The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, December 29, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board. 

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Favorites have covered nine straight ATS in the BKN-ORL series
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-7 vs. BKN)

* In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 139-48 SU and 112-74-1 ATS (60.2%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 vs. MEM)

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 33-10 SU and 25-17-1 ATS (59.5%) hosting teams playing in a H2A b2b game over the last three seasons.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+1.5 vs. ATL) 

*NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 263-207 SU but 204-254-12 ATS (44.5%) over the last six seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-11.5 vs. IND)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, INDIANA, MEMPHIS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, MEMPHIS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, ATLANTA, INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – ORLANDO ML, BOSTON ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, HOUSTON ML, MINNESOTA ML 

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BKN-ORL, MIA-HOU 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-TOR

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – SAS-MIN
UNDER – BKN-ORL, MIA-HOU

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-HOU 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 33-10 SU and 25-17-1 ATS (59.5%) hosting teams playing in an H2A b2b game over the last three seasons.
12/29: TORONTO vs. Atlanta
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+1.5 vs. ATL)

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 29-21 SU and 29-19-2 ATS (60.4%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
12/29: ORLANDO vs. Brooklyn
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-7 vs. BKN) 

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 18-32 SU and 17-32-1 ATS (34.7%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
12/29: Fade OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Memphis
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 vs. MEM) 

* Under the total was 107-79-1 (57.5%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
12/29: Under the total in ORLANDO-BROOKLYN
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-ORL (o/u at 203.5) 

* Over the total is 31-19 (62%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
12/29: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-MEMPHIS
System Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-OKC (o/u at 230.5) 

* ATLANTA is on 8-32 SU and 8-31-1 ATS skid when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
12/29: Fade ATLANTA at Toronto
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-1.5 at TOR) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 139-48 SU and 112-74-1 ATS (60.2%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 vs. MEM) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-79 (53.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 171-144 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 240-183 (56.7%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-BOS (o/u at 233.5) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 213-123 SU but 151-179-6 ATS (45.8%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 31-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-11.5 vs. IND) 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 117-118 SU but 122-98-5 ATS (55.5%), including 87-51-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+1.5 vs ATL)

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 138-53 SU and 114-75-2 ATS (60.3%) in their last 191 tries.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-7 vs. BKN) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 263-207 SU but 204-254-12 ATS (44.5%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-11.5 vs. IND) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 278-233 (54.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-OKC (o/u at 230.5) 

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 282-257 SU and 243-283-11 ATS (46.2%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-11.5 vs. IND)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 169-141 SU and 172-129-9 ATS (57.1%) run.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+7 at ORL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 206-259-3 ATS (44.3%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-117 SU and 60-79-5 ATS (43.2%).
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+1.5 vs. ATL)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TORONTO +1.5 (+2.2)
2. MIAMI +8.5 (+1.9)
3. MEMPHIS +6.5 (+1.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). TORONTO +1.5 (+3.1)
SAN ANTONIO +7 (+3.1)
3. MEMPHIS +6.5 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -11.5 (+2.4)
2. HOUSTON -8.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-HOU OVER 216.5 (+1.8)
2. IND-BOS OVER 233.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-MIN UNDER 215 (-2.9)
2. ATL-TOR UNDER 240 (-2.7)
3. BKN-ORL UNDER 203.5 (-1.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TORONTO +1.5 (+2.1)
2. MIAMI +8.5 (+1.2)
3. SAN ANTONIO +7 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -6.5 (+0.5)
2. ORLANDO -7 (+0.3)
3. BOSTON -11.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MIA-HOU OVER 216.5 (+2.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). BKN-ORL UNDER 203.5 (-2.5)
ATL-TOR UNDER 240 (-2.5)
3. IND-BOS UNDER 233.5 (-2.1) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(553) BROOKLYN at (554) ORLANDO
* Favorites have covered nine straight ATS in the BKN-ORL series
Trend Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS 

(557) INDIANA at (558) BOSTON
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the IND-BOS series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(559) MEMPHIS at (560) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Home teams have won eight straight ATS in meetings between MEM and OKC
Trend Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS 

(561) MIAMI at (562) HOUSTON
* MIAMI has dominated the series with Houston recently, going 12-3-1 ATS since 2017
Trend Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS 

(563) SAN ANTONIO at (564) MINNESOTA
* SAN ANTONIO has covered four of the last five ATS when visiting Minnesota
Trend Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS

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