Tuley: Saturday Best Bets in XFL, NHL, NBA; Friday recaps

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Saturday Best Bets, Friday Recaps

Friday was a losing day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we dropped two NHL First-Period Unders but ended with us paying more attention to basketball as we head into another action-packed sports betting weekend.
We lost our Best Bet on Wild-Maple Leafs 1P Under 1.5 +115 as it looked good to start with no goals in the first 12 minutes but then both teams scored in the final 8 minutes to lose the money (only to have them go scoreless in both the 2nd and 3rd periods before the Wild won just 2-1 in OT). We also lost our secondary play on Avalanche-Jets 1P Under 1.5 +110 as the Avalanche scored 4 goals in the opening 20 minutes.
But at least we didn’t have the Under in the Kings-Clippers game. Let’s lead off the Friday night recaps with that and then look for better plays for Saturday.

 

Friday Recaps

NBA: Kings outlasted Clippers 176-175 in 2OT late Friday in the second-highest game in NBA history as the Kings did it as 6.5-point road underdogs and +205 on the money line (the game flew Over the closing betting total of 239 by a whopping 112 points – it was already Over by 67 points at the end of regulation at 153-153!). Faves went 4-3 SU Friday with Cavaliers-Hawks closing pick-’em, but dogs led 4-3 ATS with the Thunder (+9.5) covering in a 124-115 loss at the Suns. The upsets were by the Knicks (+1 in 115-109 win at Wizards), Hornets (+7 in 121-113 win at Timberwolves) and Kings (+6.5 in 176-175 2OT win at Clippers). Home teams went 5-3 SU and split 4-4 ATS. Over/Unders split 4-4.

Top NBA Resources:

More NBA: Faves lead 581-306 SU on the season with 14 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still hold a slim lead at 441-425-21 ATS (50.9%). Home teams lead 538-363 SU and 465-417-19 ATS (52.7%). In totals wagering, Overs 453-434-14 (51.1%).

CBB: No. 16 Xavier routed Seton Hall 82-60 as the only Top 25 team in action on Friday night and easily covered as a 1.5-point road favorite (went just Over the closing betting total of 141 points).

NHL: Underdogs went 4-2 Friday with outright upsets by the Sabres (+170 in 3-1 win at Panthers), Canadiens (+140 in 5-2 win at Flyers), Kings (+115 in 3-2 win at Islanders) and Avalanche (-105 in 5-1 win at Jets). Road teams also went 4-2. Unders led 4-2.

XFL (ICYMI): Favorites dipped to 3-2 SU on the young season with St. Louis’ 20-18 upset at Seattle on Thursday night as a 4-point road underdog to kick off Week 2 while dogs took 3-2 ATS lead after splitting in Week 1. Home teams also dipped to 3-2 SU with road teams also taking 3-2 ATS lead. Overs’ early lead also dipped to 3-2.

Saturday XFL Best Bet

DC Defenders +4 at Vegas Vipers: This game reminds me a lot of St. Louis’ win over Seattle on Thursday night as we’re getting points with the 1-0 team at an 0-1 team, which worked out just fine as the Battlehawks were covering even before driving for a field goal to get the 20-18 outright win. In addition, just like that game (and with the Chiefs in the Super Bowl), Circa Sports opened DC as a short favorite while the rest of the world made Vegas the chalk. Granted, the Vipers had a chance to force OT vs. Arlington, but they came up short and I’ll stick with the Defenders, who held off Seattle. In addition, this Over/Under is the lowest so far of the young season at 34, so points should be at a premium and make the +4 stronger.

Saturday NHL Best Bet

Ducks +1.5 +150 at Hurricanes: We don’t have any NHL 1P Over/Under plays for Saturday as the top 1P Over teams (Canucks, Ducks, Flames) are facing teams that play more 1P Unders (Bruins, Hurricanes, Avalanche). So, we’ll instead go with the Ducks as a “swagger play” as they snapped a 6-game losing streak on Thursday at the Capitals. Since we regret not betting the money line on Wednesday when we bet the Blackhawks on the puck line but missed out on the +350 payoff when they won outright, we’ll take a little on the ML at +360 here.

Saturday NBA Best Bet

Nuggets +2 at Grizzlies: I’m not too thrilled with any dogs in college basketball on Saturday (the lines seem a little too short on the teams I was considering including Arkansas +7.5 at Alabama, Texas +3.5 at Baylor, Virginia +3 at North Carolina and Saint Mary’s +5 at Gonzaga), but I’ll take the Nuggets in the Association as I think the wrong team is favored. The Nuggets have won 4 straight dating back to before the All-Star Break and 10-2 in their last 12. They’ve also won their last 4 vs. teams with winning records while the Grizzlies have lost 10 of their last 14

Sunday XFL Best Bet

San Antonio Brahmas-Orlando Guardians Under 39: We gave this out early in the VSiN newsletter and the Thursday edition of this column and now there’s mostly 38 and 38.5 out there (note: some books even down to 37.5). I still think it’s playable at those numbers as we haven’t seen enough with these 1-, 2-, 3-point conversion options to make “key numbers” for Over/Under wagers in the XFL. As we saw in Thursday night’s game, it was pretty much a coin-flip, so you need to shop around for the best number as every point (or 2 points or 3) counts.