The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, November 22, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Under the total was on a 35-12 (74.5%) run to close last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-HOU (o/u at 224.5)

-NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 239-254 SU and 219-268-6 ATS (45%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-16.5 at WSH), LA CLIPPERS (+3 vs. SAC)

* Favorites are 10-1 ATS in the POR-HOU series since start of 2021-22 season
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (-12.5 vs. POR)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while the majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON ML, GOLDEN STATE ML

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to u, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, BOSTON, GOLDEN STATE, ATLANTA, PORTLAND, SACRAMENTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PORTLAND, SACRAMENTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, GOLDEN STATE, ATLANTA, PORTLAND, DENVER

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – MILWAUKEE ML, HOUSTON ML, DENVER ML, LA CLIPPERS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN ML, MILWAUKEE ML, LA CLIPPERS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY): BROOKLYN ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON ML, GOLDEN STATE ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): BKN-PHI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): BOS-WSH

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 181-122 SU and 175-120 ATS (59.3%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
11/22: SACRAMENTO at La Clippers
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-3 at LAC)

* Home teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game scenario were 23-10 SU and 21-12 ATS (63.6%) over the last two seasons hosting teams playing on 3+ Days Rest.
11/22: LA CLIPPERS vs. Sacramento
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (+3 vs. SAC)

* Over the total was 106-75 (58.6%) over the last three seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
11/22: Over the total in LA CLIPPERS-SACRAMENTO
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-LAC (o/u at 221)

* Under the total was on a 35-12 (74.5%) run to close last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
11/22: Under the total in PORTLAND-HOUSTON
System Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-HOU (o/u at 224.5)

* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 37-54 SU and 35-56 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
11/22: Fade GOLDEN STATE at New Orleans
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-10.5 at NOP)

* INDIANA is 14-30 SU and 14-29-1 ATS in its last 44 3rd Straight Road games
11/22: Fade INDIANA at Milwaukee
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+5.5 at MIL)

* MILWAUKEE is on a 33-36 SU and 22-46-1 ATS skid in the last 69 when playing on standard One Day Rest
11/22: Fade MILWAUKEE vs. Indiana
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-5.5 vs IND)

* ATLANTA is 43-21 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
11/22: Over the total in ATLANTA-CHICAGO
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-CHI (o/u at 246)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 90-77 (53.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 162-140 (53.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 231-164 (58.5%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BOS-WSH (o/u at 236.5), GSW-NOP (o/u at 222.5), POR-HOU (o/u at 224.5) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 239-254 SU and 219-268-6 ATS (45%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-16.5 at WSH), LA CLIPPERS (+3 vs SAC)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 257-244 SU and 225-263-11 ATS (46.1%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-16.5 at WSH), SACRAMENTO (-3 at LAC)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 131-155 SU and 130-149-7 ATS (46.6%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-16.5 at WSH), SACRAMENTO (-3 at LAC)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 122-91 SU and 120-89-4 ATS (57.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-10.5 at NOP)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.4% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (168-188 ATS, 47.2%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (225-220 ATS, 50.6%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches: FADE – PHILADELPHIA (-5 vs. BKN)
SLIGHT PLAY – WASHINGTON (+16.5 vs BOS)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 201-248-1 ATS (44.8%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-110 SU and 58-75-3 ATS (43.6%).
System Matches (FADE): WASHINGTON (+16.5 vs. BOS)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. Indiana +5.5 (+1.2)
2. Washington +17 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. Philadelphia -5 (+1.7)
2. Denver -3 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. Houston -13 (+2.6)
2. Brooklyn +5 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. Golden State -11 (+1.8)
2. Boston -17 (+1.7)
3. Sacramento -3 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOS-WAS OVER 237 (+1.3)
2. ATL-CHI OVER 246 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-NOP UNDER 223 (-3.4)
2. IND-MIL UNDER 236 (-3)
3. SAC-LAC UNDER 221 (-1.3)

Today’s Top UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. Chicago +1 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 4 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. Philadelphia -5 (+5.7)
2. Houston -13 (+1.8)
3. Sacramento -3 (+0.9)
3. Denver -3 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DAL-DEN OVER 224.5 (+3.4)
2. BRK-PHI OVER 215 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-NOP UNDER 223 (-6)
2. POR-HOU UNDER 225 (-5.6)
3. SAC-LAC UNDER 221 (-2.2)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(539) BOSTON at (540) WASHINGTON
* BOSTON has won four of the last five ATS in the series at Washington
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

(541) INDIANA at (542) MILWAUKEE
* Underdogs are 7-2 ATS in the last nine games of the IND-MIL rivalry at Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

(543) ATLANTA at (544) CHICAGO
* CHICAGO is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of the series with Atlanta
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(547) PORTLAND at (548) HOUSTON
* Favorites are 10-1 ATS in the POR-HOU series since the start of the 2021-22 season
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

(551) SACRAMENTO at (552) LA CLIPPERS
* Under the total is 7-2 in the last nine games of the SAC-LAC rivalry in Los Angeles
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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