We’re into Game 2s — and the NBA and NHL couldn’t be more different when it comes to the zig-zag theory.
🏀 NBA Playoffs: No zig-zag?
The Magic (+8.5) were the lone road team to break through Sunday, beating the Pistons 112-101. Otherwise, home teams swept — and covered double-digit spreads. That’s after a 4-0 SU & ATS record for home teams on Saturday — and it’s forcing bettors to rethink the zig-zag approach in this league.
Monday’s Game 2s:
Raptors (+8.5) at Cavaliers (222.5), 7 ET (Peacock) — CLE leads 1-0
Hawks (+5.5) at Knicks (216.5), 8 ET (Peacock/NBC) — NY leads 1-0
Timberwolves (+6.5) at Nuggets (230.5), 10:30 ET (Peacock/NBC) — DEN leads 1-0
Makinen Game 2 angles (last nine seasons):
• First-round Game 2 hosts: 57-15 SU, 48-24 ATS (66.7%)
• Game 1 winners at home: 33-18 ATS (64.7%) since 2016
(Though just 2-4 ATS last spring)
👉 Makinen’s full report →
Contest check: VSiN / KillerSports contestants are off to a 36-15 (71%) start.
👉 Leaderboard + today’s picks →
Why the difference?
Steve Makinen’s theory: Early-round NBA series are often mismatches — and when teams fall behind, they’re more likely to shut it down. Add in the premium on rest, and favorites are incentivized to end series quickly rather than let opponents hang around.
Monday’s Game 2s:
Raptors (+8.5) at Cavaliers (222.5), 7 ET (Peacock) — CLE leads 1-0
Hawks (+5.5) at Knicks (216.5), 8 ET (Peacock/NBC) — NY leads 1-0
Timberwolves (+6.5) at Nuggets (230.5), 10:30 ET (Peacock/NBC) — DEN leads 1-0
Makinen Game 2 angles (last nine seasons):
• First-round Game 2 hosts: 57-15 SU, 48-24 ATS (66.7%)
• Game 1 winners at home: 33-18 ATS (64.7%) since 2016
(Though just 2-4 ATS last spring)
👉 Makinen’s full report →
Contest check: VSiN / KillerSports contestants are off to a 36-15 (71%) start.
👉 Leaderboard + today’s picks →
📊 Zach Cohen’s NBA Report
The Pistons, who hadn’t won a home playoff game since 2008, were -8.5 favorites against the Magic in Game 1. It looked like the perfect setup — top seed, rest advantage, opponent coming off a Play-In game.
Instead, Orlando went into Detroit and won by 11, with all five starters scoring in double figures.
The shift was immediate: Detroit dropped from -500 to -190 to win the series at DraftKings.
What to make of it?
We still don’t really know what we’re getting with the Magic. At times this season they’ve looked like a fringe contender — and at others, completely lifeless. But when they’re at their best, they’re dangerous enough to put real pressure on a No. 1 seed that has been questioned all year.
Now the Pistons are in a tough spot. They need to respond at home — and quickly — with Game 2 taking on added urgency.
Looking ahead to Monday:
All three home teams are in position to take 2-0 series leads — and I tend to think they will. That said, this is where things get tricky, and I’ll likely be focusing more on parlays and player props than sides and totals.
👉 Zach’s Best Bets (updated later this morning) →
👉 Hardwood Handicappers podcast →
👉 NBA player props →
Instead, Orlando went into Detroit and won by 11, with all five starters scoring in double figures.
The shift was immediate: Detroit dropped from -500 to -190 to win the series at DraftKings.
What to make of it?
We still don’t really know what we’re getting with the Magic. At times this season they’ve looked like a fringe contender — and at others, completely lifeless. But when they’re at their best, they’re dangerous enough to put real pressure on a No. 1 seed that has been questioned all year.
Now the Pistons are in a tough spot. They need to respond at home — and quickly — with Game 2 taking on added urgency.
Looking ahead to Monday:
All three home teams are in position to take 2-0 series leads — and I tend to think they will. That said, this is where things get tricky, and I’ll likely be focusing more on parlays and player props than sides and totals.
👉 Zach’s Best Bets (updated later this morning) →
👉 Hardwood Handicappers podcast →
👉 NBA player props →
🏒 NHL: Why zig-zag still works
Unlike the NBA, the zig-zag theory still works in the NHL.
Teams that lost the previous game are 533-482 (52.5%) over the last 14 seasons, producing +25.63 units.
Backing Game 1 winners? That’s been a losing proposition (-126 units).
Monday’s games:
• Flyers (+130) at Penguins (-155), 7 ET (ESPN) — PHI leads 1-0
• Senators (+124) at Hurricanes (-148), 7:30 ET (ESPN2) — CAR leads 1-0
• Wild (+114) at Stars (-135), 9:30 ET (ESPN) — MIN leads 1-0
• Ducks (+150) at Oilers (-180), 10 ET (ESPN2)
👉 Makinen betting systems →
👉 Jonathan Davis Best Bets (later today) →
Teams that lost the previous game are 533-482 (52.5%) over the last 14 seasons, producing +25.63 units.
Backing Game 1 winners? That’s been a losing proposition (-126 units).
Monday’s games:
• Flyers (+130) at Penguins (-155), 7 ET (ESPN) — PHI leads 1-0
• Senators (+124) at Hurricanes (-148), 7:30 ET (ESPN2) — CAR leads 1-0
• Wild (+114) at Stars (-135), 9:30 ET (ESPN) — MIN leads 1-0
• Ducks (+150) at Oilers (-180), 10 ET (ESPN2)
👉 Makinen betting systems →
👉 Jonathan Davis Best Bets (later today) →
Steve Makinen’s theory: Early-round NBA series are often mismatches — and when teams fall behind, they’re more likely to shut it down. Add in the premium on rest, and favorites are incentivized to end series quickly rather than let opponents hang around.
⚾ MLB: Patriots Day start
Morning baseball in Boston.
Heads-up: The Red Sox host the Tigers at 11:10 a.m. ET.
Greg Peterson’s play:
Tigers ML +121
Gray has struggled with home runs and strikeouts, while Flaherty’s underlying numbers are stronger — and Boston’s offense has been quiet at home.
👉 Greg’s full card →
👉 More MLB Best Bets later today →
👉 MLB prop projections →
Heads-up: The Red Sox host the Tigers at 11:10 a.m. ET.
Greg Peterson’s play:
Tigers ML +121
Gray has struggled with home runs and strikeouts, while Flaherty’s underlying numbers are stronger — and Boston’s offense has been quiet at home.
👉 Greg’s full card →
👉 More MLB Best Bets later today →
👉 MLB prop projections →
