Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, November 30, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA teams playing on 3+ Days Rest scenario are 79-54 SU and 77-55-1 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last three Seasons
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+12.5 vs HOU)
* Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 60-97 SU and 63-89-5 ATS (41.4%) slide, including 34-58-3 ATS (37%) in the last 95 games.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+7.5 at NYK)
* Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 67-93-1 ATS (41.9%) in the next game, including 30-46 ATS (39.5%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11.5 at POR)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 63-26 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
* UTAH is 91-59 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since Nov 2022
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in HOU-UTA (o/u at 232.5)
* NBA teams playing on 3+ Days Rest scenario are 79-54 SU and 77-55-1 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last three Seasons
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+12.5 vs HOU)
* ATLANTA is 125-88 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-PHI (o/u at 230.5)
* LA LAKERS are 31-8 SU and 30-9 ATS playing at home in One Day Rest games since Jan 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-14.5 vs NOP)
* NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 82-42 SU and 75-47-2 ATS vs. teams in OneDayRest games over the last four seasons
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 73-13 SU and 55-28-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since Apr 2024
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY of OKLAHOMA CITY, 1 PLAY of PORTLAND
* SAN ANTONIO is 6-15 SU and 5-16 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan 2025
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario were 50-37 SU and 47-39 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since start of last season
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of SAN ANTONIO (+3.5 at MIN)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(517) HOUSTON at (518) UTAH
* UTAH is 4-2 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in the last six games hosting Houston
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+12.5 vs HOU)
(519) TORONTO at (520) NEW YORK
* NEW YORK is 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in h2h divisional rivalry with Toronto in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-7.5 vs TOR)
(521) BOSTON at (522) CLEVELAND
* Underdogs are on extended 13-3-1 ATS run in the BOS-CLE series
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+6.5 at CLE)
(523) ATLANTA at (524) PHILADELPHIA
* Favorites have won and covered all five meetings between ATL and PHI at the Wells Fargo Center since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 vs ATL)
(525) OKLAHOMA CITY at (526) PORTLAND
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the OKC-POR divisional series at the Moda Center
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-POR (o/u at 233.5)
* Underdogs are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the series in Portland as well
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+11.5 vs OKC)
(527) SAN ANTONIO at (528) MINNESOTA
* Over the total went 3-1 in the Spurs-Timberwolves series last season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-MIN (o/u at 234.5)
(529) MEMPHIS at (530) SACRAMENTO
* Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the MEM-SAC series at the Golden 1 Center
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-SAC (o/u at 233.5)
(531) NEW ORLEANS at (532) LA LAKERS
* LA LAKERS are on a 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 ATS run when playing New Orleans
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-14.5 vs NOP)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based upon various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 167-64 SU and 137-93-1 ATS (59.6%) run.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-7.5 vs TOR)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 124-86 SU and 127-80-3 ATS (61.4%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-2.5 at SAC
NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 124-98 (55.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 229-185 (55.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 313-238 (56.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – HOU-UTA (spread +11.5, total 232.5), NOP-LAL (spread -15.5, total 233.5)
UNDER – OKC-POR (spread +11.5, total 233.5)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, single-digit favorites have gone 88-32 SU and 74-53-3 ATS (58.3%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-7.5 vs TOR)
Western Northwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on a 14-16 SU and 22-8 ATS (73.3%) run since early-November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+11.5 vs OKC)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 60-97 SU and 63-89-5 ATS (41.4%) slide, including 34-58-3 ATS (37%) in the last 95 games.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+7.5 at NYK)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended nder the total the next game, 351-307 (53.3%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-UTA (o/u at 232.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 311-322 SU and 285-340-8 ATS (45.6%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-14.5 vs NOP)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 176-192 SU and 165-193-10 ATS (46.1%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+6.5 at CLE)
Massive rebounding differential
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 97-65 (59.9%) rate since 2021, including 42-22 (65.6%) to the Over in the last 64.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-NYK (o/u at 231.5)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 141-25 SU BUT 71-92-3 ATS (43.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): LA LAKERS (-14.5 vs NOP)
NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 86-19 SU and 58-44-3 ATS (56.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11.5 at POR)
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last six games and are favored by >= 9-points versus a team averaging 114 PPG or more have gone just 28-9 SU but 12-25 ATS (32.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season. Over the total is also 25-12 (67.6%) in these games.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11.5 at POR)
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-POR (o/u at 233.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 67-93-1 ATS (41.9%) in the next game, including 30-46 ATS (39.5%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11.5 at POR)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, MEMPHIS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%). This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, BOSTON, NEW YORK, PORTLAND, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, ATLANTA, MINNESOTA, MEMPHIS, LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOR-NYK, SAS-MIN, NOP-LAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-MIN
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON +6.5 (+0.8)
2. UTAH +12.5 (+0.6)
3. PORTLAND +11.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -3.5 (+2.2)
2. LA LAKERS -14.5 (+1.7)
3. NEW YORK -7.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +7.5 (+2.5)
2. NEW ORLEANS +14.5 (+1.8)
3. BOSTON +6.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -11.5 (+2.4)
2. HOUSTON -12.5 (+1.3)
3. MINNESOTA -3.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-NYK OVER 230.5 (+2.3)
2(tie). HOU-UTA OVER 232.5 (+1.3)
MEM-SAC OVER 233.5 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-POR UNDER 233.5 (-1.6)
2(tie). ATL-PHI UNDER 230.5 (-0.7)
SAS-MIN UNDER 234.5 (-0.7)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: ATLANTA +1.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -3.5 (+1.8)
2(tie). NEW YORK -7.5 (+1.4)
MEMPHIS -2.5 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-UTA OVER 232.5 (+4.7)
2. ATL-PHI OVER 230.5 (+3.0)
3. BOS-CLE OVER 230.5 (+2.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). OKC-POR UNDER 233.5 (-1.2)
NOP-LAL UNDER 233.5 (-1.2)
3. SAS-MIN UNDER 234.5 (-0.9)
