The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, November 3, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 63-74 SU & 75-60-3 ATS (55.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+4 at NOP) 

* Over the total has converted in nine straight games between DET and BKN
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 219) 

* ORLANDO is on a 14-13 SU and 21-6 ATS run when playing a 3rd Straight Road game
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+7 at DAL) 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (-2.5 vs. DET)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BROOKLYN, DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN 

This last system involves totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, the majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while the majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): DET-BKN, ORL-DAL

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 133-91 SU but 98-123-3 ATS (44.3%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-7 vs ORL)

* DALLAS is 16-13 SU but 7-20-2 ATS over the last four seasons when playing at home after 2 Days Rest
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-7 vs ORL) 

* ORLANDO is on a 14-13 SU and 21-6 ATS run when playing a 3rd Straight Road game
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+7 at DAL) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NO QUALIFYING TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEMS TODAY (next couple tomorrow)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 112-116 SU but 117-96-5 ATS (54.9%), including 85-50-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+4 at NOP) 

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 161-135 SU and 167-120-9 ATS (58.2%) run.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+2.5 at BKN)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 63-74 SU and 75-60-3 ATS (55.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+4 at NOP) 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
DETROIT +2.5 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS -4 (+0.8)
2. DALLAS -7 (+0.4) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
ORLANDO +7 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS -4 (+1.7)
2. BROOKLYN -2.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-NOP UNDER 230.5 (-1.6)
2. DET-BKN UNDER 219 (-0.8)
3. ORL-DAL UNDER 219 (-0.1) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DETROIT +2.5 (+0.7)
2. ORLANDO +7 (+0.1) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
NEW ORLEANS -4 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-BKN OVER 219 (+3.5)
2. ORL-DAL OVER 219 (+1.9) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
ATL-NOP UNDER 230.5 (-1.9)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(539) DETROIT at (540) BROOKLYN
* Over the total has converted in nine straight games between DET and BKN
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(541) ATLANTA at (542) NEW ORLEANS
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the ATL-NOP series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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