Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, December 13, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Over the total is on runs of seven straight in last seven and 13-2 in the last 15 of the IND-PHI series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total in IND-PHI (o/u at 228)
*NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 261-205 SU but 202-252-12 ATS (44.5%) over the last six seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-6.5 vs. LAC)
* Under the total was 27-13 (67.5%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all eight games today
* CHICAGO is 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 games versus Charlotte
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO (-6.5 vs. CHA)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, INDIANA, PHOENIX, SAN ANTONIO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, MINNESOTA, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, INDIANA, MINNESOTA, DENVER, PHOENIX, SAN ANTONIO
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL on ML): HOME TEAMS – CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, MEMPHIS, CHICAGO, DENVER
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-CLE, LAL-MIN, LAC-DEN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – LAC-DEN, SAS-POR
UNDER – WSH-CLE, BKN-MEM, CHA-CHI, PHX-UTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WSH-CLE, LAC-DEN
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 46-20 SU and 41-22-3 ATS (65.1%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
12/13: UTAH vs. Phoenix
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+8 vs. PHX)
* Home teams on 3+ Days Rest are 26-11 SU and 23-7-7 ATS (76.7%) versus teams playing on a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
12/13: UTAH vs. Phoenix
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+8 vs. PHX)
* UNDER the total was 60-30 (66.7%) last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all eight games today
* UNDER the total was 27-13 (67.5%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all eight games today
* UNDER the total was 22-8 (73.3%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Straight Home game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
12/13: Under the total in CHICAGO-CHARLOTTE
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-CHI (o/u at 232)
* UNDER the total was 15-3 (83.3%) last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Home in 8+ Days game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
12/13: Under the total in CHICAGO-CHARLOTTE
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-CHI (o/u at 232)
* WASHINGTON is on 1-14 SU and 3-12 ATS skid when playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game
12/13: Fade WASHINGTON at Cleveland
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+17 at CLE)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 189-36 SU but just 104-118-3 ATS (46.8%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-10 vs. BKN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-78 (54.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 167-143 (53.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 236-176 (57.3%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): WSH-CLE (o/u at 232), BKN-MEM (o/u at 230)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 208-122 SU but 147-177-6 ATS (45.4%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 30-33-1 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MEMPHIS (-10 vs. BKN), DENVER (-6.5 vs. LAC)
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 261-205 SU but 202-252-12 ATS (44.5%) over the last 6 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-6.5 vs. LAC)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 249-263 SU and 227-279-6 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+8 vs PHX)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 270-252 SU and 234-275-11 ATS (46%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+8 vs. PHX)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS +6.5 (+2.1)
2. UTAH +8 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -9 (+2.6)
2. MEMPHIS -10 (+2.4)
3. SAN ANTONIO -3 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON +17 (+6.2)
2. BROOKLYN +10 (+2.6)
3. LA CLIPPERS +6.5 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -9 (+1.6)
2. PHOENIX -8 (+1.4)
3. PHILADELPHIA -6.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-UTA OVER 231.5 (+3.6)
2. LAC-DEN OVER 227.5 (+1.3)
3. WSH-CLE OVER 232 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. IND-PHI UNDER 228 (-1.1)
2. BKN-MEM UNDER 230 (-0.7)
3. SAS-POR UNDER 225 (-0.6)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS +6.5 (+1.9)
2. UTAH +8 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -9 (+3.4)
2. PHILADELPHIA -6.5 (+2.3)
3. CLEVELAND -17 (+2.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-UTA OVER 231.5 (+2.3)
2. SAS-POR OVER 225 (+1.3)
3. CHA-CHI OVER 232 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. IND-PHI UNDER 228 (-1.3)
2. BKN-MEM UNDER 230 (-0.7)
3. WSH-CLE UNDER 232 (-0.4)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) WASHINGTON at (502) CLEVELAND
* CLEVELAND has covered five straight ATS when hosting Washington
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS
(503) INDIANA at (504) PHILADELPHIA
* Over the total is on runs of seven straight in the last seven and 13-2 in the last 15 of the IND-PHI series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(507) BROOKLYN at (508) MEMPHIS
* BROOKLYN is 4-1 ATS in the last five games versus Memphis
Trend Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS
(509) CHARLOTTE at (510) CHICAGO
* CHICAGO is 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 games versus Charlotte
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
(511) LA CLIPPERS at (512) DENVER
* Underdogs are 6-0 ATS in the last six of the LAC-DEN series
Trend Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS
(513) PHOENIX at (514) UTAH
* Over the total has hit in five straight games between PHX and UTA
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(515) SAN ANTONIO at (516) PORTLAND
* Over the total is 6-2 in the last eight of the SAS-POR series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
