Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for this weekend’s NBA playoff games. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams that lose close games, or those decided by 3 points or less, in the first round of the NBA playoffs have bounced back with a 45-21 SU and 41-23-2 ATS (64.1%) mark in the next game since 2014. In the line range of +5 to -5, these teams are on an amazing 28-10 SU and 25-11-2 ATS (69.4%) surge!
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-2.5 at ATL)
* #4 seeds have tended to stack losses, as they are just 31-35 SU and 25-41 ATS (37.9%) since 2013 in same series first round
games following a loss.
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-3.5 at TOR)
* BOSTON is 22-4 Under the total playing its 4thin10+Days games since Jun 2024
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-PHI (o/u at 214.5)
NBA First Round Trends/Systems
First Round Game Trends by Line/Total Range
Big favorites have held a significant edge – Since the start of the 2014 playoffs, NBA first round favorites of 8.5 points or more are 106-17 SU and 73-50 ATS (59.3%).
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at PHX)
Bigger road favorites are also a solid bet – Only 13 of the last 64 road favorites of 4.5 points or more have lost outright, going 51-13 SU and 40-23-1 ATS (63.5%).
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO (-5.5 at POR), BOSTON (-6.5 at PHI)
With the meteoric rise in scoring over the last few years in the NBA, it is interesting to note that in the lowest totaled first round playoff games over the last six postseasons, 218 or less, Under the total is 92-68-5 (57.5%). In all games with totals above 218, Over the total is 80-73-2 (52.3%).
Trend Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-ORL (o/u at 214.5), OKC-PHX (o/u at 213.5), NYK-ATL (o/u at 214.5), BOS-PHI (o/u at 214.5), LAL-HOU (o/u at 208.5)
Last Game Trends
A long-standing trend of home teams being a better wager when coming off a win in a series has turned the last three playoff years. In fact – Home teams coming off a win in the prior game of a series are 35-29 SU but 26-38 ATS (40.6%). Those coming off a loss are 33-22 SU and 32-23 ATS (58.2%) in that same span. There is seemingly a huge reliance on the court edge. This 17.6% ATS swing is a good indication of how home court advantage can swing momentum in a series.
Trend Matches: PLAY – ORLANDO (+2.5 vs DET), PHOENIX (+9.5 vs OKC), PORTLAND (+5.5 vs SAS), PHILADELPHIA (+6.5 vs BOS), HOUSTON (-5.5 vs LAL)
FADE – ATLANTA (+2.5 vs NYK), MINNESOTA (+1.5 vs DEN), TORONTO (+3.5 vs CLE)
Blowout losses carry over – There is a bit of a misconception when it comes to teams “bouncing back” from rough first round losses. In fact, teams that lost their previous game by 12 points or more are just 71-129 SU and 84-114-2 ATS (42.4%) in the next contest since 2013.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): ORLANDO (+2.5 vs DET), PHOENIX (+9.5 vs OKC), DENVER (-1.5 at MIN), CLEVELAND (-3.5 at TOR), PORTLAND (+5.5 vs SAS)
Heartbreaking losses have a galvanizing effect – Teams that lose close games, or those decided by 3 points or less, in the first round of the NBA playoffs have bounced back with a 45-21 SU and 41-23-2 ATS (64.1%) mark in the next game since 2014. In the line range of +5 to -5, these teams are on an amazing 28-10 SU and 25-11-2 ATS (69.4%) surge!
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-2.5 at ATL)
Teams that shoot 40% or less from the floor in a first round game have been lousy bets in the next contest, going 58-81-3 ATS (41.7%) since 2014.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): ORLANDO (+2.5 vs DET), DENVER (-1.5 at MIN)
First Round Trends by Game Number
Game 3 point spreads most often tell the story, as hosts favored by 4.5-points or more are on an 18-3 SU and 16-5 ATS (76.2%) stretch since 2013, while home dogs of 4.5 points or more are just 4-20 SU and 10-13-1 ATS (43.5%) in that same span.
Trend Match (FADE): PHOENIX (+9.5 vs OKC)
Since you’re probably wondering at this point, game 3 home teams in the +4 to -4 line range are currently on a brutal skid of 13-21 SU and 12-21-1 ATS (36.4%) since 2017.
Trend Match (FADE): ORLANDO (+2.5 vs DET)
Game 4 home teams in the +3 to -3 line range have fared well recently, going 21-11 SU and 21-10-1 ATS (67.7%) since 2013.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+2.5 vs NYK), MINNESOTA (+1.5 vs DEN)
Game 4 home underdogs of 3.5 points or more are just 10-31 SU and 14-26-1 ATS (35%) since 2013.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (+3.5 vs CLE), PORTLAND (+5.5 vs SAS), PHILADELPHIA (+6.5 vs BOS)
Teams down 0-3 in a first round series are just 12-26 SU and 16-21-1 ATS (43.2%) in their last 38 game 4 tries.
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-5.5 vs LAL)
Trends by Seed Number
#1 seeds are good bets when underrated – #1 seeds when in the small favorite (-2.5 or less) or underdog role are 10-7 SU and ATS (58.8%) since 2013 in the first round of the playoffs. They are also 12-5 UNDER the total (70.6%) in those games.
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-2.5 at ORL)
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-ORL (o/u at 214.5)
#2 seeds have been crazy good as bigger chalk – #2 seeded teams are on a strong run of 76-19 SU and 58-37 ATS (61%) when favored by 4.5 points or more.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO (-5.5 at POR), BOSTON (-6.5 at PHI)
#3 seeds bounce back on the road after losses – Third-seeded teams are on a run of 12-10 SU and 14-8 ATS (63.6%) on the road after losing the prior game in a first round series.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK (-2.5 at ATL), DENVER (-1.5 at MIN)
#4 seeds have been brutal in games 3 and 4, with an 18-36 SU and 20-33-1 ATS (37.7%) record in such games of their first round series since 2013.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-3.5 at TOR), LA LAKERS (+5.5 at HOU)
#4 seeds have tended to stack losses, as they are just 31-35 SU and 25-41 ATS (37.9%) since 2013 in same series games following a loss.
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-3.5 at TOR)
Trends by teams closing out series or facing elimination
Small favorites/underdogs closing out series have also been solid of late – teams attempting to close out a series in a non-game 7 scenario and playing as underdogs or favorites of 2 points or less are on a 15-7 SU and 16-6 ATS (72.7%) run in their last 22 tries.
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (+5.5 at HOU)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on the road in a 2 Days Rest scenario are 28-48 SU and 27-46-3 ATS vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last four seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-2.5 at ORL), OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at PHX), CLEVELAND (-3.5 at TOR)
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 98-49 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-ATL (o/u at 214.5), DEN-MIN (o/u at 229.5), SAS-POR (o/u at 218.5), BOS-PHI (o/u at 214.5), LAL-HOU (o/u at 208.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in a 2 Days Rest scenario were 29-8 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since the start of last season
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): DET-ORL (o/u at 214.5), OKC-PHX (o/u at 213.5), CLE-TOR (o/u at 220.5)
* DETROIT is 17-9 Under the total (65.4%) as a favorite of -1.5 to -5 points this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-ORL (o/u at 214.5)
* PHOENIX is 15-19 SU and 12-21 ATS playing in ALL 3rd in 8+ Days games since Oct 2021
* PHOENIX is 10-10 SU and 15-5 ATS (75%) vs. teams currently scoring >118 PPG this season
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of PHOENIX (+9.5 vs OKC)
* ATLANTA is 143-113 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-ATL (o/u at 214.5)
* CLEVELAND is just 21-23 SU and 14-30 ATS (31.8%) vs. teams that have winning records right now this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-3.5 at TOR)
* SAN ANTONIO is 18-19 SU and 13-24 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan 2025
Trend Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-5.5 at POR)
* BOSTON is 22-4 Under the total playing its 4th in 10+ Days games since Jun 2024
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-PHI (o/u at 214.5)
* HOUSTON is 25-17 Under the total (59.5%) at home this season
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 65-22 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
System/Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-HOU (o/u at 208.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for this weekend’s games:
Saturday, April 25, 2026
(541) DETROIT at (542) ORLANDO
* ORLANDO is 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven games hosting Detroit
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+2.5 vs DET)
(543) OKLAHOMA CITY at (544) PHOENIX
* Over the total is 7-2 in the Thunder-Suns series since the start of 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-PHX (o/u at 214.5)
(545) NEW YORK at (546) ATLANTA
* Underdogs are 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of the Hawks-Knicks set
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+2.5 vs NYK)
Sunday, April 26, 2026
(551) CLEVELAND at (552) TORONTO
* Favorites are on 12-2 SU and ATS surge in the last 14 of the CLE-TOR set at Scotiabank Arena
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-2.5 at TOR)
(553) SAN ANTONIO at (554) PORTLAND
* Under the total is 6-2 in the last eight of the Spurs-Trail Blazers series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-POR (o/u at 218.5)
(555) BOSTON at (556) PHILADELPHIA
* Home teams are on a 7-1 ATS surge in the last eight of the PHI-BOS divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+6.5 vs BOS)
(557) LA LAKERS at (558) HOUSTON
* LA LAKERS are 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in the last nine matchups with Houston
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (+5.5 at HOU)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 192-70 SU and 152-109-1 ATS (58.2%) run.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-5.5 vs LAL)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, single-digit favorites have gone 103-41 SU and 85-66-3 ATS (56.3%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-6.5 at PHI)
Western Northwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on a 18-24 SU and 30-12 ATS (71.4%) run since early-November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+1.5 vs DEN)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 353-268 SU but 289-317-15 ATS (47.7%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): TORONTO (+3.5 vs CLE)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 413-358 (53.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-MIN (o/u at 229.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 362-367 SU and 332-389-8 ATS (46%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+3.5 vs CLE)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 211-223 SU and 203-221-10 ATS (47.9%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-6.5 at PHI)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 186-126 SU and 177-128-7 ATS (58%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-2.5 at ORL), MINNESOTA (+1.5 vs DEN)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 102-71 SU and 104-68-1 ATS (60.5%) in their last 173 tries.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-2.5 at ORL), CLEVELAND (-3.5 at TOR)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS THIS WEEKEND
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this weekend’s games as of 12:00 PM ET on Saturday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT, NEW YORK, DENVER, CLEVELAND, SAN ANTONIO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 135-106 ATS record (56%). This has netted +18.4 units and an ROI of 7.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 241 games was only about 5.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, PHOENIX, NEW YORK, CLEVELAND, SAN ANTONIO, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last three playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 149-110 for -44.87 units and an ROI of -18%. Compare this to the usual ML return of just over -5%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will again be very significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, NEW YORK ML, MINNESOTA ML, CLEVELAND ML, SAN ANTONIO ML, BOSTON ML, LA LAKERS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-ORL, OKC-PHX, DEN-MIN, CLE-TOR, SAS-POR
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DET-ORL
UNDER – DEN-MIN
NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +2.5 (+3.5)
2. MINNESOTA +1.5 (+2.2)
3. TORONTO +3.5 (+2.0)
UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -5.5 (+0.8)
2. DETROIT -2.5 (+0.3)
UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +2.5 (+1.8)
2. MINNESOTA +1.5 (+1.4)
3. TORONTO +3.5 (+0.4)
Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -6.5 (+2.0)
2. SAN ANTONIO -5.5 (+0.6)
3. DETROIT -2.5 (+0.4)
Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-MIN OVER 229.5 (+3.1)
2. DET-ORL OVER 214.5 (+1.8)
3. OKC-PHX OVER 213.5 (+0.9)
Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-HOU UNDER 207.5 (-1.5)
2. SAS-POR UNDER 218.5 (-1.1)
3. BOS-PHI UNDER 214.5 (-0.5)
Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +2.5 (+3.7)
2. MINNESOTA +1.5 (+3.0)
3. TORONTO +3.5 (+1.8)
UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DETROIT -2.5 (+0.4)
Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-PHX OVER 213.5 (+3.5)
2. CLE-TOR OVER 220.5 (+2.2)
3. DET-ORL OVER 214.5 (+2.1)
TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-HOU UNDER 207.5 (-2.6)
2. BOS-PHI UNDER 214.5 (-0.6)
