Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, December 4, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 88-36 SU and 75-48-1 ATS (61%).
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (-4.5 at BKN)
* NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 286-156 SU but just 185-244-13 ATS (43.1%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-2.5 vs LAL)
* GOLDEN STATE is 123-91 Over the total playing in the OneDayRest scenario since Dec 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-PHI (o/u at 223.5)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on the road in 2 Days Rest scenario are 14-13 SU but 17-10 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
* BROOKLYN is 4-12 SU and 3-13 ATS playing in the back-to-back away/home scenario since Dec 2020
System/Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (-4.5 at BKN)
* GOLDEN STATE is 123-91 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-PHI (o/u at 223.5)
* TORONTO is 19-12 SU and 19-11 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Oct 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-2.5 vs LAL)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) BOSTON at (502) WASHINGTON
* Home teams are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six of the BOS-WSH series
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+9.5 vs BOS)
(503) GOLDEN STATE at (504) PHILADELPHIA
* Home teams are 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight of the GSW-PHI non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs GSW)
(505) LA LAKERS at (506) TORONTO
* Over the total has converted in all five meetings between LAL and TOR at Scotiabank Arena since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-TOR (o/u at 229.5)
(507) UTAH at (508) BROOKLYN
* Underdogs are 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS in the last seven of the Jazz-Nets non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+4.5 vs UTA)
(509) MINNESOTA at (510) NEW ORLEANS
* Over the total is 7-1 in the MIN-NOP series since the start of the 23-24 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-NOP (o/u at 233.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 125-87 SU and 128-81-3 ATS (61.2%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (-4.5 at BKN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 88-36 SU and 75-48-1 ATS (61%).
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (-4.5 at BKN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 124-99 (55.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 229-186 (55.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 319-241 (57%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – MIN-NOP (spread +11.5, total 234.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 174-100 SU but 128-142-4 ATS (47.4%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 105-125 ATS (45.7%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-11.5 at NOP)
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 96-63-1 ATS (60.4%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+11.5 vs MIN)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 286-156 SU but just 185-244-13 ATS (43.1%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-2.5 vs LAL)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 356-311 (53.4%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UTA-BKN (o/u at 232.5), MIN-NOP (o/u at 234.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 314-325 SU and 288-343-8 ATS (45.6%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+11.5 vs MIN)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 178-193 SU and 167-194-10 ATS (46.3%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-11.5 at NOP)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 76-55 SU and 78-52-1 ATS (60%) in their last 131 tries.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (+2.5 at TOR)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA ML, TORONTO ML
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE +3.5 (+2.0)
2. BROOKLYN +4.5 (+1.5)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -11.5 (+1.1)
2. BOSTON -9.5 (+0.3)
3. TORONTO -2.5 (+0.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS +2.5 (+0.9)
2. BROOKLYN +4.5 (+0.5)
3. GOLDEN STATE +3.5 (+0.1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -9.5 (+3.5)
2. MINNESOTA -11.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-WSH UNDER 229.5 (-1.0)
2. UTA-BKN UNDER 232.5 (-0.7)
3(tie). GSW-PHI UNDER 223.5 (-0.5)
LAL-TOR UNDER 228.5 (-0.5)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE +3.5 (+5.3)
2. BROOKLYN +4.5 (+3.4)
3. WASHINGTON +9.5 (+0.4)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -11.5 (+1.8)
2. TORONTO -2.5 (+0.4)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-WSH OVER 229.5 (+1.0)
2. MIN-NOP OVER 232.5 (+0.8)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-TOR UNDER 228.5 (-2.2)
2. GSW-PHI UNDER 223.5 (-0.8)
