Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, March 27, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 61-48-2 (56%). Here are today’s results:
– WASHINGTON (+12.5 vs IND)
Extreme stat system #15 and recent head-to-head trend heavily favors WSH + DK Betting Splits system #11 fades IND
– LAL-CHI OVER 234.5
DK Betting Splits system #13, two scheduling situations, both Makinen ratings projections, and recent head-to-head trend all favor Over
– ATLANTA (+1.5 at MIA)
Two DK Betting Splits systems and two extreme stat systems fade MIA + two Makinen ratings projections have ATL underpriced
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Underdogs are 11-1-1 ATS in the last 13 of Rockets-Jazz head-to-head series at Utah
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+13 vs HOU)
* DALLAS is 13-7 SU and 15-5 ATS since the start of last season when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+7 at ORL)
* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 78-86 SU but 94-68-3 ATS (58%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-6 vs. POR)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, the handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, LA LAKERS, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, OKLAHOMA CITY, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI
Here are some more specific money line angles:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – ORLANDO ML, CLEVELAND ML, MIAMI ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, SACRAMENTO ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January ’23. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, a ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA ML, HOUSTON ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-WSH, ATL-MIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – IND-WSH, LAL-CHI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – DAL-ORL
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 156-101 SU but 112-142-3 ATS (44.1%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 61-43 SU but 45-59 ATS (43.2%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last four seasons.
3/27: FADE CHICAGO vs. LA Lakers
Systems Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+3 vs LAL)
* LA LAKERS are on a 22-31 SU and 22-30-1 ATS skid in the last 53 playing a 3rd in 4 days game
3/27: FADE LA LAKERS at Chicago
Trend Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-3 at CHI)
* Over the total was 38-22 (63.3%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
* LA LAKERS are on a 16-5 Over the total run when playing on the back end of an A2A b2b scheduling scenario
3/27: Over the total in CHICAGO-LA LAKERS
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-CHI (o/u at 236)
* Under the total was 129-102-1 (55.8%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
3/27: Under the total in SACRAMENTO-PORTLAND
System Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-SAC (o/u at 225.5)
* DALLAS is 13-7 SU and 15-5 ATS since the start of last season when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
3/27: DALLAS at Orlando
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+7 at ORL)
* ATLANTA is 49-29 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
3/27: Over the total in ATLANTA-MIAMI
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-MIA (o/u at 227)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 148-53 SU and 120-80-1 ATS (60%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (*if they fall into this line range vs MEM, -10 currently*)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 254-46 SU but just 140-154-6 ATS (47.6%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE ATS): CLEVELAND (-14.5 vs SAS)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 106-88 (54.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 216-169 (56.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 271-210 (56.3%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): IND-WSH (o/u at 235), SAS-CLE (o/u at 236.5), MEM-OKC (o/u at 239.5), HOU-UTA (o/u at 228)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 296-227 SU but 234-274-15 ATS (46.1%) over the last 6 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 41-67-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-1.5 vs ATL)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 284-301 SU and 259-318-8 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-1.5 vs. ATL), OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 vs. MEM)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 327-293 SU but 282-319-17 ATS (46.9%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (+10 at OKC), SACRAMENTO (-6 vs. POR)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 162-175 SU and 153-175-9 ATS (46.6%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (+10 at OKC)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 178-148 SU and 183-134-9 ATS (57.7%) run.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+12.5 vs IND)
Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 191-75 SU and 141-122-3 ATS (53.6%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 vs MEM)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 120-22 SU but 60-79-3 ATS (43.2%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 vs MEM)
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 2.9% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (202-223 ATS, 47.5%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (275-270 ATS, 50.5%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): SACRAMENTO (-6 vs. POR)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 78-86 SU but 94-68-3 ATS (58%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-6 vs. POR)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 248-299-3 ATS (45.3%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-133 SU and 70-88-5 ATS (44.3%).
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 vs. MEM)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +6 (+0.7)
2(tie). ATLANTA +1.5 (+0.6)
MEMPHIS +10 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON -13 (+1.8)
2(tie). INDIANA -12.5 (+1.0)
CLEVELAND -14.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +7 (+3.4)
2. CHICAGO +2.5 (+3.1)
3. SAN ANTONIO +14.5 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. INDIANA -12.5 (+2.1)
2. HOUSTON -13 (+2.0)
3. SACRAMENTO -6 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAL-CHI OVER 234.5 (+4.0)
2. SAS-CLE OVER 236.5 (+2.9)
3. ATL-MIA OVER 226.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. IND-WSH UNDER 235 (-4.3)
2. MEM-OKC UNDER 239.5 (-2.0)
3. POR-SAC UNDER 225.5 (-0.3)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PORTLAND +6 (+0.8)
2. ATLANTA +1.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -14.5 (+1.8)
2. HOUSTON -13 (+0.9)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -10 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAL-CHI OVER 234.5 (+3.4)
2. HOU-UTA OVER 228 (+1.2)
3. DAL-ORL OVER 217.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. IND-WSH UNDER 235 (-3.9)
2. ATL-MIA UNDER 226.5 (-3.0)
3. MEM-OKC UNDER 239.5 (-2.4)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(515) INDIANA at (516) WASHINGTON
* Home teams are 17-3-4 ATS in the last 24 of the IND-WSH head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS
* Over the total is 9-0-1 in the last 10 of head-to-head series at Washington
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(517) SAN ANTONIO at (518) CLEVELAND
* SAN ANTONIO is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games when visiting CLE
Trend Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS
(521) MEMPHIS at (522) OKLAHOMA CITY
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-1 ATS in the last eight head-to-head games versus MEM
Trend Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS
(523) LA LAKERS at (524) CHICAGO
* Over the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of the LAL-CHI head-to-head nonconference series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(525) HOUSTON at (526) UTAH
* Underdogs are 11-1-1 ATS in the last 13 of the HOU-UTA head-to-head series at Utah
Trend Match: PLAY UTAH ATS
