months of radio silence, it was revealed that Kawhi Leonard is out indefinitely as he deals with knee inflammation. That’s par for the course for Los Angeles, which has always kept the truth of Leonard’s injury status under very close wraps. But his on-court presence is more important than ever with Paul George having signed with Philadelphia.
James Harden showed up to training camp in shape, and he seems eager to prove that he’s still one of the league’s best offensive engines. But the Clippers went from having one of the best collections of wings in the league to having some real question marks on the perimeter.
This team isn’t completely void of talent, and Ty Lue is one of the best coaches in the league, but it’s way more likely that the Clippers will sink than swim until Leonard is back on the floor — and that’s assuming the six-time All-Star and two-time Finals MVP is close to 100% health. The Under on Los Angeles’ 35.5-win total is suddenly looking rather enticing, and the first year at the Intuit Dome could feature some fans that aren’t that Intu-it.
Not only is Chicago Bulls guard Lonzo Ball back, but he actually looks good
If you already took a look at our betting guide, you probably know that I’m higher than most on the Bulls. Not only do I like the Over on their win total of 27.5 games, but I also suggested a plus-money play on them to win 35+ games. And I did all of that before seeing Ball in action.
Ball, who hasn’t played a regular-season game since January 14th, 2022, has been dealing with serious knee issues for years now. However, it appears that an experimental meniscus transplant might have saved his career.
In two preseason games, Ball averaged 10.5 points and 2.5 assists per game in 15.5 minutes per game. The 26-year-old also went 8 for 15 from the floor and 5 for 11 from deep. Chicago didn’t overdo it with Ball’s minutes early on, and he’ll undoubtedly have to be cautious throughout the season. That could mean that Ball won’t be in a rush to play 25 minutes per night, and he likely won’t play back-to-backs. But when Ball was on the floor in the preseason, he looked like Lonzo Ball.
The guard was knocking down open shots, making plays for his teammates and disrupting opponents on the defensive end. Honestly, it was like he never left. And if Chicago is getting that version of Ball — even as something of a part-time player — then it’s going to be very difficult for the Bulls to bottom out. He just complements some of Chicago’s offensive-minded players so well, as he’s a selfless connector on one end and a willing defender on the other.
The Miami Heat are leaning into Moreyball
In the betting guide, I mentioned that Erik Spoelstra was vocal on Media Day about modernizing Miami’s offense. Last year, the Heat were first in the NBA in mid-range shooting frequency (35.6%). And over the years, this team has generally lacked offensive creativity and upside. Well, Spoelstra’s comments weren’t enough for me to back off a lean to the Under on their regular-season win total of 44.5. Talk is usually pretty cheap. But seeing the Heat in action has me regretting that.
This Miami team is really emphasizing shooting 3s and attacking the basket. Spoelstra doesn’t want as many possessions ending with contested mid-range jumpers.
Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Nikola Jovic all drove with purpose. Whether it was going to the rack and actually finishing or taking a few extra dribbles to draw in the defense for a kick, fewer possessions ended with guys picking up their dribbles and settling for bad shots.
Players are also ready to catch and shoot, making quicker decisions off the ball and running more off-ball actions to get themselves open. Even Bam Adebayo launched 13 triples in four preseason games.
All in all, nobody is going to mistake Miami for Boston. The Heat don’t have that type of shotmaking. But if Miami becomes a top-15 team in adjusted offensive rating, that significantly changes the group’s long-term outlook. This is going to be an elite defensive team, so anything above league average production on the other end of the floor increases the Heat’s ceiling.
At this point, Over 43.5 could be a good play. And if Miami can make a decent move at the deadline, maybe there’s more long-term upside than I first thought.
Zach Edey is ready to play and the Memphis Grizzlies need him
Edey was one of the most impressive rookies in preseason, and his performance against the Pacers blew up on social media. In 19 minutes of action on October 14th, Edey went 10 for 15 with 23 points and nine rebounds. And a lot of that work was done against Myles Turner, who is one of the better defensive centers in the league.
It’s very clear that Edey’s combination of a massive body and feathery touch is going to be difficult for opposing bigs to deal with. So, while foot speed might be a concern on the other end of the floor, Edey gives the Grizzlies an offensive option that they haven’t quite had in the Ja Morant era. If the lightning-quick guard can’t quickly get himself a shot, or find something on the perimeter for Desmond Bane and others, he can dump the ball inside to Edey for an easy rim attempt, or a gorgeous jump hook. It’s a late-clock safety valve that could take Memphis to another level.
It’s also nice that Edey looks like an instant-impact rookie because Jaren Jackson Jr. is dealing with an injured hamstring and could miss a few games to start the year. In recent years, Jackson’s absence would be a death blow to this team. That shouldn’t be the case anymore. And I’m looking forward to seeing what the two of them look like together.
The Phoenix Suns are running a modern offense and actually have some depth
One of the big talking points in the guide was that the Suns were going to look to launch more 3s under Mike Budenholzer. Despite having some of the best shooters on the planet, Phoenix shot only 32.6 triples per game last season. The best teams in the league shoot around 40 each night, so the Suns were at a huge disadvantage playing that way. Budenholzer knew that and stressed it during his first training camp, and it’s pretty clear his guys listened.
In five preseason games, the Suns shot 44.0 triples per game. Everybody on the team was quick to get their 3s up, and that includes Jusuf Nurkic. People are worried about how Nurkic will do in the Brook Lopez role in Budenholzer’s offense, but he looked just fine in Phoenix’s last preseason game — which was also his first because of a finger injury. In that meeting with the Lakers, Nurkic went 2 for 4 from 3 and didn’t hesitate at all. He’s willing and able to space the floor, and all of this is going to help the Suns build on last year’s disappointing finish.
However, not only were the Suns shooting more 3s in the preseason, but they were also running a much more sophisticated offense. Last year, Frank Vogel and Kevin Young often prioritized getting Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal the ball and having everybody else get out of the way. In theory, it’s not the worst idea in the world with such talented isolation players. But this year, there is a lot more off-ball movement when those three are going to work. So, if those three aren’t able to get good shots for themselves, they’ll be able to find cutters or kick out to open shooters. That should make Phoenix’s offense a lot less predictable. And it was predictability on offense that made the Suns so easy for the Timberwolves to defend last season. Budenholzer is even using interesting screen combinations to open up this offense and take it to another level.
It’s also hard to ignore the play of rookies Ryan Dunn and Oso Ighodaro. Phoenix did a lot to improve its rotation in free agency, and the depth was always going to be better than it was last season. Tyus Jones is a real point guard, Monte Morris is a real backup and Mason Plumlee is a useful body off the bench. But it’s starting to look like Budenholzer can also expect some contributions from the young guys. Dunn, who many believe can be an elite wing defender immediately, entered the league with some serious shooting concerns. But his shot looked great in the preseason, as he knocked down 13 of his 30 attempts from 3. That percentage probably isn’t sustainable for a guy that didn’t take 3s last year. But if he can flirt with 33.0% this year, he’s going to play real minutes for this team — and increase the group’s overall upside. And Ighodaro, who is athletic, active and has a high basketball IQ, could also help in a pinch.
This is a team that I was very high on when writing the guide, and I’m even higher on the group now. I genuinely believe Phoenix has a shot at having the second-best record in the West.
