Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, November 1, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Under the total is 8-0 in the last eight games of Sacramento-Atlanta nonconference series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in SAC-ATL (o/u at 236.5)
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 93-58 SU and 90-58-3 ATS (60.8%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY): INDIANA (-4.5 at NOP)
* DENVER is on a 0-11 ATS skid (5-6 SU) playing its 3rd Straight Road game heading into 2024-25
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+4 at MIN)
* Over the total is 7-1 in the LAL-TOR series since 2021
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in LAL-TOR (o/u at 231)
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 159-134 SU and 165-120-8 ATS (57.9%) run.
System Match (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-7.5 vs ORL), OKLAHOMA CITY (-11 at POR)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, NEW YORK, ORLANDO, SACRAMENTO, LA LAKERS, INDIANA, OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, BROOKLYN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO, LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, NEW YORK
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, a ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL on ML): DENVER, OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL on ML): CHICAGO, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January ’23. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Matches (FADE ALL on ML): BOSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-NOP, OKC-POR
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-ATL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while the majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): NYK-DET, ORL-CLE, DEN-MIN
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 132-91 SU but 98-122-3 ATS (44.5%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
11/1: FADE MINNESOTA vs. Denver
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-4 vs. DEN)
* CHARLOTTE is 29-72 SU and 37-61-1 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
11/1: FADE CHARLOTTE vs. Boston
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+10.5 vs. BOS)
* DENVER is on a 0-11 ATS skid (5-6 SU) playing its 3rd Straight Road game heading into 2024-25
11/1: FADE DENVER at Minnesota
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+4 at MIN)
* PORTLAND is 24-59 SU and 30-53 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
11/1: FADE PORTLAND vs. Oklahoma City
System Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+11 vs. OKC)
* ATLANTA is 40-18 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4thin6Days game
11/1: OVER the total in ATLANTA-SACRAMENTO
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-ATL (o/u at 236.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 131-44 SU and 107-67-1 ATS (61.5%) run.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-7.5 vs ORL)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 93-58 SU and 90-58-3 ATS (60.8%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY): INDIANA (-4.5 at NOP)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, depending upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 84-69 (54.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 159-133 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 226-157 (59%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in BOS-CHA (o/u at 232.5), PLAY UNDER in OKC-POR (o/u at 221)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 198-117 SU, but 141-169-5 ATS (45.3%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 28-32-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (-4.5 at NOP)
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 131-80 SU but 92-115-4 ATS (44.4%) in the follow-up contest over the last six seasons. Included among this is a 78-102 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-10.5 at CHA)
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 110-115 SU but 115-95-5 ATS (54.8%), including 83-49-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+9 vs. LAL), ATLANTA (+6 vs. SAC)
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 253-199 SU but 195-245-12 ATS (44.3%) over the last 6 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 35-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-7.5 vs. ORL), BROOKLYN (-1.5 vs. CHI)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 269-220 (55%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-MIN (o/u at 219)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 245-236 SU and 217-251-11 ATS (46.4%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+10.5 vs. BOS)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 159-134 SU and 165-120-8 ATS (57.9%) run.
System Match (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-7.5 vs. ORL), OKLAHOMA CITY (-11 at POR)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 53-15 SU and 41-25-2 ATS (62.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11 at POR)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). TORONTO +9 (+1.3)
NEW ORLEANS +4.5 (+1.3)
3. DENVER +4 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -7.5 (+0.8)
2. NEW YORK -6.5 (+0.7)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -11 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TORONTO +9 (+3.8)
2. ATLANTA +6 (+2.5)
3. NEW ORLEANS +4.5 (+2.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN -1.5 (+2.6)
2. CLEVELAND -7.5 (+2.5)
3. MINNESOTA -4 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). NYK-DET OVER 217.5 (+0.7)
DEN-MIN OVER 219 (+0.7)
3. LAL-TOR OVER 231 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-BKN UNDER 226.5 (-3.3)
2. BOS-CHA UNDER 232 (-3.2)
3. ORL-CLE UNDER 218.5 (-1.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS +4.5 (+2.1)
2(tie). ATLANTA +6 (+0.9)
TORONTO +9 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN -1.5 (+1.3)
2(tie). BOSTON -10.5 (+0.7)
OKLAHOMA CITY -11 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYK-DET OVER 217.5 (+5.3)
2. DEN-MIN OVER 219 (+1.6)
3. OKC-POR OVER 221 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOS-CHA UNDER 232 (-3.7)
2. CHI-BKN UNDER 226.5 (-2.5)
3. SAC-ATL UNDER 236.5 (-0.4)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) BOSTON at (502) CHARLOTTE
* Over the total has converted in the last five of the BOS-CHA series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(503) NEW YORK at (504) DETROIT
* NEW YORK is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games at Detroit
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS
(505) ORLANDO at (506) CLEVELAND
* Favorites are 12-3 ATS in the last 15 of the ORL-CLE meetings
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS
(507) SACRAMENTO at (508) ATLANTA
* Under the total is 8-0 in the last eight games of the SAC-ATL nonconference series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(509) LA LAKERS at (510) TORONTO
* Over the total is 7-1 in the LAL-TOR series since 2021
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(513) INDIANA at (514) NEW ORLEANS
* NEW ORLEANS is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight games vs. IND at home
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS (517) OKLAHOMA CITY at (518) PORTLAND
* Over the total is 4-1 in the last five of the OKC-POR series at Portland
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
