The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA play-in games of Tuesday, April 14 and Wednesday, April 15, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 111-70 SU and 97-82-2 ATS (54.2%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 36-22 ATS (62.1%) as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+5.5 at CHA)

* No. 8-seeded teams have been the most successful play-in teams from a betting perspective, going 6-5 SU and 9-2 ATS in 11 prior games
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): PORTLAND (+2.5 at PHX), ORLANDO (+1.5 at PHI)

* LA CLIPPERS are on a 9-1 ATS surge in their last 10 versus divisional foe Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-4.5 vs GSW)

* Home favorites of -5.5 points or fewer have lost three straight play-in games SU and ATS
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (-5.5 vs MIA), PHOENIX (-2.5 vs POR), PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 vs ORL), LA CLIPPERS (-4.5 vs GSW)

* No. 8-seeded teams have been the most successful play-in teams from a betting perspective, going 6-5 SU and 9-2 ATS in 11 prior games
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): PORTLAND (+2.5 at PHX), ORLANDO (+1.5 at PHI)

* No. 9-seeded teams have been the least successful teams in play-in action, 2-6 SU and ATS in eight games
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (-5.5 vs MIA), LA CLIPPERS (-4.5 vs GSW)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* CHARLOTTE is 160-115 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since March 202
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-CHA (o/u at 230.5)

* LA CLIPPERS is 26-18 SU but 13-31 ATS playing at home in the 2 Days Rest scenario since May 2021
Trend Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-4.5 vs GSW)

* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest scenario were 58-37 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): ORL-PHI (o/u at 221.5), GSW-LAC (o/u at 220.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for today’s games:

(565) MIAMI at (566) CHARLOTTE
* Home teams are 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 of MIA-CHA divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-5.5 vs MIA)

(563) PORTLAND at (564) PHOENIX
* UNDER the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the Trail Blazers-Suns series at Phoenix
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-PHX (o/u at 216.5)

(561) ORLANDO at (562) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games hosting Orlando
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 vs ORL)

(567) GOLDEN STATE at (568) LA CLIPPERS
* LA CLIPPERS are on a 9-1 ATS surge in their last 10 versus divisional foe Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-4.5 vs GSW)

NBA Extreme Stats Next-Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.

Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 111-70 SU and 97-82-2 ATS (54.2%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 36-22 ATS (62.1%) as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+5.5 at CHA)

Playoff large wins also lead to Unders
In the playoffs, NBA teams off a 30-point win have had their next game totals go Under at a 26-12-1 (68.4%) rate in the last five seasons (games include if the previous game was in regular season).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-PHX (o/u at 216.5)

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 353-266 SU but 288-316-15 ATS (47.7%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): PHOENIX (-2.5 vs POR)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 202-179 SU and 208-163-10 ATS (56.1%) run.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-2.5 vs POR)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 1:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly two-thirds of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, PHILADELPHIA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, PHILADELPHIA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE, LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last three playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 149-110 for -44.87 units and an ROI of -18%. Compare this to the usual ML return of just over -5% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE ML, PHOENIX ML, PHILADELPHIA ML, LA CLIPPERS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): POR-PHX, ORL-PHI, GSW-LAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%).
System Match (PLAY): UNDER – POR-PHX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-PHI

NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+1.6)
2. LA CLIPPERS -4.5 (+1.0)
3. PHOENIX -2.5 (+0.8)

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI +5.5 (+1.1)
2. GOLDEN STATE +4.5 (+0.4)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHOENIX -2.5 (+3.4)
2. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+2.3)

Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. POR-PHX UNDER 216.5 (-4.1)
2. ORL-PHX UNDER 221.5 (-1.5)
3. MIA-CHA UNDER 230.5 (-0.9)

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: PORTLAND +2.5 (+0.4)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1 (tie). PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+1.7)
LA CLIPPERS -4.5 (+1.7)
3. CHARLOTTE -5.5 (+1.1)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: ORL-PHI OVER 221.5 (+1.2)TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. POR-PHX UNDER 216.5 (-6.7)
2. GSW-LAC UNDER 220.5 (-3.7)
3. MIA-CHA UNDER 230.5 (-2.0)

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