The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, December 31, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Over the total has converted in eight straight meetings between the Bucks and Pacers in Indiana.
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total in MIL-IND (o/u at 230)

* NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 93-58 SU and 89-60-2 ATS (59.7%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at IND)

* NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any game have produced well the next game as well, going 132-96 SU and 128-95-5 ATS (57.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-5 at LAL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season and a half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1 1/2 seasons, that group produced a 39-24 ATS record (61.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 63 games was only 3.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1 1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, SAN ANTONIO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare games.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season and a half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1 1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – BOSTON ML, SAN ANTONIO ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, PHOENIX ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on HANDLE for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON ML, MILWAUKEE ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have uncovered is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year and a half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-IND, LAC-SAS, CLE-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (OVER or UNDER) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – TOR-BOS
UNDER – MEM-PHX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIN-OKC
UNDER – LAC-SAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-IND, CLE-LAL

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 139-93 SU but 101-128-3 ATS (44.1%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
12/31: FADE LA LAKERS vs. Cleveland
12/31: FADE PHOENIX vs. Memphis
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA LAKERS (+5 vs CLE), PHOENIX (-4.5 vs MEM)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-79 (53.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 171-144 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 242-183 (56.9%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-BOS (o/u at 234.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trends search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 93-58 SU and 89-60-2 ATS (59.7%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at IND)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3-point field goal attempts in a game have responded the next time out by going just 254-269 SU and 232-285-6 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (+5 vs CLE)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next one as well, going 132-96 SU and 128-95-5 ATS (57.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-5 at LAL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 63-16 SU and 44-33-2 ATS (57.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-12 at WSH)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 67-77 SU and 79-63-3 ATS (55.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-3.5 vs. DAL)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 206-260-3 ATS (44.2%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-117 SU and 60-79-5 ATS (43.2%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (+5 vs. CHI), NEW ORLEANS (+5 vs. LAC) 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1 (tie). LA CLIPPERS +4.5 (+2.5)
MINNESOTA +6.5 (+2.5)
3. MEMPHIS +4.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -5 (+2.4)
2. MILWAUKEE -1.5 (+0.3)
3. BOSTON -16.5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS +4.5 (+0.5)
2. TORONTO +16.5 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -5 (+0.1)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -6.5 (+0.7)
3. MILWAUKEE -1.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIL-IND OVER 230 (+1.2)
2. TOR-BOS OVER 233 (+0.9)
3. CLE-LAL OVER 228 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-OKC UNDER 217 (-0.8)
2. MEM-PHX UNDER 236.5 (-0.6)
3. LAC-SAS UNDER 217.5 (-0.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS +4.5 (+2.6)
2. MINNESOTA +6.5 (+2.2)
3. MEMPHIS +4.5 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -5 (+2.2)
2(tie). BOSTON -16.5 (+0.7)
MILWAUKEE -1.5 (+0.7)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEM-PHX UNDER 236.5 (-2.4)
2. MIL-IND UNDER 230 (-2.2)
3. TOR-BOS UNDER 233 (-1.8)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) TORONTO at (502) BOSTON
* UNDERDOGS are 6-2 ATS in the last eight of TOR-BOS rivalry in Boston
Trend Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS

(503) MILWAUKEE at (504) INDIANA
* OVER the total has converted in eight straight meetings between MIL and IND in Indianapolis
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(505) LA CLIPPERS at (506) SAN ANTONIO
* FAVORITES are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings between LAC and SAS
Trend Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS

(507) MINNESOTA at (508) OKLAHOMA CITY
* UNDER the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of MIN-OKC series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(509) CLEVELAND at (510) LA LAKERS
* UNDER the total is 5-1 in the last six of CLE-LAL non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(511) MEMPHIS at (512) PHOENIX
* MEMPHIS is 7-2 ATS in the last nine visits to Phoenix
Trend Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

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