Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, October 26, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-CHA, ORL-MEM
SACRAMENTO is on runs of 5-0 ATS in the last five overall matchups with LAL and 7-1 ATS in the last eight head-to-head meetings in Los Angeles
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-1 at LAL)
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 91-54 SU and 86-57-2 ATS (60.1%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-5.5 at CHA)
Over the total was 24-11 (68.6%) last season when the home team was on away-to-home back-to-back and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-MIN (o/u at 218.5)
Houston is on a 34-12 Over the total surge when playing on the road in a 3rd in 4 Days scheduling scenario
System Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-SAS (o/u at 222.5)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, BOSTON, MIAMI, ORLANDO, OKLAHOMA CITY, DALLAS, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, MINNESOTA, OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, CLEVELAND, BOSTON, DALLAS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches: FADE MAJORITY HOME TEAMS ML, SLIGHT PLAY MAJORITY ROAD TEAMS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI ML, SAN ANTONIO ML, SACRAMENTO ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO ML, SACRAMENTO ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU, but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML
These last three NBA betting trend systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-WSH, BOS-DET, MIA-CHA, ORL-MEM, HOU-SAS, DAL-PHX, SAC-LAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): LAC-DEN, TOR-MIN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-CHA, ORL-MEM
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Hosts playing in an away-to-home back-to-back game scenario were 13-22 SU and 11-23-1 ATS (32.4%) last season, hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+14.5 at MIN)
* Over the total was 40-29 (58%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a home-to-away back-to-back game.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BOS-DET (o/u at 225.5), OKC-CHI (o/u at 231.5), SAC-LAL (o/u at 230)
* Over the total was 24-11 (68.6%) last season when the home team was on an away-to-home back-to-back game and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-MIN (o/u at 218.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation NBA Betting Trends
* Houston is on a 34-12 Over the total surge when playing on the road in a 3rd in 4 Days scheduling scenario
System Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-SAS (o/u at 222.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on some various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 61-22 SU & 54-28-1 ATS (65.9%).
System Matches (PLAY): MIAMI (-5.5 at CHA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 172-32 SU but just 89-112-3 ATS (44.3%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-14.5 vs. TOR), OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 at CHI)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 84-69 (54.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 158-131 (54.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 225-154 (59.4%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in BOS-DET (o/u at 225.5), PLAY OVER in TOR-MIN (o/u at 218.5), PLAY OVER in OKC-CHI (o/u at 231.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 134-47 SU and 111-68-2 ATS (62%) in their last 181 tries.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-8 vs. LAC)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 237-127 SU but just 156-197-11 ATS (44.2%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-14.5 vs. TOR)
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 253-195 SU but 194-242-12 ATS (44.5%) over the last six seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 35-62 ATS.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+10 vs. OKC)
Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 91-54 SU and 86-57-2 ATS (60.1%) in that follow-up try over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-5.5 at CHA)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 265-214 (55.3%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): ORL-MEM, TOR-MIN, HOU-SAS, SAC-LAL
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 231-250 SU and 213-263-5 ATS (44.7%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE ALL): ORLANDO (-1 at MEM), LA LAKERS (-1 vs SAC)
NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 239-233 SU and 212-247-11 ATS (46.2%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-14.5 vs. TOR), CHARLOTTE (+5.5 vs. MIA), CHICAGO (+10 vs. OKC)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 116-86 SU and 114-85-3 ATS (57.3%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 at CHI)
NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 149-54 SU and 115-86-2 ATS (57.2%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (*if they become favorites at LAL, +1 currently)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS YET THIS SEASON
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHOENIX +3 (+2.8)
2. LA LAKERS +1 (+2.3)
3. SAN ANTONIO +1.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). DENVER -8 (+2.2)
MINNESOTA -14.5 (+2.2)
3. CLEVELAND -9.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +5.5 (+3.1)
2(tie). PHOENIX +3 (+2.3)
LA LAKERS +1 (+2.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -13.5 (+1.3)
2. MINNESOTA -14.5 (+1.2)
3(tie). MEMPHIS -1 (+0.3)
HOUSTON -1.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOU-SAS OVER 222.5 (+2.8)
2. LAC-DEN OVER 218.5 (+1.8)
3. TOR-MIN OVER 218.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORL-MEM UNDER 223 (-8.0)
2. MIA-CHA UNDER 224 (-5.1)
3. OKC-CHI UNDER 231.5 (-2.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHOENIX +3 (+2.7)
2. SAN ANTONIO +1.5 (+2.3)
3. LA LAKERS +1 (+2.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DENVER -8 (+2.3)
2. MEMPHIS -1 (+1.5)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -10 (+0.4)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
HOU-SAS OVER 222.5 (+7.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-CHA UNDER 224 (-9.3)
2. ORL-MEM UNDER 223 (-9.2)
3. OKC-CHI UNDER 231.5 (-4.8)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(553) LA CLIPPERS at (554) DENVER
* Under the total is 6-1-1 in the LAC-DEN series in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 218.5)
(555) CLEVELAND at (556) WASHINGTON
* Home teams have covered the last five ATS of the series
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+9.5 vs CLE)
(557) BOSTON at (558) DETROIT
* Boston has covered six of the last seven ATS in meetings versus Detroit
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-13.5 at DET)
(559) MIAMI at (560) CHARLOTTE
* Home teams are 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven of the MIA-CHA rivalry
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+5.5 vs MIA)
(563) TORONTO at (564) MINNESOTA
* Home teams have covered the last five ATS in the series
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-14.5 vs TOR)
(565) OKLAHOMA CITY at (566) CHICAGO
* Oklahoma City is 5-0-1 ATS versus Chicago since 2022
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 at CHI)
(567) HOUSTON at (568) SAN ANTONIO
* Home teams are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the HOU-SAS rivalry
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+1.5 vs HOU)
(571) SACRAMENTO at (572) LA LAKERS
* Sacramento is on runs of 5-0 ATS in the last five matchups with LAL and 7-1 ATS in the last eight head-to-head meetings in Los Angeles
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-1 at LAL)
