The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, April 28, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wager. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, LA CLIPPERS, INDIANA, MINNESOTA

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): MINNESOTA

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an ROI of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% ROI Both of these ROIs are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK ML, INDIANA ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle moneyline wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an ROI of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML, DALLAS ML, INDIANA ML, MINNESOTA ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an ROI of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): NEW YORK ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): LAC-DAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: NYK-PHI, MIL-IND, MIN-PHX
PLAY UNDER in: LAC-DAL

Naturally being able to predict an upset in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis as well, but perhaps equally important is being able to find the heavier underdogs that wind up being more competitive than expected and push the favorites to the limit in series. Of course, vice versa can be equally profitable, finding favorites that easily sweep through a first-round series. Take a look at some of these series trends based on won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season.

• There is actually a better chance that a #1-#8 or #2-#7 series goes longer if the better seed had a better ATS record in the latter parts of the season. In fact, in 13 of the last 17 series of these seed types that went six or seven games, the better seed had an ever or better ATS record in the last 10 games time period. Watch out for Philadelphia in this scenario, as the 76ers won their final 10 games against the Vegas number. Also, both Chicago and Miami had better last 10 ATS records than Boston and New York.

• The last 10 games outright records can also be an indicator of a #1-#8 or #2-#7 series that could go longer. In ten of the last 17 matchups of those seeds to go six games or longer, the worse seed had an equal or better record in the last 10 games of the regular season. Again, this could be an issue for New York against Philadelphia. The LA Lakers also enjoy this edge over Denver.

• In 12 of the last 13 #4-5 and #3-6 series that ended in upsets (worse seeded team winning), the teams had overall won-lost records within four games of one another. This is in play for all but the Minnesota-Phoenix series in the West for 2024.

• There has been a significant benchmark in the success of the lower seeded team at 10 wins less than the opponent over the last 10 playoff years. If more than 10 regular season wins separate the teams, only Miami in 2023 has won a series, and the lesser seeds are averaging just 1.26 game wins per series, with eight sweeps in 32 series. Additionally, only four other teams pushed a series to seven games. For 2024, the Celtics are qualifiers.

• When 10 or fewer wins have separated the teams, the worse-seeded team won an average of 2.313 games per series, including 14 of those 48 series wins. Only six times did a team get swept, and only ten other times did it win just a single game. The #5-#7 seeds in both conferences would appear to have the potential to each win at least two games in their respective series.

• Only four of the last 27 playoff better seeds that won at least four more games against the spread in the regular season have lost a series. The 23 winning teams lost only 1.35 games per series as well. In essence, it is important that teams played well against the spread in the regular season. The Minnesota-Phoenix matchup is the only one that qualifies as of Thursday 4/18.

• Using the records from the second half of the season has also revealed quality underdogs. When the worse-seeded team had an equal or better record in the second half of the season, they won eight of the last 17 series while going 53-48 outright in games. This included series wins by the Knicks and Lakers last year. There are three “underdogs” that hold this edge for 2024, Indiana, Orlando, and Dallas.

• Alternatively, when there were five games or better records in the second half of the season for the better seed, all but one of 35 won their series’ while going 137-42 SU. Furthermore, only one other of the 35 worse-seeded teams pushed the series to seven games. Of course, the lone winner in this trend was Miami in 2023. Boston will hold this edge over any of its first-round opponents. New York would have it over Philadelphia.

• There is an interesting benchmark for worse-seeded teams at 48 wins (59%+) or more. Those that reach that regular season mark have gone 6-19 in series, and 63-84 (42.9%) in individual games over the last 10 postseasons. Those that have 58% or less (47-35 in full season) are just 9-46 in series and 91-198 (31.5%) in individual games. All the potential first-round “underdogs” that won 48 games are in the West: New Orleans, LA Lakers, Dallas, and Phoenix.

• Of the last 13 better seed sweeps, all 13 had better records in the second half of the season, only one had a worse record in the last 20 games, and only three won fewer of their last 10 games. According to this, Boston and Oklahoma City have the best chance at first-round sweeps, as they are the only teams with advantages over their opponents in all three varying time ranges.

• Big favorites have held a significant edge. Since the start of the 2014 playoffs, NBA first-round favorites of 8.5 points or more are 86-14 SU and 59-41 ATS (59%).
System Matches: PLAY INDIANA (-9.5 vs MIL)

• The last two NBA first-round playoffs saw 49 Unders, 37 Overs – (57%). So far in 2024, there have been 15 Unders, 10 Overs – (60%).
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING UNDER

• With the meteoric rise in scoring over the last few years in the NBA, it is interesting to note that in the lowest totaled first-round playoff games over the last five postseasons, 218 or less, Under the total is 64-39-3 (62.1%). In all games with totals above 218, Over the total is 71-59-2 (54.6%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in ALL 4 GAMES

Last Game Trends

• Home teams are a better wager when coming off a win in a series. Home teams coming off a win in the prior game of a series are 75-42 SU and 62-55 ATS (53%) since 2016. Those coming off a loss are 80-68 SU and 68-77-3 ATS (46.9%) in that same span. Naturally, the latter are often the lower-seeded team in a series, but this is a good indication of how momentum aids a team.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-5 vs. NYK), PLAY DALLAS (-6 vs. LAC), PLAY INDIANA (-9.5 vs. MIL), FADE PHOENIX (+1.5 vs. MIN)

• Blowout losses carry over. There is a bit of misconception when it comes to teams “bouncing back” from rough first-round losses. In fact, teams that lost their previous game by 10 points or more are just 77-137 SU and 92-119-3 ATS (43.6%) in the next contest since 2013. However, they were 11-7 ATS last year, including 8-1 ATS at home. This year so far, they are 5-7 SU and 7-5 ATS.
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (+6 at DAL), FADE NEW YORK (+5 at PHI), FADE PHOENIX (+1.5 vs MIN)

• Heartbreaking losses have a galvanizing effect. Teams that lose close games, or those decided by three points or less, in the first round of the NBA playoffs have bounced back with a 38-15 SU and 34-17-2 ATS (66.7%) mark in the next game since 2014. In the line range of +5 to -5, these teams are on an amazing 23-7 SU and 20-8-2 ATS (71.4%) surge! Of note, only three of last season’s 43 first-round games were decided by three points or fewer.
System Matches: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+9.5 at IND)

First-Round Trends by Game Number

• Game Four home teams in the +3 to -3 line range have fared well recently, going 20-9 SU and 20-8-1 ATS (71.4%) since 2013.
System Matches: PLAY PHOENIX (+1.5 vs MIN)

• Teams down 0-3 in a first-round series are just 12-22 SU and 15-18-1 ATS (45.5%) in their last 34 Game Four tries.
System Matches: FADE PHOENIX (+1.5 vs MIN)

Trends by Seed Number

• #2 seeds have also bounced back quickly from losses, 18-3 SU and 16-5 ATS (76.2%) in their last 21.
System Matches: PLAY NEW YORK (+5 at PHI)

• #3 seeds bounce back on the road after losses. Third-seeded teams are on a run of 11-5 SU and 13-3 ATS (81.3%) on the road after losing the prior game in a first-round series.
System Matches: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+9.5 at IND)

• #4 seeds have been brutal in Games Three and Four, with a 14-33 SU and 16-30-1 ATS (34.8%) record in such games of their first-round series since 2013.
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (+6 at DAL)

• #4 seeds have tended to stack losses, as they are just 25-33 SU and 20-38 ATS (34.5%) since 2013 in same series games following a loss.
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (+6 at DAL)

Trends by teams closing out series or facing elimination

• Small favorites/underdogs closing out series’ have also been solid of late – teams attempting to close out a series in a non-Game Seven scenario and playing as underdogs or favorites of two points or less are on an 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS (75%) run in their last 16 tries.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-1.5 at PHX)

First-Round Game Scoring Trends

• Success in first-round games comes with topping the 117-point mark, as teams that have scored 118 points or more are on a 107-28 SU and 106-29 ATS (78.5%) run over the last 5+ postseasons.

• In terms of points allowed, 99 points is the key benchmark. Teams that have allowed 98 points or fewer in the last 5+ first-round playoff seasons are 86-14 SU and 83-15-2 ATS (84.7%).

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these angles will apply the rest of the way.

INDIANA has been at its best against divisional opponents so far this season, going 13-7 SU and 12-8 ATS (60%).
4/28 vs Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-9.5 vs MIL)

MILWAUKEE has struggled in the ordinary One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 26-25 SU but 18-33 ATS (35.3%).
4/28 at Indiana
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (+9.5 at IND)

PHOENIX is 13-6-1 Over the total (68.4%) when playing in the second of consecutive games against non-divisional conference opponents in the 2023-24 season.
4/28 vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY OVER in MIN-PHX (o/u at 212)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

INDIANA is 60-38 Over the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
4/28 vs Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY OVER in MIL-IND (o/u at 216.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 123-35 SU and 102-56 ATS (64.6%) run.
System Matches: PLAY DALLAS (-6 vs LAC)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 234-126 SU but just 154-195-11 ATS (44.1%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match: FADE INDIANA (-9.5 vs MIL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX +1.5 (+3.6), 2. NEW YORK +5 (+0.8), 3. LA CLIPPERS +6 (+0.6)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: INDIANA -9.5 (+1.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS +6 (+2.0), 2. PHOENIX +1.5 (+0.4), 3. NEW YORK +5 (+0.2)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: INDIANA -9.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-IND OVER 216.5 (+0.5), 2. LAC-DAL OVER 209 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-PHX UNDER 212 (-4.2), 2. NYK-PHI UNDER 209.5 (-2.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX +1.5 (+3.5), 2(tie). NEW YORK +5 (+0.8) and LA CLIPPERS +6 (+0.8)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: INDIANA -9.5 (+1.4)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-IND OVER 216.5 (+1.2), 2. LAC-DAL OVER 209 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-PHX UNDER 212 (-3.6), 2. NYK-PHI UNDER 209.5 (-1.6)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

Sunday, April 28, 2024

(549) NEW YORK at (550) PHILADELPHIA
* Home teams have won three of the last four ATS in the series
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

(551) LA CLIPPERS at (552) DALLAS
* Under the total is 10-1 in the last 11 head-to-head meetings
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(553) MILWAUKEE at (554) INDIANA
* Underdogs have won the last five ATS in the series
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS

* Over the total 10-3 in the last 13 meetings
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(555) MINNESOTA at (556) PHOENIX
* Over the total is 3-1 in the last four of the series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

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