The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, December 23, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* POR and DAL series is on an extended 17-3 Over the total run in the last 20
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total in POR-DAL (o/u at 228)

* Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 54-86 SU and 57-78-5 ATS (42.2%) slide, including 28-47-3 ATS in the last 78 games and 18-34 ATS when a pick ’em or favorite.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-4.5 vs. PHX)

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 99-17 SU but 51-63-3 ATS (44.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (-14 vs. UTA)

* Under the total was 11-1 (91.7%) last season when the home team was playing its 4th Home in 10+ Days and the road team was playing on One Day Rest.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-ORL (o/u at 215)

* INDIANA is 15-32 SU and 15-31-1 ATS in its last 47 3rd Straight Road games
Trend Match (FADE): INDIANA (+6 at GSW)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, BOSTON, MINNESOTA, MILWAUKEE, WASHINGTON, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, WASHINGTON, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, MINNESOTA, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, MIAMI, MEMPHIS, DALLAS, PHOENIX

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK ML, MILWAUKEE ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BKN-MIA, MIN-ATL, MIL-CHI, LAC-MEM, IND-GSW, DET-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – TOR-NYK
UNDER – UTA-CLE, MIL-CHI, LAC-MEM

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – SAS-PHI, BOS-ORL
UNDER – BKN-MIA

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 17-30 SU and 16-30-1 ATS (34.8%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
Fade DENVER vs. Phoenix
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-4.5 vs. PHX)

* Under the total was 107-78-1 (57.8%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
Under the total in CLEVELAND-UTAH
System Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-CLE (o/u at 232.5)

* Over the total was 50-40 (55.6%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
Over the total in NEW YORK-TORONTO
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-NYK (o/u at 226)

* Over the total is 30-17 (63.8%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
Over the total in DENVER-PHOENIX
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-DEN (o/u at 230.5)

* Under the total was 11-1 (91.7%) last season when the home team was playing its 4th Home in 10+ Days and the road team was playing on One Day Rest.
Under the total in ORLANDO-BOSTON
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-ORL (o/u at 215)

* Under the total is on a 54-18 (75%) in the last 72 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all games today except HOU-CHA

* Under the total was 26-10 (72.2%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Straight Home game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
Under the total in CLEVELAND-UTAH
Under the total in ORLANDO-BOSTON
Under the total in DALLAS-PORTLAND
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UTA-CLE, BOS-ORL, POR-DAL

The following are 40 top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* INDIANA is 15-32 SU and 15-31-1 ATS in its last 47 3rd Straight Road games
Fade INDIANA at Golden State
Trend Match (FADE): INDIANA (+6 at GSW)

* MILWAUKEE is on a 35-37 SU and 24-47-1 ATS skid in the last 72 when playing on standard One Day Rest
Fade MILWAUKEE at Chicago
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at CHI)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 27-17 SU and 29-14-1 ATS in its last 44 games playing on 2 Days Rest
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-18 vs WSH)

* UTAH is 13-18 SU but 22-9 ATS in its last 31 3rd Straight Road games
UTAH at Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+14 at CLE)

* UTAH is on a 42-21 Over the total run when playing on the road with One Day Rest
Over the total in UTAH-CLEVELAND
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-CLE (o/u at 232.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 190-36 SU but just 105-118-3 ATS (47.1%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-14 vs. UTA), OKLAHOMA CITY (-18 vs. WSH)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-78 (54.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 168-143 (54%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 237-182 (56.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – UTA-CLE, BOS-ORL, BKN-MIA, POR-DAL, WSH-OKC
UNDER – TOR-NYK

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trends search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 54-86 SU and 57-78-5 ATS (42.2%) slide, including 28-47-3 ATS in the last 78 games and 18-34 ATS when a pick ’em or favorite.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-4.5 vs. PHX)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 250-133 SU but just 163-208-12 ATS (43.9%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-4.5 vs. PHX)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 277-232 (54.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-MIA (o/u at 213)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 251-267 SU and 229-283-6 ATS (44.7%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-14 vs. UTA)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 276-257 SU and 238-282-11 ATS (45.8%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-14 vs. UTA), MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at CHI)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 141-163 SU and 137-160-7 ATS (46.1%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at CHI)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 168-141 SU and 171-129-9 ATS (57%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at CHI), PORTLAND (+10.5 at DAL), INDIANA (+6 at GSW)

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 169-63 SU and 125-104-3 ATS (54.6%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-6 vs. SAS)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 99-17 SU BUT 51-63-3 ATS (44.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (-14 vs UTA)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of 7-games or more become play against teams in general, going 206-256-2 ATS (44.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7-games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-115 SU and 60-78-4 ATS (43.5%).
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+14 at NYK)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +6 (+0.9)
2(tie). CHICAGO +1.5 (+0.7)
ORLANDO +10.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS -6 (+1.7)
2. DENVER -4.5 (+1.5)
3. NEW YORK -14 (+1.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTAH +14 (+4.4)
2. SAN ANTONIO +6 (+4.0)
3. DETROIT +5.5 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -18 (+6.6)
2. HOUSTON -6.5 (+1.4)
3. GOLDEN STATE -6 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-DEN OVER 230.5 (+4.3)
2. POR-DAL OVER 229.5 (+1.9)
3. UTA-CLE OVER 232.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOU-CHA UNDER 220 (-3.1)
2. MIN-ATL UNDER 223.5 (-2.4)
3. WSH-OKC UNDER 226 (-1.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +10.5 (+1.9)
2. CHARLOTTE +6.5 (+1.2)
3. UTAH +14 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS -5.5 (+3.2)
2. MEMPHIS -6 (+2.8)
3. NEW YORK -14 (+2.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-DEN OVER 230.5 (+5.3)
2. IND-GSW OVER 229.5 (+3.2)
3. MIL-CHI OVER 231 (+2.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. POR-DAL UNDER 229.5 (-3.3)
2. HOU-CHA UNDER 220 (-2.8)
3. BOS-ORL UNDER 215 (-1.9)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(531) UTAH at (532) CLEVELAND
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six games when Utah visits Cleveland
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(533) SAN ANTONIO at (534) PHILADELPHIA
* Road teams have covered five straight ATS in the SAS-PHI series
Trend Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS

(537) BOSTON at (538) ORLANDO
* Under the total is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between BOS and ORL in Orlando
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(541) MINNESOTA at (542) ATLANTA
* ATLANTA is 8-1 ATS in the last nine games versus Minnesota
Trend Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS

(549) WASHINGTON at (550) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Underdogs are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings between WSH and OKC
Trend Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS

* Over the total is 5-0 in all five meetings since 2022
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(551) PORTLAND at (552) DALLAS
* POR and DAL series is on extended 17-3 Over the total run in the last 20
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

* Favorites have covered eight straight ATS in the POR-DAL matchups
Trend Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

(555) INDIANA at (556) GOLDEN STATE
* INDIANA has covered five straight ATS in visits to Golden State
* Underdogs are 8-0 in the last eight of the IND-GSW series
Trends Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

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