The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of April 22-24, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:45 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, DENVER, MINNESOTA, LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, NEW ORLEANS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 27-19 ATS record (58.7%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 46 games was only 3.6% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, NEW YORK, DENVER, MINNESOTA, INDIANA, LA CLIPPERS, BOSTON, NEW ORLEANS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, MILWAUKEE, NEW ORLEANS

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an ROI of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% ROI Both of these ROIs are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK ML, MILWAUKEE ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle moneyline wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an ROI of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND ML, NEW YORK ML, DENVER ML, PHOENIX ML, MILWAUKEE ML, DALLAS ML, MIAMI ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a money line wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an ROI of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHOENIX ML, MIAMI ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in ALL 8 GAMES

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): LAL-DEN, IND-MIL, NOP-OKC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in ORL-CLE, PLAY UNDER in PHI-NYK, PLAY UNDER in PHX-MIN, PLAY UNDER in DAL-LAC, PLAY UNDER in MIA-BOS, PLAY UNDER in NOP-OKC

Naturally, being able to predict an upset in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis as well, but perhaps equally important is being able to find the heavier underdogs that wind up being more competitive than expected and push the favorites to the limit in series. Of course, vice versa can be equally profitable, finding favorites that will sweep through a first-round series easily. Take a look at some of these series NBA betting trends based on won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season.

• There is actually a better chance that a #1-#8 or #2-#7 series goes longer if the better seed had a better ATS record in the latter parts of the season. In fact, in 13 of the last 17 series of these seed types that went six or seven games, the better seed had an ever or better ATS record in the last 10 games time period. Watch out for Philadelphia in this scenario, as the 76ers won their final 10 games against the Vegas number. Also, both Chicago & Miami had better last 10 ATS records than Boston & New York.

• The last 10 games outright records can also be an indicator of a #1-#8 or #2-#7 series that could go longer. In ten of the last 17 matchups of those seeds to go six games or longer, the worse seed had an equal or better record in the last 10 games of the regular season. Again, this could be an issue for New York against Philadelphia. The LA Lakers also enjoy this edge over Denver.

• In 12 of the last 13 #4-5 and #3-6 series that ended in upsets (worse seeded team winning), the teams had overall won-lost records within four games of one another. This is in play for all but the Minnesota-Phoenix series in the West for 2024.

• There has been a significant benchmark in the success of the lower-seeded team at 10 wins less than the opponent over the last 10 playoff years. If more than 10 regular season wins separate the teams, only Miami in 2023 has won a series, and the lesser seeds are averaging just 1.26 game wins per series, with eight sweeps in 32 series. Additionally, only four other teams pushed a series to seven games. For 2024, the Celtics are qualifiers.

• When 10 or fewer wins have separated the teams, the worse-seeded team won an average of 2.313 games per series, including 14 of those 48 series wins. Only six times did a team get swept, and only ten other times did it win just a single game. The #5-#7 seeds in both conferences would appear to have the potential to each win at least two games in their respective series.

• Only four of the last 27 playoff better seeds that won at least four more games against the spread in the regular season have lost a series. The 23 winning teams lost only 1.35 games per series as well. In essence, it is important that teams played well against the spread in the regular season. The Minnesota-Phoenix matchup is the only one that qualifies as of Thursday 4/18.

• Using the records from the second half of the season has also revealed quality underdogs. When the worse-seeded team had an equal or better record in the second half of the season, they won eight of the last 17 series while going 53-48 outright in games. This included series wins by the Knicks & Lakers last year. There are three “underdogs” that hold this edge for 2024, Indiana, Orlando, and Dallas.

• Alternatively, when there were five games or better records in the second half of the season for the better seed, all but one of 35 won their series’ while going 137-42 SU. Furthermore, only one other of the 35 worse-seeded teams pushed the series to seven games. Of course, the lone winner in this trend was Miami in 2023. Boston will hold this edge over any of its first-round opponents. New York would have it over Philadelphia.

• There is an interesting benchmark for worse-seeded teams at 48 wins (59%+) or more. Those that reach that regular season mark have gone 6-19 in series, and 63-84 (42.9%) in individual games over the last 10 postseasons. Those that have 58% or less (47-35 in full season) are just 9-46 in series’ and 91-198 (31.5%) in individual games. All the potential first-round “underdogs” that won 48 games are in the West: New Orleans, LA Lakers, Dallas, and Phoenix.

• Of the last 13 better seed sweeps, all 13 had better records in the second half of the season, only one had a worse record in the last 20 games, and only three won fewer of their last 10 games. According to this, Boston and Oklahoma City have the best chance at first-round sweeps, as they are the only teams with advantages over their opponents in all three varying time ranges.

First-Round Game Trends by Line/Total Range

• Big favorites have held a significant edge—Since the start of the 2014 playoffs, NBA first-round favorites of 8.5 points or more are 85-13 SU and 58-40 ATS (59.2%).
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-15 vs MIA)

• First round home favorites of four points or less have proven to be a bad investment lately, as over the last 10 playoff seasons, they are just 37-33 SU and 28-39-1 ATS (41.8%).
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (-3 vs PHX), FADE MILWAUKEE (-1.5 vs IND)

• The last two NBA first-round playoffs saw 49 Unders, 37 Overs – (57%). So far in 2024, there have been 6 Unders, 2 Overs.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING UNDER

• With the meteoric rise in scoring over the last few years in the NBA, it is interesting to note that in the lowest totaled first round playoff games over the last five postseasons, 218 or less, Under the total is 56-33-3 (62.9%). In all games with totals above 218, Over the total is 68-58-2 (54%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: LAL-DEN, IND-MIL
PLAY UNDER in: ORL-CLE, PHI-NYK, PHX-MIN, DAL-LAC, MIA-BOS, NOP-OKC

Last Game Trends

•  Home teams are a better wager when coming off a win in a series – Home teams coming off a win in the prior game of a series are 68-37 SU and 57-48 ATS (54.3%) since 2016. Those coming off a loss are 77-65 SU and 65-74-3 ATS (46.8%) in that same span. Naturally, the latter are often the lower-seeded team in a series, but this is a good indication of how momentum aids a team.
System Matches: PLAY ALL 8 HOME TEAMS

• Blowout losses carry over – There is a bit of misconception when it comes to teams “bouncing back” from rough first-round losses. In fact, teams that lost their previous game by 10 points or more are just 72-130 SU and 85-114-3 ATS (42.7%) in the next contest since 2013. However, they were 11-7 ATS last year, including 8-1 ATS at home.
System Matches: FADE ORLANDO (+5.5 at CLE), FADE LA LAKERS (+7.5 at DEN), FADE PHOENIX (+3 at MIN), FADE INDIANA (+1.5 at MIL), FADE DALLAS (-2.5 at LAC), FADE MIAMI (+15 at BOS)

• Heartbreaking losses have a galvanizing effect – Teams that lose close games, or those decided by 3 points or less, in the first round of the NBA playoffs have bounced back with a 37-12 SU and 33-14-2 ATS (70.2%) mark in the next game since 2014. In the line range of +5 to -5, these teams are on an amazing 23-5 SU and 20-6-2 ATS (83.3%) surge! Of note, only three of last season’s 43 first-round games were decided by 3 points or fewer.
System Matches: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+7.5 at NOP)

First-Round Trends by Game Number

• Over the last four non-neutral playoff seasons, first-round Game Two hosts are on a 21-3 SU and ATS (81.3%) run! This includes a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS mark last year.
System Matches: PLAY ALL 8 HOME TEAMS

• Opening game home winners are a solid Game Two bet. Contrary to popular “yin-and-yang” bettors’ beliefs, home teams that won in Game One of a first-round series are 30-7 SU and 28-9 ATS (75.7%) since 2016.
System Matches: PLAY ALL 8 HOME TEAMS

• Game Twos with double-digit home favorites have gone Under the total at a 14-3 (82.4%) clip since 2013, with only five of the visiting foes eclipsing 100 points.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in MIA-BOS (o/u at 205)

Trends by Seed Number

• #2 seeds have been crazy good as bigger chalk. #2 seeded teams are on a strong run of 66-15 SU and 53-28 ATS (65.4%) when favored by 4.5 points or more.

System Matches: PLAY NEW YORK (-6 vs PHI), PLAY DENVER (-7.5 vs LAL)

• #2 seeds start fast. #2 seeded teams are on a run of 37-7 SU and 30-14 ATS (68.2%) in the first two games of first round series over the last 11 years.
System Matches: PLAY NEW YORK (-6 vs PHI), PLAY DENVER (-7.5 vs LAL)

First-Round Game Scoring Trends

• Success in first-round games comes with topping the 117-point mark, as teams that have scored 118 points or more are on a 100-27 SU and 99-28 ATS (78%) run over the last five postseasons.

• In terms of points allowed, 99 points is the key benchmark. Teams that have allowed 98 points or fewer in the last five first-round playoff seasons are 77-12 SU and 74-13-2 ATS (85.1%).

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is obviously still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. At this point, with over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what has been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

DALLAS boasts an impressive 17-3 SU and 16-4 ATS (80%) record this season as a single-digit road favorite.
4/23 at LA Clippers
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-2.5 at LAC)

INDIANA has been at its best against divisional opponents so far this season, going 11-7 SU and ATS (61.1%).
4/23 at Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (+1.5 at MIL)

The LA LAKERS have gone 27-15 Over the total (64.3%) on the road so far this season.
4/22 at Denver
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 223.5)

MILWAUKEE has struggled in the ordinary One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 26-24 SU but 18-32 ATS (36%).
4/23 vs Indiana
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-1.5 vs IND)

ORLANDO has thrived in the commonplace One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 35-15 SU and 34-16 ATS (68%).
4/22 at Cleveland
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (+5.5 at CLE)

PHOENIX is 11-6-1 Over the total (64.7%) when playing in the second of consecutive games against non-divisional conference opponents in the 2023-24 season.
4/23 at Minnesota
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 213)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 25-10 SU and 24-11 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
4/24 vs New Orleans
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs NOP)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 83-69 (54.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 158-131 (54.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 219-151 (59.2%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in MIA-BOS (o/u at 205)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 233-126 SU but just 153-195-11 ATS (44%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs NOP)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 248-192 SU but 189-239-12 ATS (44.2%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 34-61 ATS.
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-3 vs PHX)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 231-243 SU and 212-257-5 ATS (45.2%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (+2.5 vs DAL)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 237-230 SU and 210-244-11 ATS (46.3%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-15 vs MIA)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 156-132 SU and 162-118-8 ATS (57.9%) run.
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-7.5 vs LAL), PLAY MIAMI (+15 at BOS)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 114-82 SU and 112-81-3 ATS (58%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-5.5 vs ORL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine different NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS for GAME 2

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +1.5 (+1.8), 2. PHILADELPHIA +6 (+1.5), 3. LA CLIPPERS +2.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -7.5 (+1.4), 2. MINNESOTA -3 (+0.9), 3. BOSTON -15 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS +2.5 (+2.7), 2. PHILADELPHIA +6 (+1.2), 3. LA LAKERS +7.5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -5.5 (+1.6), 2. BOSTON -15 (+1.5), 3. OKLAHOMA CITY -7.5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-NYK OVER 205 (+7.0), 2(tie). IND-MIL OVER 222.5 (+2.8) and NOP-OKC OVER 211.5 (+2.8)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-CLE UNDER 203 (-1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS +7.5 (+1.7), 2. LA CLIPPERS +2.5 (+1.5), 3. MIAMI +15 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -7.5 (+1.6), 2. MINNESOTA -3 (+0.9), 3. CLEVELAND -5.5 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-NYK OVER 205 (+9.5), 2. IND-MIL OVER 222.5 (+5.9), 3. NOP-OKC OVER 211.5 (+5.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) ORLANDO at (502) CLEVELAND
* Favorites are 7-2 in the last nine games in the series
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

(503) PHILADELPHIA at (504) NEW YORK
* Under the total is 10-3 since 2019 in the series at NEW YORK
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(505) LA LAKERS at (506) DENVER
* DENVER has won the last six ATS against LAL
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

Tuesday, April 23, 2024

(509) PHOENIX at (510) MINNESOTA
* PHOENIX is 15-4 ATS since 2018 in games vs. MIN (including 9-1 ATS in the last 10)
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS

(513) DALLAS at (514) LA CLIPPERS
* Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine meetings
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(511) INDIANA at (512) MILWAUKEE
* INDIANA is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight games vs. MIL
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

* Over the total 8-3 in the last 11 meetings
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

Wednesday, April 24, 2024

(519) NEW ORLEANS at (520) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Road teams are 15-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings (including 9-0 ATS in the last nine)
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS

(517) MIAMI at (518) BOSTON
* MIAMI is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games at Boston
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS

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