Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, December 20, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Road teams are 11-2-2 ATS in the last 15 of the OKC-MIA nonconference series
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (+1 at MIA)
* Under the total was 82-54 (60.3%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-CLE (o/u at 222)
* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 36-18 SU and 33-18-3 ATS (64.7%) hosting teams playing a 2DaysRest game over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-9 vs. MIL)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – PHILADELPHIA ML, CLEVELAND ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY ML
These last two NBA betting trends involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHA-PHI, MIL-CLE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, the majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while the majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – OKC-MIA
UNDER – CHA-PHI
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 63-41 SU and 67-36-1 ATS (65%) versus teams playing a 3rd Game in 4 Days over the last three seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-1 vs. OKC)
* Teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 80-50 SU and 78-49-3 ATS (61.4%) versus teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-9 vs MIL)
* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 36-18 SU and 33-18-3 ATS (64.7%) hosting teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-9 vs MIL)
* Under the total was 82-54 (60.3%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-CLE (o/u at 222)
* Under the total was 80-47 (63%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHA-PHI (o/u at 215.5), MIL-CLE (o/u at 222), OKC-MIA (o/u at 216.5)
* Under the total was 47-30 (61%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-CLE (o/u at 222)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-78 (54.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 168-143 (54%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 237-180 (56.8%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-PHI (o/u at 215.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 129-94 SU and 125-93-5 ATS (57.3%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+9 at CLE)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: OKLAHOMA CITY +1 (+2.9)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA -10.5 (+1.2)
2. CLEVELAND -9 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY +1 (+1.7)
2. CHARLOTTE +10.5 (+0.4)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CLEVELAND -9 (+2.3)
Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKC-MIA OVER 216.5 (+0.5)
2. CHA-PHI OVER 215.5 (+0.4)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MIL-CLE UNDER 222 (-0.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: OKLAHOMA CITY +1 (+5.3)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -9 (+0.6)
2. PHILADELPHIA -10.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIL-CLE OVER 222 (+2.5)
2(tie). CHA-PHI OVER 215.5 (+1.8)
OKC-MIA OVER 216.5 (+1.8)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(567) CHARLOTTE at (568) PHILADELPHIA
* Road teams are 6-2 ATS in the last eight of the CHA-PHI series
Trend Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS
(569) MILWAUKEE at (570) CLEVELAND
* Favorites are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the MIL-CLE rivalry in Cleveland
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS
(571) OKLAHOMA CITY at (572) MIAMI
* Road teams are 11-2-2 ATS in the last 15 of OKC-MIA h2h nonconference series
Trend Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS
