The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, April 13, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 78-65-3 (54.5%). Here are today’s results: 

– OKLAHOMA CITY (-12.5 at NOP)
Two DK Betting Splits systems, Makinen bettor ratings projection, and recent head-to-head trend all favor OKC

– PORTLAND (-6 vs LAL)
Two DK Betting Splits systems, extreme stat system #6, Makinen effective strength ratings projection, and recent head-to-head trend all favor POR + extreme stat system #12 fades LAL

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 99-60 SU and 94-62-3 ATS (60.3%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-8 at MIL) 

* ATLANTA is 52-30 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-ATL (o/u at 219.5) 

* OKLAHOMA CITY has dominated NOP in this situation lately (6-0 SU and ATS in the last six overall head-to-head games and 11-1 SU and 12-0 ATS in the last 12 visits to NOP)
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-12.5 at NOP)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

–   Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–   Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–   Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–   Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, MEMPHIS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, DETROIT, INDIANA, DENVER, OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, DETROIT, INDIANA, PHILADELPHIA, CHARLOTTE, TORONTO, DENVER, PORTLAND, GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, MEMPHIS, MIAMI 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, OKLAHOMA CITY, PORTLAND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, NEW YORK, DETROIT, ATLANTA, SACRAMENTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, a ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY ML 

These last four systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-GSW 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DAL-MEM, DEN-HOU
UNDER – TOR-SAS, CHI-PHI 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – WSH-MIA, NYK-BKN, ORL-ATL, CHA-BOS, LAL-POR

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-GSW 

The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 57-51 SU and 46-59-3 ATS skid in L108 when playing on standard One Day Rest
4/13: Fade MILWAUKEE vs. Detroit
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+8 vs. DET) 

* NEW YORK is on 29-25 SU and 33-21 ATS run on the ROAD in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
4/13: NEW YORK at Brooklyn
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-6.5 at BKN) 

* PORTLAND is 35-72 SU and 43-64 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
4/13: Fade PORTLAND vs. LA Lakers
Trend Match (FADE): PORTLAND (-6 vs. LAL)

* ATLANTA is 52-30 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
4/13: Over the total in ATLANTA-ORLANDO
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-ATL (o/u at 219.5) 

* UTAH is on a 51-27 Over the total run when playing on the road with One Day Rest
4/13: Over the total in UTAH-MINNESOTA
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-MIN (o/u at 232.5) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 110-90 (55%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 224-175 (56.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 285-220 (56.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CHA-BOS (o/u at 211.5), OKC-NOP (o/u at 232.5)
UNDER – PHX-SAC (o/u at 222.5), UTA-MIN (o/u at 232.5) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 251-133 SU but 178-198-8 ATS (47.3%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-35-1 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-8 vs. WSH), OKLAHOMA CITY (-12.5 at NOP) 

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 149-55 SU and 120-82-2 ATS (59.4%) in their last 204 tries.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-6 vs. LAL)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for the hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 300-231 SU but 238-278-15 ATS (46.1%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 42-67-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-8 vs. WSH) 

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 99-60 SU and 94-62-3 ATS (60.3%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-8 at MIL) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 312-265 (54.1%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-CLE (o/u at 226.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 294-309 SU and 270-325-8 ATS (45.4%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (+6 at POR)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 336-304 SU but 290-330-18 ATS (46.8%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-8 vs. WSH), BOSTON (-11 vs. CHA), OKLAHOMA CITY (-12.5 at NOP) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 167-182 SU and 157-182-10 ATS (46.3%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-12.5 at NOP)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 257-307-4 ATS (45.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 31-136 SU and 71-90-6 ATS (44.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (+8 vs. DET), LA CLIPPERS (+4 at GSW)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND +7 (+3.8)
2. PHOENIX +15.5 (+3.2)
3. CHARLOTTE +10.5 (+2.6) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI -8.5 (+2.8)
2. CHICAGO -9.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +6.5 (+4.5)
2. PHOENIX +15.5 (+2.9)
3. CHARLOTTE +10.5 (+2.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO -5.5 (+2.8)
2. DENVER -9 (+0.3)
3. PORTLAND -6 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAC-GSW OVER 220 (+2.2)
2. CHA-BOS OVER 210 (+1.9)
3. DET-MIL OVER 224 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKC-NOP UNDER 232.5 (-7.1)
2. DEN-HOU UNDER 234.5 (-1.9)
3. CHI-PHI UNDER 235 (-1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS +1 (+3.0)
2. PHOENIX +15.5 (+2.8)
3. CHARLOTTE +10.5 (+2.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO -9.5 (+1.5)
2. NEW YORK -6.5 (+0.7)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -12.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAC-GSW OVER 220 (+4.7)
2. DET-MIL OVER 224 (+2.4)
3. PHX-SAC OVER 222.5 (+1.8) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKC-NOP UNDER 232.5 (-7.7)
2. LAL-POR UNDER 218 (-2.2)
3. DEN-HOU UNDER 234.5 (-2.0)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(541) WASHINGTON at (542) MIAMI
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the WSH-MIA head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(543) NEW YORK at (544) BROOKLYN
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of NYK-BKN head-to-head divisional series at Brooklyn
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(545) DETROIT at (546) MILWAUKEE
* Over the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the MIL-DET head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(547) INDIANA at (548) CLEVELAND
* Road teams are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of the IND-CLE head-to-head matchups
Trend Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS 

(549) CHICAGO at (550) PHILADELPHIA
* Road teams are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 head-to-head meetings between CHI and PHI
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS 

(551) ORLANDO at (552) ATLANTA
* Under the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the ORL-ATL head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(553) CHARLOTTE at (554) BOSTON
* BOSTON is 14-1 SU and 12-2-1 ATS in the last 15 games hosting CHA
Trend Match: PLAY BOSTON

(555) TORONTO at (556) SAN ANTONIO
* Road teams are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six of the TOR-SAS head-to-head nonconference series
Trend Match: PLAY TORONTO 

(557) DALLAS at (558) MEMPHIS
* Under the total is 12-3 in the last 15 of the DAL-MEM head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(559) PHOENIX at (560) SACRAMENTO
* Favorites are 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the PHX-SAC head-to-head divisional matchups
Trend Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO 

(563) UTAH at (564) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight head-to-head meetings with UTA
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA 

(565) OKLAHOMA CITY at (566) NEW ORLEANS
* OKLAHOMA CITY has dominated NOP in this situation lately (6-0 SU and ATS in the last six overall head-to-head games and 11-1 SU and 12-0 ATS in the last 12 visits to NOP)
Trend Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS 

(567) LA LAKERS at (568) PORTLAND
* Favorites are 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS in the last 14 of LAL-POR head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY PORTLAND 

(569) LA CLIPPERS at (570) GOLDEN STATE
* LA CLIPPERS are 5-0 SU and ATS in the last five head-to-head games versus GSW
Trend Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS

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