Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, November 6, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* PHILADELPHIA is 7-1 ATS in the last eight road matchups against LAC
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 at LAC)
* ORLANDO is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 visits to Indiana
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (+5 at IND)
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 44-63-1 ATS (41.1%) in the next game, including 20-34 ATS (37%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-7.5 at NOP)
* ATLANTA is 41-19 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in NYK-ATL (o/u at 226)
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 93-59 SU and 90-59-3 ATS (60.4%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+1 at CHA)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-SAC (o/u at 238)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, MEMPHIS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, CLEVELAND, OKLAHOMA CITY, TORONTO, PHILADELPHIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, CLEVELAND, DALLAS, PHOENIX, TORONTO, PHILADELPHIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, CHARLOTTE, NEW YORK, MEMPHIS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT ML, LA LAKERS ML
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): TOR-SAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-DAL, TOR-SAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SAS-HOU, PHI-LAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-SAC
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Under the total was 101-69-1 (59.4%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on OneDayRest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
11/6: Under the total in NEW ORLEANS-CLEVELAND
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 223)
11/6: Under the total in DALLAS-CHICAGO
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 236.5)
* CHARLOTTE is 29-73 SU and 37-62-1 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
11/6: Fade CHARLOTTE vs. Detroit
System Match: FADE CHARLOTTE (-1 vs. DET)
* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 35-53 SU and 33-55 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
11/6: Fade GOLDEN STATE at Boston
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (+6 at BOS)
* ORLANDO is on a 14-15 SU and 21-8 ATS run when playing a 3rd Straight Road game
11/6: ORLANDO at Indiana
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (+5.5 at IND)
* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 36-23 SU and 40-19 ATS in its last 59 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
11/6: PHILADELPHIA at LA Clippers
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 at LAC)
* PHOENIX is 17-14 SU but 10-20-1 ATS in its last 31 3rd Straight Home games
11/6: Fade PHOENIX vs. Miami
System Match: FADE PHOENIX (-5.5 vs MIA)
* ATLANTA is 41-19 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
11/6: Over the total in ATLANTA-NEW YORK
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 226)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 132-45 SU and 108-68-1 ATS (61.4%) run.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-6 vs. GSW)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 93-59 SU and 90-59-3 ATS (60.4%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+1 at CHA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 178-33 SU but just 93-115-3 ATS (44.7%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS (-10 vs. CHI), SACRAMENTO (-11 vs. TOR)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, depending upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 84-71 (54.2%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 161-135 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 226-161 (58.4%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): CHI-DAL (o/u at 236.5), TOR-SAC (o/u at 238)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 239-129 SU but just 156-201-11 ATS (43.7%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-7.5 at NOP), PHOENIX (-5.5 vs. MIA)
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 255-199 SU but 197-245-12 ATS (44.6%) over the last 6 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 35-63 ATS.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-6 vs. GSW)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throws attempted trended Under the total the next game, 271-222 (55%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-DEN (o/u at 222.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 233-251 SU and 214-265-5 ATS (44.7%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-1.5 vs. PHI)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 245-237 SU and 217-252-11 ATS (46.3%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 at LAC)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 128-150 SU and 126-145-7 ATS (46.5%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 at LAC)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 120-87 SU and 117-87-3 ATS (57.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7 at DEN)
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 149-57 SU and 115-89-2 ATS (56.4%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-5.5 vs. MIA)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 54-15 SU and 42-25-2 ATS (62.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-7.5 at NOP)
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.8% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (162-181 ATS, 47.2%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (224-215 ATS, 51%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): ORLANDO (+5.5 at IND)
NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have also been a great wager when they are a strong defensive team, as those allowing less than 110 PPG are 46-44 SU and 55-31-4 ATS (64%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+5.5 at IND)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 195-241-1 ATS (44.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-109 SU and 58-74-3 ATS (43.9%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-7.5 at NOP), OKLAHOMA CITY (-7 at DEN)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 44-63-1 ATS (41.1%) in the next game, including 20-34 ATS (37%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-7.5 at NOP)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE +6 (+2.8)
2. MIAMI +5.5 (+1.9)
3. DENVER +7 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -7 (+1.6)
2. INDIANA -5 (+1.1)
3. MEMPHIS -1.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE +6 (+8.4)
2. DETROIT +1 (+1.3)
3. CHICAGO +10 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -7.5 (+3.7)
2. LA CLIPPERS -1.5 (+3.4)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -7 (+2.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOR-SAC OVER 238 (+5.8)
2. PHI-LAC OVER 216 (+2.8)
3. ORL-IND OVER 226.5 (+2.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-HOU UNDER 214.5 (-1.3)
2(tie). DET-CHA UNDER 222.5 (-1.2)
CHI-DAL UNDER 236.5 (-1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS +1.5 (+2.7)
2. NEW ORLEANS +7.5 (+2.0)
3. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO -11.5 (+3.7)
2. CHARLOTTE -1 (+2.4)
3. HOUSTON -6.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-CHA OVER 222.5 (+2.1)
2. PHI-LAC OVER 216 (+0.8)
3. SAS-HOU OVER 214.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOR-SAC UNDER 238 (-2.2)
2. GSW-BOS UNDER 230.5 (-2.1)
3. CHI-DAL UNDER 236.5 (-1.0)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) ORLANDO at (502) INDIANA
* ORLANDO is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 visits to Indiana
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS
(503) DETROIT at (504) CHARLOTTE
* UNDER the total has converted in all six matchups since 2023
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(505) GOLDEN STATE at (506) BOSTON
* UNDER the total is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between GSW and BOS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(507) NEW YORK at (508) ATLANTA
* NEW YORK has covered five of their last six matchups when visiting Atlanta
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS
(509) SAN ANTONIO at (510) HOUSTON
* UNDER the total is 5-0 in the last five games of the SAS-HOU rivalry
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(515) CHICAGO at (516) DALLAS
* FAVORITES have covered five of the last six meetings between CHI and DAL
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS
(517) OKLAHOMA CITY at (518) DENVER
* ROAD TEAMS have covered 11 straight ATS in the OKC-DEN rivalry
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS
* UNDER the total is 6-0 in all six meetings since 2023
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(519) MIAMI at (520) PHOENIX
* PHOENIX is 7-2 ATS in the series with MIA since 2020
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS
(521) TORONTO at (522) SACRAMENTO
* TORONTO is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven visits to Sacramento, but did lose last time
System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS
(523) PHILADELPHIA at (524) LA CLIPPERS
* PHILADELPHIA is 7-1 ATS in the last eight road matchups against LAC
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS* OVER the total is 5-0 in the last five of the PHI-LAC meetings
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
