With the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award, the last decade has really been a showcase for elite signal-callers, and the 2025 season was no different. Matthew Stafford took home the honors, leading the league with 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdown passes while throwing just eight interceptions for a 12-win Rams team.
That’s the blueprint that keeps winning this award: elite production, a palatable number in the interceptions column, and a team that’s winning games. Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen — the three winners before Stafford — each checked those boxes.
Mahomes built his case on prolific passing and AFC dominance. Jackson and Allen added a little flair, bringing a rushing dimension that made them nearly impossible to stop. Stafford won by being the most efficient passer in the league, in the best passing offense in football. There’s no one way to do it, but winners generally play the quarterback position for good teams, posting stupid numbers in the process.
Saquon Barkley basically wrote the definitive case against non-QBs winning MVP in 2024. Philadelphia’s star back ran for 2,005 yards, punched in 13 touchdowns, chipped in 33 catches for another 278 yards, and helped Philadelphia hoist the Lombardi Trophy. That’s an all-time season by any measure, and the award still went to a quarterback.
Non-quarterbacks don’t get shut out of MVP voting because they’re underperforming; they get shut out because voters have essentially pre-determined who’s eligible. Wide receivers are also absent in this conversation, and defensive players are a complete afterthought. Until that changes, betting MVP means betting a quarterback.
Given all of that, let’s look at some quarterbacks worth targeting in the 2026 NFL MVP market (with odds from DraftKings Sportsbook).
Dak Prescott (13-1)
It’s always a little concerning backing a trendy MVP candidate, which surely describes Prescott as the leader of the biggest brand in football. However, Prescott has already shown us that he has MVP-level upside, throwing for 37 touchdowns in 2021. The signal-caller is also fresh off a year in which he posted the fourth-highest PFF passing grade (85.4) amongst qualified quarterbacks. On top of that, he has been near the top of the league in passing yards on several occasions, and it isn’t out of the question that he’ll be the league leader in 2026.
Prescott is very comfortable in the Brian Schottenheimer offense, his offensive line should be a little better in 2026, and he has one of the best groups of weapons in the NFL. CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson make up a trio that’s probably only matched by the one Stafford has in Los Angeles. And unlike Stafford, Prescott doesn’t have to deal with voter fatigue.
The Dallas defense is also expected to be much better in 2026. With the team having brought in a new defensive coordinator, while also adding some game-changing talent, there’s a good chance the Cowboys perform like a top-15 defense. That gives Prescott a shot at leading Dallas to 11 or 12 wins, which should be good enough for him to get himself into the mix.
Out of all of the chalkier options, it’s hard not to like Prescott the most. The only other one worth considering is Justin Herbert, who should thrive in Mike McDaniel’s offense. However, that is a run-heavy scheme, so the numbers might not be on par with Prescott’s. We know Prescott will get to air it out as much as he wants.
Jayden Daniels (20-1)
Daniels looked like he was going to be a serious MVP candidate heading into 2025, but he was only able to play seven games because of injuries. Well, Daniels is now healthy heading into the 2026 season, the new David Blough-led offense is designed to keep him upright, and the all-world dual-threat upside is still there. That means Daniels should be one of the top quarterbacks in football again.
Realistically, we’re only two years removed from Daniels finishing as PFF’s fifth-best quarterback (90.6), throwing for 3,568 yards with 25 touchdowns and only nine picks. He also rushed for 891 yards and six scores that year. If he can post similar numbers in Year 3, while cutting down on his turnovers a touch, there’s no reason the Commanders superstar can’t re-establish himself as an MVP candidate.
Not only is Daniels healthy right now, Terry McLaurin also happens to be heading into camp at 100%. That means Daniels has his No. 1 wideout ready to rock.
Let’s just sit back and see what Blough’s offense can do for the third-year signal-caller. Would it really shock you if Daniels throws for 4,000 yards with 30 touchdowns, with Washington returning to double-digit wins?
Brock Purdy (20-1)
Purdy missed a good chunk of the 2025 season, with Mac Jones filling in admirably for San Francisco’s franchise QB. However, when Purdy was on the field, he delivered. Last season, Purdy was PFF’s sixth-ranked quarterback (85.4), doing his usual work as an efficient thrower and under-the-radar runner. All of that should be amplified in 2026.
There’s a good case to be made that Purdy has the most electric group of weapons that he has had since being drafted by San Francisco. The 49ers have had some good pass-catchers since then, so that might be a bold statement. But San Francisco was able to sign Mike Evans, a walking 1,000-yard receiving threat and massive red-zone target, during the offseason. The 49ers also happen to have Ricky Pearsall and Christian Kirk ready to flank him at wide receiver, and George Kittle remains one of the league’s top pass-catching tight ends.
The presence of Christian McCaffrey also happens to make Purdy better. Purdy gets to work off an incredible running game, plus McCaffrey is an elite receiver out of the backfield.
It just feels like the stars are aligning for Purdy to turn in a career year, and that should put him in the running for MVP. He was pretty close to winning this award in 2023, when he threw for 4,280 yards with 31 touchdowns and 11 picks, while also rushing for 144 yards and two scores. He might be able to top those numbers in 2026. Playing in the Kyle Shanahan offense, with this group of skill-position players, should bring the best out of Purdy.
Kyler Murray (40-1)
Finding a deep cut to win the MVP award isn’t something that tends to be profitable. The winner of this award usually ends up being someone we expect greatness from. However, Murray’s situation is a unique one. This is a former No. 1 overall pick, capable of making all the throws while also being a serious threat with his legs. Murray just hasn’t found himself in favorable situations…until now.
Murray is now playing for one of the best play-callers in football, with Kevin O’Connell having pressed the right buttons for several different quarterbacks early in his career. O’Connell is the one directly responsible for getting Sam Darnold’s career back on track, and Murray is the newest car he’s looking to restore in the garage.
Murray has an elite group of weapons in Minnesota, as he’ll be throwing to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson. The Vikings also made a nice move in bringing in Jauan Jennings over from the 49ers. If the Minnesota offensive line can just stay healthy, Murray should post career numbers. And while many have those numbers being enough for him to win Comeback Player of the Year, why not take it a step further?
The Vikings were a popular pick to win the NFC North a year ago, but the team’s 4-8 start proved to be too much to overcome. The Vikings ended up winning their last five games of the year, but it was too little, too late. Well, perhaps everyone was a year early in expecting greatness from this group. And if Minnesota can find a way to win 11 or 12 games, it’ll likely mean that Murray balled out.
