As much as I’ve enjoyed analyzing the NFL for fake football for the last 30+ years, there’s a different kind of joy when you handicap a player well for fantasy and also win a prop bet on the player. It’s basically doubling the pleasure, and I’m here for it.
Take Jaxon Smith-Njigba last year, for example. I was very high on JSN as a fantasy pick, so he was an easy selection in this article 12 months ago (Over 950.5 receiving yards at -110). After opening the season with six 100+ yard performances in his first eight games, JSN crushed the Over before Thanksgiving in his ninth game of the season.
On the flip side, my top player fade and Under for the season was Saquon Barkley, who I was down on for fantasy, and that one was probably a dub by Turkey Day as well.
My starting point for 2026’s list of early bets was to check the award-winning projections over at Fantasy Points, and I looked for players on my player target/avoid list for fantasy drafts who also have discrepancies in the site projections. Some of the deviations are minor, but most of the players have considerable discrepancies between the O/U total and our stat projections for the upcoming season.
We’ll start with the positive with 10 players who are good fantasy picks and worth betting Overs on, and I’ve also added five players who I think will fail to meet expectations and make for good Under plays. I don’t know if I can duplicate my 11-4 record on these picks last year, but barring injury devastation, I’m certainly envisioning some serious profitability.
The Overachievers
Justin Herbert Regular Season Passing Yards: OVER 3574.5 (-110, DK)
We’re projecting 3,783, which is only 5.8% more, but I’m incredibly high on Herbert and the Chargers and believe the planets have aligned for a career year. He has his star OTs back, along with a fully-stocked receiving corps with 6-7 strong options for new OC Mike McDaniel, who has been elite at scheming up big plays.
Herbert was seventh in catchable throw percentage last year despite their decimated OL, so with better health around him this year, he should consistently slice and dice NFL defenses and garner serious MVP consideration. As only the ninth or 10th QB off the board in fantasy drafts, he’s an excellent value pick.
David Montgomery Regular Season Rushing Yards: OVER 774 (-110, DK)
Fantasy Points is projecting 1,115 rushing yards in 15 games on 263.2 carries (ninth-most), which is a whopping 44% higher than this line.
I won a Montgomery rushing yards Under in this article last year, but it was very close, and he still got to 719 yards (92.4% of this 774 number) while playing behind a stud talent in Detroit. Rookie Woody Marks was solid in 2025, but it looks like the books are overrating his presence this year.
Houston was a 12-win playoff team last season with a struggling QB and has arguably the best defense in the league, so the durable Montgomery should easily clear 200 totes. He’s also hit this number in five-for-five seasons with 200+ carries.
He’s not a sexy fantasy pick, but as about the 23rd back off the board, he’s a strong pick as an RB3 or even a viable RB2 for teams that load up on the other skill positions.
Breece Hall Regular Season Rushing Yards: OVER 899.5 (-110, DK)
I hit a play of Over 925.5 rushing yards (-110) with Breece last year, and he beat it by a solid 15%. This year, we’re looking at an improved Jets offense simply because it can’t get any worse.
We’re projecting a healthy 1,071.6 rushing yards from Hall at Fantasy Points, or 19% higher than this total. He’s another year removed from the ACL with no contract concerns, and the Jets last year were quietly ninth in YBC/ATT, 11th in rushing YPG, and had the fifth-lowest stuff rate in the league.
Led by a veteran OC and QB behind a young and solid OL with a strong collection of talent at receiver, a healthy Hall should dominate the backfield touches despite talk of a 2-3 man backfield. I see Hall easily hitting 900+ rushing yards and delivering for fantasy players—even if the Jets keep jetting.
Josh Downs Regular Season Receiving Yards: OVER 649.5 (-110, DK)
Downs ran only 18.5% of his routes from the outside last season, but Michael Pittman and his 345 outside routes are gone, as is A.D. Mitchell, who was traded after playing eight games with the Colts last year.
Indy signed veteran Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, but he’s more of a downfield specialist, and Downs is the more skilled receiver, so he’s expected to soak up some of the reps outside in 12 personnel, which is a big development for the usually slot-centric Downs.
It also helps explain how we’re projecting 768.3 receiving yards at Fantasy Points, which is a healthy 18.2% higher than this total.
Saquon Barkley Regular Season Rushing Yards: OVER 1099.5 (-110, DK)
I was all-in on the Under last year (Under 1500.5 rushing yards), and that was an easy win. This year, with the total down 36.4%, I’m going Over with confidence.
With Philly’s solid OL in relatively good shape, Fantasy Points is projecting 1,323.5 rushing yards, or 20.3% more. The 29-year-old has been very durable the last four seasons, and the offense can only improve after last season’s horrendous showing.
D’Andre Swift Regular Season Rushing Yards: OVER 799.5 (-110, DK)
Swift has exceeded expectations three years in a row, logging 223 or more carries in each of the last three seasons.
His rushing data was strong last year, ranking top 15 among 49 RBs with 100 or more carries in rushing yards per game, YPC, explosive run percentage, and success rate. He’s not tremendous in terms of yards gained after contact, and he’s mediocre on man/gap runs (4.16 YPC), but 65.5% of his runs last year were on zone concepts (sixth-most), and his 5.27 YPC on those runs was sixth-best.
The Bears have an issue at LT with starter Ozzy Trapilo expected to miss most of the season, but Chicago’s running game and OL are strong overall, posting the sixth-best YBCO/Att (2.18) and ranking top five in attempts, rushing yards per game, YPC, and success rate, per Fantasy Points Data.
They did absolutely nothing in the offseason to upgrade their RB room, and backup Kyle Monangai is not a serious threat to Swift’s role as the top back. Fantasy Points is projecting another 200+ carries from Swift and 956.4 rushing yards, or 19.2% more, so this looks like a win if he hits 200+ carries for the fourth season in a row.
Bijan Robinson Regular Season Rushing Yards: OVER 1174.5 (-110, DK)
Backup Tyler Allgeier is off the roster, and I don’t see new No. 2 Brian Robinson handling the 143 carries Allgeier was fed last year. Bijan is a good candidate to hit 300+ carries (we’re projecting the second-most carries this year at 293).
We’re also projecting 1,370 rushing yards at Fantasy Points, or 16.6% more than this total. Bijan has never missed a game due to injury, and the Falcons led the league in yards after contact last year, thanks largely to him.
Atlanta was also top 12 in attempts, rushing yards, and YPC last year. The strength of this weak offense is still the OL and running game, so this one’s a lock if he can avoid a serious injury.
Saquon Barkley Regular Season Rushing TDs: OVER 7.5 (+100, DK)
What we’ve learned about Philly is that, as long as one of HC Nick Sirianni’s flunkies isn’t running the offense, like in 2024 when Barkley had 10 rushing TDs, Philly is in good shape on that side of the ball.
No one knows how prevalent the Tush Push will be under the new OC, but our projections maven at Fantasy Points is an Eagles fan and lives in the Philly area, and he’s projecting 10.1 rushing TDs, or 34.6% more than this total.
That’s a solid cushion with the offense in better hands under well-respected new OC Sean Mannion.
Christian Watson Regular Season Receiving Yards: OVER 799.5 (-110, DK)
We’re projecting 894.8 receiving yards at Fantasy Points, which is a modest 11.9% more than this line.
But this play simply comes down to health, since Watson was insanely good last year, producing against man (an excellent 2.55 YPRR) and zone (a stellar 2.87 YPRR).
The Packers are now ready to make him a foundational player, which is why they signed him to a four-year extension in June worth up to $110.5 million, with a $31 million signing bonus.
He was only 51st in the NFL last season in targets per route run, so his volume is set to rise on a thinned-out Packers receiving corps with Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks off the roster. The only thing standing between cashing this bet is a serious injury.
Brian Thomas Jr. Regular Season Receiving Yards: OVER 724.5 (-115, DK)
Backing BTJ was one of the worst things I did last year, but I can partially make up for it by taking advantage of his dreadful season, which has lowered his O/U line by 37% compared to 2025.
Fantasy Points is projecting 855.3 receiving yards, which is 18% higher than this total. We also have BTJ with the most projected yards on the Jaguars, although it’s close with Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers.
The pads have yet to go on, so it’s early, but Thomas has consistently drawn praise this offseason, and his growth in year two of this offense has been very apparent. The coaches know him better and he knows the offense better, so I expect a solid bounceback.
The Underachievers
Trey McBride Regular Season Receiving Yards: UNDER 999.5 (-110, DK)
He’s a stud, but I just don’t see McBride collecting as many targets this year in the new offense run by Mike LaFleur, who’s a good bet to run a lot more 3-WR sets than last year with Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, and new addition Kendrick Bourne.
The Cardinals last year used 12 personnel on 28.86% of their offensive snaps, higher than the league average of 21.79%, so there will be a lot more target competition for McBride this year.
McBride’s volume is also going to take a hit with rookie Jeremiyah Love likely getting 275+ opportunities, including 50+ targets. Finally, McBride’s production may be compromised if the team decides to evaluate rookie QB Carson Beck late in the season, which seems likely.
We’re only projecting 775.8 receiving yards at Fantasy Points, which is 22% lower than this total.
Drake London Regular Season Receiving Yards: UNDER 1149.5 (-110, DK)
We’ve seen the top wideout exceed 1,000 yards under Kevin Stefanski multiple times in recent seasons (Jerry Jeudy, Amari Cooper), but it didn’t happen in Stefanski’s first season in Cleveland in 2020.
It’s a new system for everyone, including Tua Tagovailoa, who averaged only 190 passing yards per game in Miami last year. We’ll probably also see Michael Penix, who was somehow only 62nd in the NFL last year in catchable throw percentage and dead last among 29 QBs with 300+ dropbacks.
We’re projecting London to finish only 16th in receiving yards among wide receivers with 964.3 yards, which is 19.2% lower than this total.
Mike Evans Regular Season Receiving Yards: UNDER 899.5 (-115, DK)
The odds are better for the over (-110), so the books are leaning under for Evans, who we have projected for 863.3 receiving yards. That’s only 4% lower than this number.
I usually back older receivers who are Canton-bound, and this is a player who has posted 1,000+ yards 11 seasons in a row. But Evans is well over 30 now (33 in August), and he’s had lingering hamstring issues dating back to 2019.
Plus, San Francisco has been an injury wasteland for a number of years, so I’m fully preparing for some time missed for Evans.
Jayden Daniels Regular Season Passing TDs: UNDER 21.5 (-115, DK)
I can’t say I’m in love with this play, and I’m fine with Daniels as a fantasy pick at his ADP.
But we’re projecting 18.8 TD passes, which is 14.3% lower than this total. New OC David Blough has never called plays or run an offense, and Washington is a little light on receiver talent.
It took 17 games for Daniels to get to 25 TD passes as a rookie in 2024, but we’re also only projecting 14.5 games due to lingering concerns about his availability.
A.J. Brown Regular Season Receiving Yards: UNDER 1124.5 (-110, DK)
I do believe the marriage between Drake Maye and Brown will go well, since Maye’s accuracy is pinpoint and he excels on many of the same routes that Brown does.
But Brown has dealt with right knee issues since the 2020 season, so it’s not a stretch to believe he could miss some time. Brown should be the unquestioned top target, but they do have up to five very capable wideouts along with a pair of receiving tight ends.
We’re projecting 1,058 yards at Fantasy Points, which is only 6% lower than this total, but we also have Brown only 19th in targets this year with 106.8.
John Hansen is the founder and majority owner at FantasyPoints.com and Fantasy Points Data. He’s also the host of “Prop Points” on VSiN Monday through Friday from 1-2 p.m. ET.
