The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, November 18, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Road teams have covered the last 10 ATS matchups between WSH and NYK
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+14 at NYK)

* Houston is on a 34-14 Over the total surge when playing on the road in a 3rd in 4 Days scheduling scenario
System Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-MIL (o/u at 224.5) 

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home are 32-16 SU and 32-15-1 ATS (68.1%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-4.5 vs. ATL)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): CHI-DET (o/u at 234) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, INDIANA, ORLANDO, GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, ORLANDO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): SACRAMENTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, ORLANDO, SACRAMENTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, PHILADELPHIA, INDIANA 

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT ML, GOLDEN STATE ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON ML

These last four systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-DET, PHI-MIA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UNDER – CHI-DET, IND-TOR 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – PHI-MIA, ORL-PHX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): CHI-DET

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 68-33 SU and 60-37-4 ATS (61.9%) hosting teams playing an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
11/18: SACRAMENTO vs. Atlanta
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-4.5 vs. ATL)

* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 26-38 SU but 36-28-2 ATS (56.3%) facing hosts playing a 3rdHomein4Days game over the last four seasons.
11/18: ATLANTA at Sacramento
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+4.5 at SAC)

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home are 32-16 SU and 32-15-1 ATS (68.1%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
11/18: SACRAMENTO vs. Atlanta
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-4.5 vs. ATL) 

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 27-17 SU and 27-15-2 ATS (64.3%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
11/18: NEW YORK vs. Washington
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-14 vs. WSH)

11/18: SACRAMENTO vs. Atlanta
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-4.5 vs. ATL)

* Over the total was 81-68 (54.4%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4thin6Days game.
11/18: OVER the total in ATLANTA-SACRAMENTO
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-SAC (o/u at 236) 

* Over the total was 26-15 (63.4%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing on 2 Days Rest.
11/18: OVER the total in MIAMI-PHILADELPHIA
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-MIA (o/u at 212.5)

11/18: OVER the total in PHOENIX-ORLANDO
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-PHX (o/u at 210.5) 

* Over the total was 46-37 (55.4%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
11/18: OVER the total in TORONTO-INDIANA
System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-TOR (o/u at 233.5) 

The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* ATLANTA is on 6-31 SU and 7-29-1 ATS skid when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
11/18: FADE ATLANTA at Sacramento
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+4.5 at SAC)

* LA CLIPPERS are on a 14-23 SU and 8-29 ATS skid in its last 37 tries playing a 3rd in 4 days game
11/18: FADE LA CLIPPERS vs. Golden State
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (+4.5 vs. GSW)

* MILWAUKEE is on a 31-36 SU and 21-45-1 ATS skid in last 67 when playing on standard One Day Rest
11/18: FADE MILWAUKEE vs. Houston
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-3.5 vs. HOU)

* WASHINGTON is on 10-8 SU and 13-4 ATS run on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
11/18: WASHINGTON at New York
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+14 at NYK) 

* HOUSTON is on a 34-14 Over the total surge when playing on the road in a 3rd in 4 Days scheduling scenario
11/18: OVER the total in HOUSTON-MILWAUKEE
System Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-MIL (o/u at 224.5) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 89-76 (53.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 161-140 (53.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 229-163 (58.4%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): WSH-NYK (o/u at 232.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 163-137 SU and 168-123-9 ATS (57.7%) run.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-3.5 vs. HOU) 

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 122-90 SU and 119-89-4 ATS (57.2%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+3.5 at MIL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.9% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (167-188 ATS, 47%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (225-217 ATS, 50.9%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches: FADE – TORONTO (+4 vs. IND)
SLIGHT PLAY – WASHINGTON (+14 at NYK)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 199-247-1 ATS (44.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-109 SU and 58-74-3 ATS (43.9%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+14 at NYK), TORONTO (+4 vs. IND)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATLANTA +5 (+2.6)
2. PHILADELPHIA +5 (+2.0)
3. HOUSTON +3.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -14 (+1.5)
2. INDIANA -4 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON +3.5 (+3.6)
2. LA CLIPPERS +4.5 (+2.5)
3. CHICAGO +4.5 (+0.9) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -14 (+2.8)
2. INDIANA -4 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORL-PHX OVER 210 (+0.6)
2. PHI-MIA OVER 212 (+0.2)
3. IND-TOR OVER 233.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-DET UNDER 234 (-4.6)
2. ATL-SAC UNDER 237 (-2.2)
3. WSH-NYK UNDER 233 (-2.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATLANTA +5 (+3.9)
2. PHILADELPHIA +5 (+3.4)
3. LA CLIPPERS +4.5 (+2.6) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -14 (+2.0)
2. INDIANA -4 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORL-PHX OVER 210 (+1.4)
2. IND-TOR OVER 233.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-SAC UNDER 237 (-4.4)
2. CHI-DET UNDER 234 (-4.3)
3. PHI-MIA UNDER 212 (-2.9)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(557) WASHINGTON at (558) NEW YORK
* Road teams have covered the last 10 ATS matchups between WSH and NYK
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS 

(561) INDIANA at (562) TORONTO
* Over the total is 5-0-1 in the IND-TOR series since 2023
System Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(563) HOUSTON at (564) MILWAUKEE
* Home teams have covered the last six games ATS between HOU and MIL
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS 

(565) ORLANDO at (566) PHOENIX
* ORLANDO is 5-0 ATS in the last five matchups versus Phoenix
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS 

(567) ATLANTA at (568) SACRAMENTO
* Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the nonconference series between ATL and SAC but did lose last time
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(569) GOLDEN STATE at (570) LA CLIPPERS
* Over the total is 4-1 in the last five games of GSW-LAC rivalry in Los Angeles
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

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