Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, November 10, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* UNDERDOGS are 12-1-1 ATS in the last 14 HOU-DET matchups
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+4 vs HOU)
* OVER the total has converted in all eight GSW-OKC matchups since 2023
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 228)
* TORONTO is 20-8 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 3rd Straight Road game
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-LAL (o/u at 236)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): NYK-IND (o/u at 229)
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 197-243-1 ATS (44.8%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Matches (FADE): PHOENIX (+1 vs. SAC)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, INDIANA, DENVER, PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, MIAMI, CHARLOTTE, SACRAMENTO, TORONTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 39-24 ATS record (61.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 63 games was only 3.0% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, INDIANA, PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, MIAMI, TORONTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, INDIANA, OKLAHOMA CITY, DENVER, PORTLAND
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL on ML): ORLANDO, MINNESOTA, DENVER, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL on ML): ORLANDO, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, CHARLOTTE, TORONTO
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-DET, BOS-MIL, NYK-IND, CHA-PHI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while the majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIA-MIN
UNDER – HOU-DET, CHA-PHI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): NYK-IND
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends
The following are 40 of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 36-54 SU and 34-56 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
11/10: FADE GOLDEN STATE at Oklahoma City
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+6 at OKC)
* MILWAUKEE is on a 30-35 SU and 20-44-1 ATS skid entering 2024-25 when playing on standard One Day Rest
11/10: FADE MILWAUKEE vs. Boston
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+4.5 vs. BOS)
* PORTLAND is 24-60 SU and 30-54 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
11/10: FADE PORTLAND vs. Memphis
System Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+1 vs. MEM)
* TORONTO is 20-8 OVER the total since 2022 when playing a 3rd Straight Road game
11/10: OVER the total in TORONTO-LA LAKERS
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-LAL (o/u at 236)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 133-46 SU and 109-69-1 ATS (61.2%) run.
System Matches (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6 vs. GSW)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 181-33 SU but just 96-115-3 ATS (45.5%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches (FADE): LA LAKERS (-10.5 vs. TOR)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 85-72 (54.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 161-138 (53.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 226-162 (58.2%).
System Matches (PLAY): OVER – TOR-LAL (o/u at 236)
UNDER – WSH-ORL (o/u at 222.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 201-118 SU, but 143-171-5 ATS (45.5%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 29-32-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-4 vs. DAL)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 235-251 SU and 216-265-5 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-4 vs. DAL)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 247-238 SU and 218-254-11 ATS (46.2%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, MIAMI
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 128-151 SU and 126-146-7 ATS (46.3%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+7.5 at MIN)
Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 150-57 SU and 115-90-2 ATS (56.1%) over the last four seasons. (GSW, POR, DEN 11/10)
System Match (PLAY ALL): DENVER (-4 vs. DAL)
Also PORTLAND (*if they become favored versus MEM, +1 currently*)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.4% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (165-182 ATS, 47.6%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (224-215 ATS, 51%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-4.5 vs. CHA)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 197-243-1 ATS (44.8%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-109 SU and 58-74-3 ATS (43.9%).
System Matches (FADE): PHOENIX (+1 vs. SAC)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). CHARLOTTE +4.5 (+3.4)
DALLAS +4 (+3.4)
3. INDIANA +3 (+2.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO -10.5 (+1.5)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -6 (+1.4)
3. HOUSTON -4 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +4.5 (+6.5)
2. DALLAS +4 (+3.1)
3. TORONTO +10.5 (+2.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -7.5 (+0.5)
2. NEW YORK -3 (+0.4)
3. BOSTON -4.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-OKC OVER 228 (+5.5)
2. CHA-PHI OVER 212 (+5.4)
3. BOS-MIL OVER 228 (+4.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WSH-ORL UNDER 222.5 (-3.1)\
2. DAL-DEN UNDER 231.5 (-2.8)
3. MIA-MIN UNDER 218 (-1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +4 (+3.4)
2. INDIANA +3 (+1.7)
3. MILWAUKEE +4.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS -10.5 (+4.3)
2. HOUSTON -4 (+3.3)
3. ORLANDO -10.5 (+3.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-PHI OVER 212 (+4.2)
2. BOS-MIL OVER 228 (+3.0)
3. HOU-DET OVER 218 (+2.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-MIN UNDER 218 (-3.3)
2. WSH-ORL UNDER 222.5 (-2.8)
3. MEM-POR UNDER 227 (-0.9)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) HOUSTON at (502) DETROIT
* UNDERDOGS are 12-1-1 ATS in the last 14 HOU-DET matchups
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS
(507) WASHINGTON at (508) ORLANDO
* OVER the total is 6-1 in the WSH-ORL series since 2023
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(511) GOLDEN STATE at (512) OKLAHOMA CITY
* OVER the total has converted in all eight GSW-OKC matchups since 2023
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(513) CHARLOTTE at (514) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA has covered five of the last seven home matchups with CHA
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS
(517) SACRAMENTO at (518) PHOENIX
* SACRAMENTO is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with rival PHX
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS
(519) MEMPHIS at (520) PORTLAND
* UNDER the total is 5-1 in the last six MEM-POR games in Portland
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(521) TORONTO at (522) LA LAKERS
* Over the total is 8-1 in last nine games of the TOR-LAL nonconference series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
