Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, December 22, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 8+ Days scenario are 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS (76.5%) hosting teams playing on 2 Days Rest over the last three seasons.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+8 vs HOU)
* Under the total was 12-1 (92.3%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 4th Home in 10+ Days game versus a road team on 3rd in 8+ Days scenario.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-SAC (o/u at 237)
* Home teams are 8-1 ATS in the last nine of the DEN-NOP series
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+9.5 vs. DEN)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Match (FADE): HOME TEAMS – SACRAMENTO ML
This last system involves totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-SAC
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 37-18 SU and 34-18-3 ATS (65.4%) hosting teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
12/22: TORONTO vs. Houston
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+8 v.s HOU)
* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 37-37 SU and 42-31-1 ATS (57.5%) hosting teams playing a 3rdStraightRoad game over the last two seasons.
12/22: NEW ORLEANS vs. Denver
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+9.5 vs. DEN)
* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 8+ Days scenario are 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS (76.5%) hosting teams playing on 2 Days Rest over the last three seasons.
12/22: TORONTO vs. Houston
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+8 vs HOU)
* Under the total was 82-55 (59.9%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rdin8+Days game.
12/22: Under the total in TORONTO-HOUSTON
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-TOR (o/u at 224.5)
* Over the total was 85-59 (59%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rdStraightRoad game.
12/22: Over the total in NEW ORLEANS-DENVER
System Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-NOP (o/u at 232)
* Under the total was 13-1 (92.3%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing its 3rd Home in 4 Days and the road team was playing a 2 Days Rest game.
12/22: Under the total in SACRAMENTO-INDIANA
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-SAC (o/u at 237)
* Under the total was 90-52 (63.4%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words two pretty rested teams.
12/22: Under the total in SACRAMENTO-INDIANA
12/22: Under the total in NEW ORLEANS-DENVER
12/22: Under the total in HOUSTON-TORONTO
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all three games today
* Under the total was 54-35 (60.7%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
12/22: Under the total in TORONTO-HOUSTON
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-TOR (o/u at 224.5)
* Under the total was 25-9 (73.5%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Straight Home game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
12/22: Under the total in SACRAMENTO-INDIANA
12/22: Under the total in TORONTO-HOUSTON
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-TOR (o/u at 224.5), IND-SAC (o/u at 237)
* Under the total was 18-4 (81.8%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Home in 8+ Days game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
12/22: Under the total in TORONTO-HOUSTON
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-TOR (o/u at 224.5)
* Under the total was 12-1 (92.3%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 4th Home in 10+ Days game versus a road team on 3rd in 8+ Days scenario.
12/22: Under the total in SACRAMENTO-INDIANA
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-SAC (o/u at 237)
* DENVER is on a 3-11 ATS skid (7-7 SU) playing its 3rd Straight Road game since the start of last season
12/22: Fade DENVER at New Orleans
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (-9.5 at NOP)
* TORONTO is on a 31-16 SU and 30-17 ATS run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
12/22: TORONTO vs. Houston
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+8 vs. HOU)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NEW ORLEANS +9.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO -2 (+2.7)
2. HOUSTON -8 (+1.7)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NEW ORLEANS +9.5 (+2.8)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON -8 (+2.3)
2. SACRAMENTO -2 (+0.6)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DEN-NOP OVER 232.5 (+0.3)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOU-TOR UNDER 224 (-3.9)
2. IND-SAC UNDER 236.5 (-0.6)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NEW ORLEANS +9.5 (+2.7)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO -2 (+2.9)
2. HOUSTON -8 (+2.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DEN-NOP OVER 232.5 (+0.6)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOU-TOR UNDER 224 (-2.3)
2. IND-SAC UNDER 236.5 (-0.2)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(525) HOUSTON at (526) TORONTO
* Over the total has converted in five of the last six matchups between HOU and TOR, but did lose last time
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(527) INDIANA at (528) SACRAMENTO
* Underdogs are 6-2 ATS in the last eight of the IND-SAC nonconference series
Trend Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS
(529) DENVER at (530) NEW ORLEANS
* Home teams are 8-1 ATS in the last nine of the DEN-NOP series
Trend Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS
* Under the total is 6-1-1 in the last eight games of New Orleans hosting Denver
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
