Tuley: Monday Best Bets in NBA, MLB 5/1

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Sunday Best Bet Results

We got back on the winning track in the Tuley’s Takes home office on Sunday.
We won our posted Best Bet on the Rangers First 5 Innings +115 vs. the Yankees as they jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the bottom of the first inning, led 8-1 after 5 innings and then went on to easily win 15-2 in a rout (for those betting my pic that way). We also hit our second MLB play on the Under 20.5 in the Padres’ 6-4 win over the Giants in Mexico City (after the total was obviously inflated to a record-high MLB betting total as high as 21 after the 16-11 slugfest on Saturday). I don’t know which win was easier!

 

I did lose my play on the Seattle Sea Dragons +5 at the DC Defenders as they lost 37-21 (the line closed DC -1, so we were way ahead of the market, though that ends up being just a small consolation as a loss is a loss). Just like a week ago Sunday when we went 2-1, some Twitter trolls chose to fixate on the loss with my No. 3 play in the XFL while ignoring the other clear-cut winners. I started to engage with them, but backed off as I know our faithful readers “get it.” As I also wrote last week, I’m sure my followers are betting less on my XFL plays and are very happy with Sunday’s results.
Let’s get to Monday’s action as we have two second-round plays in the NBA plus another (hopefully live) MLB F5 underdog.

NBA Monday Best Bets

76ers +10 at Celtics: This line opened Celtics -7 and has been steamed to double digits with Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid being downgraded to doubtful. The star center is obviously important, but the 76ers are on a 6-game winning streak and it hasn’t all been Embiid, so we see this as an overadjustment. In addition, the Celtics are only 8-11-1 ATS as double-digit chalk this season. Their goal is just to win and protect home-court advantage and not necessarily win by margin, so we’ll take the generous points. (Note: on “Follow the Money” Monday morning, our VSiN colleague Mitch Moss pointed out that Embiid has been doubtful 4 times in his playoff career and played in 3 of those games, so there’s a glimmer of hope we might really getting a lot of value here at +10).

Suns +4.5 at Nuggets: The Nuggets won Game 1 of this second-round series comfortably, but we see the Suns rebounding here in the zig-zag role in Game 2. Note: the zig-zag theory (aka “loser of the last”) went 19-15-1 ATS in the first round and we see these teams as evenly matched and this series going at least 6 games and possibly zig-zagging throughout, maybe moreso than any other series. We’ll see.

MLB Monday Best Bet

Red Sox First 5 Innings +120 vs. Blue Jays: We know the Blue Jays have been playing great lately, but this is actually an “anti-swagger” play against them as their 6-game winning streak was snapped on Sunday at home up in Toronto. Both starting pitchers have underperformed so far this season with Corey Kluber (1-4, 6.75 ERA) facing off with Jose Berrios (2-3, 4.71 ERA), but we’re hoping for the Jays to have a little bit of a letdown after having their streak end, at least for the first half of this game.