The following NBA trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, November 9, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

NBA teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 46-63-1 ATS (42.2%) in the next game, including 21-34 ATS (38.2%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (-13 vs. BKN) 

In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 93-61 SU and 90-61-3 ATS (59.6%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO (+3 at ATL)

* LA CLIPPERS are on a 13-22 SU and 7-28 ATS skid entering the 2024-25 season playing a 3rd in 4 days game
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-6 vs. TOR) 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-LAC (o/u at 225) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to u, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, CLEVELAND

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL on ML): SAN ANTONIO, CLEVELAND, ATLANTA, LA CLIPPERS

This last system involves totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-LAC 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 16-26 SU and 15-26-1 ATS (36.6%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
11/9: FADE ATLANTA vs. Chicago
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-3 vs CHI)

* Over the total was 80-63 (55.9%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
11/9: OVER the total in BROOKLYN-CLEVELAND
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-CLE (o/u at 221.5) 

* Over the total was 36-24 (60%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
11/9: OVER the total in CLEVELAND-BROOKLYN
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-CLE (o/u at 221.5) 

* Over the total was 26-14 (65%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing on 2 Days Rest.
11/9: OVER the total in LA CLIPPERS-TORONTO
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-LAC (o/u at 225) 

* Over the total is 28-14 (66.7%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a OneDayRest game.
11/9: OVER the total in ATLANTA-CHICAGO
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-ATL (o/u at 237.5) 

The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* LA CLIPPERS are on a 13-22 SU and 7-28 ATS skid entering the 2024-25 season playing a 3rd in 4 days game
11/9: FADE LA CLIPPERS vs. Toronto
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-6 vs. TOR)

* UTAH is 11-15 SU BUT 19-7 ATS in its last 26 3rd Straight Road games
11/9: UTAH at San Antonio
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+6.5 at SAS) 

* ATLANTA is 43-19 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
11/9: OVER the total in ATLANTA-CHICAGO
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-ATL (o/u at 237.5) 

* TORONTO is 20-7 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 3rd Straight Road game
11/9: OVER the total in TORONTO-LA CLIPPERS
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-LAC (o/u at 225) 

* UTAH is on a 37-19 Over the total run when playing on the road with One Day Rest
11/9: OVER the total in UTAH-SAN ANTONIO
System Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-SAS (o/u at 221.5) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 93-61 SU and 90-61-3 ATS (59.6%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO (+3 at ATL)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 85-72 (54.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 161-138 (53.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 226-161 (58.4%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): BKN-CLE (o/u at 221.5) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 51-82 SU and 54-75-4 ATS (41.9%) slide, including 25-44-2 ATS in the last 71 games and 17-31 ATS when a pick ’em or favorite.
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+13 at CLE)

Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 200-118 SU but 143-170-5 ATS (45.7%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 29-32-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-13 vs. BKN)

NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 132-80 SU but 93-115-4 ATS (44.7%) in the follow-up contest over the last six seasons. Included among this is a 79-102 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+3 at ATL) 

NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 64-48 SU and 63-47-2 ATS (57.3%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-13 vs. BKN)

NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 246-238 SU and 218-253-11 ATS (46.3%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-13 vs. BKN)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 92-17 SU but 48-59-3 ATS (44.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (-13 vs. BKN)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.6% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (164-182 ATS, 47.4%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (224-215 ATS, 51%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO (+3 at ATL)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 197-242-1 ATS (44.9%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-109 SU and 58-74-3 ATS (43.9%).
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (-13 vs. BKN)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 46-63-1 ATS (42.2%) in the next game, including 21-34 ATS (38.2%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (-13 vs. BKN)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TORONTO +6 (+0.6)
2. CHICAGO +3 (+0.4)
3. BROOKLYN +13 (+0.2) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
SAN ANTONIO -6.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO -6.5 (+4.1)
2. LA CLIPPERS -6 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +13 (+3.0)
2. CHICAGO +3 (+2.3) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BKN-CLE OVER 221 (+1.8)
2. UTA-SAS OVER 221.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-ATL UNDER 237.5 (-1.7)
2. TOR-LAC UNDER 225 (-0.2) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: |
UTAH +6.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS -6 (+2.6)
2. CLEVELAND -13 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BKN-CLE OVER 221 (+2.8)
2. UTA-SAS OVER 221.5 (+0.4)
3. CHI-ATL OVER 237.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
TOR-LAC UNDER 225 (-2.3) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

 (557) UTAH at (558) SAN ANTONIO
* ROAD TEAMS have won five of the last six meetings between UTA and SAS
System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS

(559) BROOKLYN at (560) CLEVELAND
* OVER the total is 5-1 in the BKN-CLE series at Cleveland since 2021
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(561) CHICAGO at (562) ATLANTA
* CHICAGO is 9-3 ATS in the series with Atlanta in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS

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