Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, December 4, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 126-93 SU and 123-92-4 ATS (57.2%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-13.5 vs. DET)
ATLANTA is 45-22 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-MIL (o/u at 236)
Under the total was 106-76-1 (58.2%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-LAC (o/u at 213.5)
Underdogs have won eight straight ATS in the IND-BKN series at Brooklyn
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+2.5 vs. IND)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to you, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of home teams playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, INDIANA, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, INDIANA, MILWAUKEE, MINNESOTA
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – BOSTON ML, MILWAUKEE ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-MIL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): ORL-PHI, LAL-MIA, MIN-LAC
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Hosts playing in a A2H b2b game scenario are 16-28 SU and 15-28-1 ATS (34.9%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
12/4: FADE MILWAUKEE vs. Atlanta
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-4 vs. ATL)
* Under the total was 106-76-1 (58.2%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
12/4: UNDER the total in LA CLIPPERS-MINNESOTA
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-LAC (o/u at 213.5)
* Over the total was 84-70 (54.5%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4thin6Days game.
12/4: Over the total in INDIANA-BROOKLYN
System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-BKN (o/u at 225)
* Over the total was 47-39 (54.7%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
12/4: Over the total in BOSTON-DETROIT
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-BOS (o/u at 221)
* Over the total is 29-15 (65.9%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
12/4: Over the total in MILWAUKEE-ATLANTA
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-MIL (o/u at 236)
* INDIANA is 14-31 SU and 14-30-1 ATS in its last 45 3rd Straight Road games
12/4: Fade INDIANA at Brooklyn
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (-2.5 at BKN)
* LA CLIPPERS are on a 17-24 SU and 11-30 ATS skid in its last 41 tries playing a 3rd in 4 days game
12/4: FADE LA CLIPPERS vs. Minnesota
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (+3 vs. MIN)
* LA LAKERS are on a 15-28 SU and 14-28-1 ATS skid in the last 43 playing a 3rd in 4 days game
12/4: Fade LA LAKERS at Miami
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (+2.5 at MIA)
* MIAMI is on a 7-7 SU and 4-10 ATS skid playing at home in a 4th in 6 Days game
12/4: FADE MIAMI vs. LA Lakers
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-2.5 vs. LAL)
* ORLANDO is on a 15-17 SU and 22-10 ATS run when playing a 3rd Straight Road game
12/4: ORLANDO at Philadelphia
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-4 at PHI)
* ATLANTA is 45-22 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
12/4: Over the total in ATLANTA-MILWAUKEE
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-MIL (o/u at 236)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-78 (54.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 164-142 (53.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 233-173 (57.4%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-BOS (o/u at 221)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams, off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored, have gone 136-81 SU but 97-116-4 ATS (45.5%) in the follow-up contest over the last 6 seasons. Included among this is an 83-103 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (-2.5 at BKN)
Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 134-51 SU and 111-72-2 ATS (60.7%) in their last 185 tries.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-2.5 vs. LAL)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 246-259 SU and 225-274-6 ATS (45.1%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-4 vs. ATL), LA CLIPPERS (+3 vs. MIN)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 265-250 SU and 231-271-11 ATS (46%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-4 vs. ATL)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 126-93 SU and 123-92-4 ATS (57.2%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-13.5 vs. DET)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 203-253-2 ATS (44.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-115 SU and 59-78-4 ATS (43.1%).
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-4 vs. ATL)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS +3 (+4.6)
2. DETROIT +13.5 (+1.9)
3. PHILADELPHIA +4 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -4 (+0.4)
2. MIAMI -2.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS +3 (+6.0)
2. BROOKLYN +2.5 (+2.9)
3. DETROIT +13.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO -4 (+2.2)
2. MILWAUKEE -4 (+0.6)
3. MIAMI -2.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAL-MIA OVER 216 (+1.1)
2. IND-BKN OVER 225.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-BOS UNDER 221 (-3.2)
2. ORL-PHI UNDER 209.5 (-2.5)
3. MIN-LAC UNDER 214 (-0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS +3 (+5.2)
2. PHILADELPHIA +4 (+2.9)
3. LA LAKERS +2.5 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. INDIANA -2.5 (+1.5)
2. MILWAUKEE -4 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. IND-BKN OVER 225.5 (+3.0)
2. LAL-MIA OVER 216 (+2.2)
3. MIN-LAC OVER 214 (+1.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-BOS UNDER 221 (-4.9)
2. ORL-PHI UNDER 209.5 (-2.7)
3. ATL-MIL UNDER 236 (-2.1)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(523) ORLANDO at (524) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA is 6-2 ATS in the last eight games hosting Orlando
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS
(525) DETROIT at (526) BOSTON
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six meetings between DET and BOS in Boston, but did lose last time
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(529) INDIANA at (530) BROOKLYN
* Underdogs have won eight straight ATS in the IND-BKN series at Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS
(533) MINNESOTA at (534) LA CLIPPERS
* Underdogs have won six straight ATS in the MIN-LAC series
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS
