The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, April 10, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 75-64-3 (54%). Here are today’s results:

– NOP-MIL OVER 220.5
Team strength system #5, Makinen effective strength ratings projection, and recent head-to-head trend all favor Over

-BROOKLYN (+13.5 vs ATL)

BKN is underpriced in all three Makinen ratings projections + recent head-to-head trend favors BKN

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* NEW YORK is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight visits to Detroit
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (+3.5 at DET) 

* NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 293-306 SU and 269-322-8 ATS (45.5%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+9.5 at IND) 

* UNDERDOGS are 14-2-1 ATS in the last 17 of Hawks-Nets head-to-head series
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+13.5 vs. ATL)

* OVER the total is 11-1 in the last 12 of Pelicans-Bucks head-to-head nonconference series at Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-MIL (o/u at 220.5) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, the handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – BROOKLYN ML, MILWAUKEE ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, a ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA ML 

These last three systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-BKN, MIN-MEM 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIN-MEM
UNDER – ATL-BKN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have hit at a 57.1% rate since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-BKN

The following are 40 of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* ATLANTA is 51-29 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6  Days game
4/10: Over the total in ATLANTA-BROOKLYN
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-BKN (o/u at 232.5) 

* DETROIT is on a 19-9 Under the total run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
4/10: Under the total in DETROIT-NEW YORK
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-DET (o/u at 229) 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 56-51 SU and 45-59-3 ATS skid in the last 107 when playing on standard One Day Rest
4/10: Fade MILWAUKEE vs. New Orleans
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-13.5 vs. NOP)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 263-47 SU but just 145-159-6 ATS (47.7%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): MILWAUKEE (-13.5 vs NOP) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 109-90 (54.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 221-174 (55.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 282-217 (56.5%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): ATL-BKN (o/u at 232.5), NOP-MIL (o/u at 220.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 310-265 (53.9%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-IND (o/u at 233.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 293-306 SU and 269-322-8 ATS (45.5%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+9.5 at IND)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 335-301 SU but 288-328-18 ATS (46.8%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+9.5 at IND) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 167-179 SU and 156-180-10 ATS (46.4%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+9.5 at IND)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 35-74 SU but 60-49 ATS (55%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY ATS): NEW ORLEANS (+13.5 at MIL) 

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 126-23 SU but 64-82-3 ATS (43.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE ATS): MILWAUKEE (-13.5 vs NOP)
*Watch for INDIANA vs CLE, -9.5 currently 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +13.5 (+4.5)
2. CLEVELAND +9.5 (+3.4)
3. MEMPHIS +2 (+2.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +13.5 (+8.0)
2. MEMPHIS +2 (+5.0)
3. NEW ORLEANS +13.5 (+2.8) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-IND OVER 233.5 (+0.9)
2. NOP-MIL OVER 220.5 (+0.7)
3. MIN-MEM OVER 231 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYK-DET UNDER 229 (-1.1)
2. ATL-BKN UNDER 232.5 (-0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +13.5 (+3.4)
2. MEMPHIS +2 (+2.9)
3. CLEVELAND +9.5 (+1.6) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MILWAUKEE -13.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-IND OVER 233.5 (+2.0)
2. MIN-MEM OVER 231 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-BKN UNDER 232.5 (-3.6)
2. NYK-DET UNDER 229 (-2.8)
3. NOP-MIL UNDER 220.5 (-1.6) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) NEW YORK at (502) DETROIT
* NEW YORK is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight visits to Detroit
Trend Match: PLAY NEW YORK

* Over the total is 8-2 in last 10 of the NYK-DET head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(505) ATLANTA at (506) BROOKLYN
* Underdogs are 14-2-1 ATS in the last 17 of the ATL-BKN head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS

(507) NEW ORLEANS at (508) MILWAUKEE
* Over the total is 11-1 in the last 12 of the NOP-MIL head-to-head nonconference series at Milwaukee
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(509) MINNESOTA at (510) MEMPHIS
* Road teams are 5-1 ATS in the last two seasons of the MIN-MEM head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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