On Tuesday, May 20th, the Minnesota Timberwolves head to the Paycom Center to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Keep reading for odds, predictions and best bets for this exciting showdown, but make sure you also check out the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for the rest of our written content. We have a ton of people breaking down the action in the postseason. We’re also talking ball regularly on our live programming, so now is a great time to be a VSiN subscriber.
How To Watch Timberwolves vs. Thunder
Where: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
When: 8:30 pm ET on Tuesday, May 20th
Channel: ESPN
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Odds
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of Monday, May 19th at 8:30 pm ET)
Moneyline: Thunder -305, Timberwolves +245
Spread: Thunder -7.5 (-110), Grizzlies +7.5 (-110)
Total: Over 215.5 (-110), Under 215.5 (-110)
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Prediction
I already wrote up the Timberwolves vs. Thunder series, so make sure you check out my big-picture view on the Western Conference Finals. This is a series that I expect to be competitive, as I believe Minnesota has the tools required to disrupt Oklahoma City. But even if I’m wrong about that, I love the Timberwolves to hang around in Game 1 — and possibly even steal it.
The Thunder will be playing this one after having just played a Game 7 on Sunday. I know that was a blowout win for Oklahoma City, but it was still an emotional series and it’s only natural that some of the Thunder players will be exhaling after the win. But if that’s the case, it’s going to be hard for them to come to this game with the hunger they need to comfortably beat the Wolves.
Minnesota has also had five days to rest and get ready for this series, and Chris Finch is a phenomenal head coach. He’s going to have the Timberwolves ready to go out and play this Thunder team, which is something they did well during the regular season. Minnesota splits wins in the four games it played against Oklahoma City this year, and the two wins came without Julius Randle. Well, the Timberwolves are 30-6 in the last 36 games they have played with Randle on the floor, so this is a much better team with the big, bruising forward on the court. Randle is only going to make Minnesota tougher for Oklahoma City to guard, and the fact that he missed the last two games of this series will make it harder for Mark Daigneault to prep his team with just one day off.
I’m also really interested in seeing how Shai Gilgeous-Alexander plays in this game. The MVP frontrunner averaged 35.0 points per game on 51.1%/55.6%/83.3% shooting splits in four meetings with the Timberwolves this season, so everybody is expecting him to torch Minnesota this series. But Gilgeous-Alexander could be a little tired after a long, physical series against Denver, and this Timberwolves team is only going to beat him up more. Minnesota has big, strong wings to throw on him, and the team also has a legitimate rim protector in Rudy Gobert to meet Gilgeous-Alexander, and whoever else, at the rim. Denver didn’t have that. On top of that, Gobert is awesome at getting late-contests on mid-range shooters as a drop defender, and I feel like it’ll take some feeling out for Gilgeous-Alexander to get comfortable.
The Timberwolves are also going to make the Thunder role players knock down 3s, and they haven’t been able to consistently do that in the playoffs. And if they didn’t do it against the Grizzlies and Nuggets, what makes you think they’re going to do it against the Wolves? Minnesota was third in opponent 3s per game allowed (12.7) during the regular season. The Wolves are good about contesting 3s and forcing opponents into bad ones.
It’s also hard to ignore the fact that the Timberwolves were in the Western Conference Finals last year, so they know exactly what to expect at this time of the season. And while the Thunder are crazy talented —and connected on both ends of the floor — we have seen their youth and inexperience come out at some bad times this postseason. Just look at how Jalen Williams has performed. Sure, he played well against the Nuggets in Game 7, but he has consistently pooped the bed as the No. 2 option on this team. So, like Gilgeous-Alexander, it might take Williams some time to feel like himself, only it’ll be the stage, not the matchup, that causes that.
Honestly, the only thing I’m really worried about here is that I feel strongly that Donte DiVincenzo and Nickeil Alexander-Walker will need to play more than Mike Conley in this series, and I’m hoping Oklahoma City doesn’t have to shred the veteran before Finch realizes that. But Finch has been good about making the right rotation calls all year long. He generally does what’s best for the team, even at the expense of a player’s confidence. And Conley has been around the block and wants to win. He should understand that if he’s not shooting well, and he’s being targeted on defense, he’ll be hurting his team.
Another thing with Finch: Minnesota is 16-8 straight-up and 15-9 against the spread when playing on three or more days of rest under him. The Wolves are also 4-3 both SU and ATS in Game 1s under Finch.
Realistically, if Anthony Edwards just shows up and plays a smart game, I see this being a close one with five or so minutes left, which is why I’m taking the points and sprinkling the moneyline. Minnesota knows that this is the more gettable of the two road games to start the series, so there’s going to be some real intensity coming from the visitors.
Bet: Timberwolves +8 (-114 – 1.5 units) & Timberwolves ML (+260 – 0.5 units)
