The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, November 8, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Boston is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 of their rivalry with BKN
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-13 vs. BKN)

* Under the total was on a 33-10 (66.3%) run to close last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-MEM (o/u at 231.5) 

* Memphis is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings at home with WSH
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (-7.5 vs. WSH)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, a ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL on ML): BOSTON, MINNESOTA, SACRAMENTO

NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 245-238 SU and 217-253-11 ATS (46.2%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-7 vs. MIL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, GOLDEN STATE, MILWAUKEE, LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MEMPHIS, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS, LA LAKERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, OKLAHOMA CITY

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, a ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL on ML): BOSTON, MINNESOTA, SACRAMENTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and a ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL on ML): ATLANTA, GOLDEN STATE, MILWAUKEE, PHOENIX

These last three systems involve totals: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-NYK, BKN-BOS, POR-MIN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): WSH-MEM

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): NOP-ORL, POR-MIN 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 180-119 SU and 173-118 ATS (59.5%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN (+13 at BOS), WASHINGTON (+7.5 at MEM) 

* Over the total was 105-72 (59.3%) over the last three seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BKN-BOS (o/u at 222), WSH-MEM (o/u at 231.5) 

* Over the total was 43-35 (55.1%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-NYK (o/u at 223) 

* Under the total was on a 33-10 (66.3%) run to close last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-MEM (o/u at 231.5) 

The following are 40 of the top team specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* CHARLOTTE is 30-73 SU and 38-62-1 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+7 vs. IND)

* GOLDEN STATE is on extended slide of 36-53 SU and 34-55 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+4 at CLE) 

* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 36-24 SU and 40-20 ATS in its last 60 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+7.5 at LAL)

* ATLANTA is 42-19 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-DET (o/u at 227.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 132-46 SU and 108-69-1 ATS (61%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-4 vs. GSW), OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs. HOU)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 84-71 (54.2%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 161-138 (53.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 226-161 (58.4%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BKN-BOS (o/u at 222), POR-MIN (o/u at 219.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 199-118 SU but 142-170-5 ATS (45.5%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 28-32-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-12 vs. POR)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 234-251 SU and 215-265-5 ATS (44.8%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-7.5 vs. WSH)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 245-238 SU and 217-253-11 ATS (46.2%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-7 vs. MIL)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 162-137 SU and 168-122-9 ATS (57.9%) run.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-1 vs. ATL) 

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebound well when favored the next time out, going 150-57 SU and 115-90-2 ATS (56.1%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (*if they become favored at DET, +1 currently)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.8% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (163-182 ATS, 47.2%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (224-215 ATS, 51%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE): ORLANDO (-6.5 vs. NOP)

NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have also been a great wager when they are a strong defensive team, as those allowing less than 110 PPG are 46-45 SU and 55-32-4 ATS (63.2%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY): ORLANDO (-6.5 vs. NOP) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 196-242-1 ATS (44.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-109 SU and 58-74-3 ATS (43.9%).
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (-4 vs. GSW) 

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 45-63-1 ATS (41.7%) in the next game, including 21-34 ATS (38.2%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (-4 vs. GSW)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +13 (+2.0)
2(tie). CHARLOTTE +7 (+1.7)
MIAMI +3 (+1.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS -7.5 (+2.0)
2(tie). ORLANDO -6.5 (+1.0)
DALLAS -2.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +7 (+3.6)
2. HOUSTON +8.5 (+2.4)
3. GOLDEN STATE +4 (+2.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS -7.5 (+2.6)
2. NEW YORK -7 (+2.2)
3. DETROIT -1 (+2.0) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-DEN OVER 221.5 (+3.9)
2. ATL-DET OVER 227.5 (+3.8)
3. WSH-MEM OVER 231 (+2.7) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOU-OKC UNDER 222 (-5.7)
2. MIL-NYK UNDER 223 (-2.5)
3. LAC-SAC UNDER 223.5 (-0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +7 (+2.8)
2. MILWAUKEE +7 (+2.7)
3. ATLANTA +1 (+2.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO -6.5 (+2.5)
2. CLEVELAND -4 (+1.7)
3. MEMPHIS -7.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BKN-BOS OVER 221.5 (+1.4)
2. NOP-ORL OVER 212.5 (+1.2)
3. LAC-SAC OVER 223.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-CLE UNDER 231 (-3.2)
2. HOU-OKC UNDER 222 (-1.4)
3. PHX-DAL UNDER 232 (-1.1) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(531) ATLANTA at (532) DETROIT
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last two seasons in the ATL-DET matchups
System Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(533) NEW ORLEANS at (534) ORLANDO
* ORLANDO has won five straight ATS against NOP (also 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings)
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS 

(537) GOLDEN STATE at (538) CLEVELAND
* GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 ATS in the last nine visits to Cleveland, but did lose last time.
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS 

(541) PHOENIX at (542) DALLAS
* Under the total is 5-1 in all six PHX-DAL matchups since 2023
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(543) BROOKLYN at (544) BOSTON
* BOSTON is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 of their rivalry with BKN
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS 

(545) HOUSTON at (546) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Under the total is 9-3 in the HOU-OKC series in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(547) WASHINGTON at (548) MEMPHIS
* MEMPHIS is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings at home with WSH
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS
* Under the total has converted in all six matchups in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(549) MIAMI at (550) DENVER
* Road teams are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between MIA and DEN
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS (555) PHILADELPHIA at (556) LA LAKERS
* Home teams are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 of the PHI-LAL meetings, but did lose last time.
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS

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