The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, March 20, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 178-220 SU and 173-221-4 ATS (43.9%) (sub-system: 18-47 SU and 20-43-2 ATS (31.7%) vs. opponents giving up <= 108 PPG) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (+15.5 vs BOS) 

* In WC Northwest divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game have their totals go Over at a 32-14 (69.6%) rate in the last 46 instances.
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-MIN (o/u at 231.5) 

* Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 78-100-1 ATS (43.8%) in the next game, including 37-51 ATS (42%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+3.5 at HOU)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* NEW YORK is just 6-7 SU and 3-10 ATS (23.1%) vs. the current lowest scoring teams in the league, scoring <114 PPG
Trend Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-17.5 at BKN) 

* BROOKLYN is 23-11 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since February 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-BKN (o/u at 214.5) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 62-53 SU and 64-49 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+4.5 at DET) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 62-53 Over the total vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
* GOLDEN STATE is 138-104 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-DET (o/u at 217.5) 

* ATLANTA is 138-107 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
* HOUSTON is 22-11 Under the total (66.7%) at home this season
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in ATL-HOU (o/u at 227.5)

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 113-89 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-MIN (o/u at 231.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(567) GOLDEN STATE at (568) DETROIT
* Road teams are 4-2 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in the last six of the GSW-DET non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+4.5 at DET) 

(569) NEW YORK at (570) BROOKLYN
* NEW YORK has won 13 straight SU versus intrastate foe Brooklyn (going 9-3-1 ATS)
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-17.5 at BKN) 

(571) ATLANTA at (572) HOUSTON
* Over the total is 5-0-1 in the last six matchups between Atlanta and Houston at the Toyota Center
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-HOU (o/u at 227.5) 

(573) PORTLAND at (574) MINNESOTA
* Home teams are 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS in divisional matchups between POR and MIN since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-2.5 vs POR) 

(575) BOSTON at (576) MEMPHIS
* Under the total has converted in all three meetings between Boston and Memphis at FedEx Forum since the start of the 2022-23 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-MEM (o/u at 229.5)

(577) TORONTO at (578) DENVER
* Over the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the Raptors-Nuggets non-conference set in Denver
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-DEN (o/u at 237.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 138-114 (54.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 261-216 (54.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 346-280 (55.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BOS-MEM (spread +15.5, total 229.5)
UNDER – NYK-BKN (spread +17.5, total 214.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Western Northwest Division Betting System #2:
In Western Northwest divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game have their totals go Over at a 32-14 (69.6%) rate in the last 46 instances.
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-MIN (o/u at 231.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 178-220 SU and 173-221-4 ATS (43.9%) (sub-system: 18-47 SU and 20-43-2 ATS (31.7%) vs. opponents giving up <= 108 PPG) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (+15.5 vs BOS)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 97-24 SU and 67-51-3 ATS (56.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-17.5 at BKN) 

NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 138-106-2 (56.6%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-BKN (o/u at 214.5)

NBA Streak Betting System #12:
Teams on losing streaks of five games or more have struggled as divisional underdogs, going 17-64 SU and 33-45-3 ATS (42.3%) since the start of the 2023-24 season.
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+17.5 vs NYK) 

NBA Streak Betting System #13:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 38-92 SU but 70-60 ATS (53.8%) over the last five seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): BROOKLYN (+17.5 vs NYK) 

NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 78-100-1 ATS (43.8%) in the next game, including 37-51 ATS (42%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+3.5 at HOU) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 8:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, BOSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT, BOSTON, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT ML, HOUSTON ML, MINNESOTA ML, DENVER ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-BKN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – GSW-DET

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +17.5 (+3.0)
2. ATLANTA +3.5 (+1.7)
3. MEMPHIS +15.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -2.5 (+0.5)
2. DETROIT -4.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +15.5 (+4.6)
2. BROOKLYN +17.5 (+3.6)
3. ATLANTA +3.5 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). DETROIT -4.5 (+0.3)
DENVER -6.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-BKN OVER 214.5 (+3.4)
2. TOR-DEN OVER 237.5 (+2.2)
3. ATL-HOU OVER 227.5 (+1.9) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-MIN UNDER 231.5 (-2.6)
2. BOS-MEM UNDER 229.5 (-0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +17.5 (+1.6)
2. ATLANTA +3.5 (+1.9)
3. MEMPHIS +15.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-DEN OVER 237.5 (+1.4)
2. GSW-DET OVER 217.5 (+0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-MIN UNDER 231.5 (-4.2)
2. NYK-BKN UNDER 214.5 (-3.9)
3. ATL-HOU UNDER 227.5 (-2.7)

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